We’re diving via every league and revealing who our supercomputer’s favorites are in our NCAA males’s basketball convention event predictions.
Upsets. Buzzer-beaters. Unbelievable runs. Epic performances.
March Insanity begins with convention event play that may go a great distance towards figuring out seeds and who will get into 2025 NCAA Match.
Cinderellas will sneak in, bubbles will burst, and the cream will rise to the highest.
Leagues just like the SEC and ACC can have groups doing all they will to spice up their resumes for Choice Sunday. Others might want to win their event with the intention to be one in every of 68. And certain, there are some groups which can be locks to make the Huge Dance however seeking to enhance their seeding.
We’ve simulated every convention event hundreds of instances utilizing TRACR (Workforce Ranking Adjusted for Convention and Roster). It’s a internet effectivity metric that calculates a workforce’s factors per possession on each side of the ball, adjusted for the power of the opponent.
A median workforce is at 0.0, whereas a very good workforce may need a TRACR score of 20 or extra. For example, a workforce with a TRACR score of 20 that averages 70 possessions per sport is projected to outscore a median workforce by .29 factors per possession (20 divided by 70) in a sport. If the sport had 100 possessions, then that 20-some TRACR workforce would outscore the common workforce by about 29 factors.
We’re going to dive via every convention, beginning with the primary league tourneys to get underway this week, and see who our mannequin’s favorites are. The groups inside every convention are ranked by the very best likelihood of profitable the league event, with that likelihood in parentheses.
Notice: Convention event odds for every workforce are their projected odds getting into the convention event. Some conferences are nonetheless ending their common season. These projections will regularly replace after the top of every convention’s common season.
Atlantic Solar
Lipscomb (36.8%)
North Alabama (30.8%)
FGCU (12.4%)
Japanese Kentucky (7.3%)
Queens (6.2%)
Jacksonville (3.6%)
Austin Peay (2.9%)
Central Arkansas (0.3%)
Queens is ineligible for the NCAA Match because it lately transitioned from Division II to Division I. If the Royals do win the ASUN Match, then the automated bid will as a substitute go to the common season champion. Nevertheless, Lipscomb and North Alabama have been co-champions, thus whoever advances farther within the event will get the bid. If they’re eradicated in the identical spherical, Lipscomb will obtain the bid because the No. 1 seed.
Our mannequin provides the highest two seeds a mixed 67.5% likelihood of profitable the event. Lipscomb has been to the NCAA Match simply as soon as, whereas North Alabama is in search of its first look. These two challenge to be a 13 or 14 seed within the NCAA Match in the event that they win.
Horizon League
Milwaukee (23.9%)
Robert Morris (22.6%)
Cleveland State (13.7%)
Youngstown State (12.7%)
Purdue Fort Wayne (9.6%)
Oakland (6.9%)
Northern Kentucky (5.7%)
Wright State (4.0%)
IU Indianapolis (0.6%)
Inexperienced Bay (0.5%)
Detroit (0.2%)
Robert Morris received the common season title after profitable its final seven video games. The Colonials additionally beat Milwaukee each instances this season, however TRACR nonetheless barely favors the Panthers after they received 5 of their final six video games.
Extra From Opta Analyst
Patriot League
Bucknell (38.1%)
American (17.9%)
Navy (11.4%)
Colgate (11.2%)
Lafayette (5.6%)
Boston College (5.2%)
Lehigh (3.7%)
Loyola (MD) (3.1%)
Military (2.6%)
Holy Cross (1.4%)
Bucknell has received six in a row and 9 of its final 10, clinching a share of the common season title with American after the workforce began the season 4-10. Fairly the turnaround for John Griffin in simply his second 12 months with the Bison. The mannequin sees Bucknell as a transparent favourite following the workforce’s current scorching streak.
Solar Belt
Arkansas State (41.2%)
James Madison (20.0%)
Troy (16.7%)
South Alabama (11.7%)
App State (5.0%)
Marshall (2.5%)
Texas State (1.4%)
Georgia State (1.1%)
Louisiana (0.3%)
Georgia Southern (0.1%)
Previous Dominion (0.1%)
Southern Miss (<0.1%)
Coastal Carolina (<0.1%)
ULM (<0.1%)
4 groups clinched a share of the Solar Belt common season title – Arkansas State, South Alabama, Troy and James Madison. TRACR provides a major edge to the Crimson Wolves, who beat No. 16 Memphis on the street in December. The Solar Belt champion will doubtless earn a 13 or 14 seed from the committee.
Huge South
Excessive Level (41.2%)
Winthrop (19.5%)
Radford (13.0%)
UNC Asheville (7.5%)
Longwood (7.3%)
Presbyterian (7.1%)
Charleston Southern (3.1%)
Gardner-Webb (1.3%)
USC Upstate (0.4%)
It was a fantastic basketball season at Excessive Level, as the boys’s and girls’s groups each received common season convention titles. The Panthers have received 11 video games in a row, together with the final 4 by at the least 20 factors. It might be Excessive Level’s first NCAA Match look – they’re projected to be a 13 seed.
Northeast
Central Connecticut State (49.1%)
LIU (24.9%)
Fairleigh Dickinson (9.4%)
Saint Francis (6.0%)
Stonehill (4.5%)
Wagner (3.1%)
Le Moyne (2.4%)
Chicago State (0.9%)
Mercyhurst is ineligible for the NCAA Match and the NEC Match as a consequence of its current transition into Division I.
Central Connecticut State has not misplaced since Jan. 12, whereas LIU received its final six video games to complete with an above .500 document in common season play. Winner of this convention event will doubtless be a 15 or 16 seed.
Ohio Valley
Southeast Missouri State (36.7%)
SIU Edwardsville (28.7%)
Tennessee State (13.2%)
Little Rock (13.0%)
Tennessee Tech (2.9%)
UT Martin (2.0%)
Lindenwood (1.8%)
Morehead State (1.8%)
Southern Indiana is ineligible for the NCAA Match because it lately transitioned into Division I. After ending with a 5-15 document in convention play, the workforce will be a part of Japanese Illinois and Western Illinois because the three groups that didn’t qualify for the Ohio Valley Match.
Southeast Missouri State bounced again from a 9-22 document in 2023-24 to earn its first 20-win season since 1999-00, the primary time the college made the NCAA Match. If the Redhawks earn the convention’s bid, they are going to doubtless be a 16 seed.
Summit League
South Dakota State (23.1%)
St. Thomas (MN) (21.6%)
North Dakota State (20.5%)
Omaha (18.2%)
South Dakota (7.8%)
Denver (2.8%)
North Dakota (2.6%)
Kansas Metropolis (2.6%)
Oral Roberts (1.0%)
Regardless of ending with a 12-4 document in convention play, St. Thomas is ineligible for the NCAA Match because of the workforce’s current transition from Division III. If the Tommies do win the Summit League event, the automated bid would go to the highest-seeded eligible workforce, Omaha.
Whereas South Dakota State has the very best chance of profitable the convention event, per TRACR, top-seeded Omaha may nonetheless head to the dance with a robust exhibiting from St. Thomas. Or, the Mavericks may make it easy and win the event themselves.
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