We’re diving by every league and revealing who our supercomputer’s favorites are in our NCAA ladies’s basketball convention match predictions.
March is an thrilling time in ladies’s basketball each season. However this season could be even higher.
Convention tournaments are the ultimate observe of file when the choice committee decides the place to seed every staff. With extra parity in ladies’s hoops than in years previous, the seedings might go a good distance towards figuring out the eventual champion. So it stands to cause these convention tournaments are extra essential than ever.
That’s not even mentioning the groups that have to win their convention tournaments to be able to get into the NCAA match. Or the groups that want a robust efficiency to maneuver off the bubble. A lot is at stake in these single-elimination tournaments, making these video games a number of the greatest basketball you’ll see all 12 months.
We’ve simulated every convention match 1000’s of occasions utilizing TRACR (Staff Score Adjusted for Convention and Roster). It’s a internet effectivity metric that calculates a staff’s factors per possession on each side of the ball, adjusted for the power of the opponent.
A mean staff is at 0.0, whereas a very good staff may need a TRACR score of 20 or extra. For example, a staff with a TRACR score of 20 that averages 70 possessions per sport is projected to outscore a median staff by .29 factors per possession (20 divided by 70) in a sport. If the sport had 100 possessions, then that 20-some TRACR staff would outscore the typical staff by about 29 factors.
We’re going to dive by every convention, beginning with the primary league tourneys to get underway this week, and see who our mannequin’s favorites are. The groups inside every convention are ranked by the best likelihood of profitable the league match, with that likelihood in parentheses.
Observe: Convention match win chances for every staff are their projected possibilities coming into the convention match. Some conferences are nonetheless ending their common season. These projections will frequently replace after the top of every convention’s common season.
Horizon League
Inexperienced Bay (43.7%)
Purdue Fort Wayne (32.6%)
Cleveland State (19.1%)
Robert Morris (2.5%)
Northern Kentucky (1.2%)
IU Indianapolis (0.4%)
Detroit (0.3%)
Wright State (0.1%)
Oakland (0.1%)
Youngstown (0.1%)
Milwaukee (0.1%)
Inexperienced Bay went 19-1 in convention play, with its solely loss approaching the street in opposition to Purdue Fort Wayne, 67-66 again on Dec. 7. The 2 groups met on March 1, leading to a 68-63 time beyond regulation win for the Phoenix. If these two groups meet within the last, it needs to be fairly shut.
Solar Belt
James Madison (49.9%)
Troy (16.3%)
Arkansas State (14.6%)
Coastal Carolina (12.7%)
Previous Dominion (3.3%)
Louisiana (1.8%)
Marshall (0.5%)
Georgia Southern (0.4%)
ULM (0.3%)
Georgia State (0.2%)
App State (0.2%)
Texas State (0.1%)
Southern Miss (0.1%)
South Alabama (<0.1%)
Marshall denied James Madison’s bid to the NCAA Event final season, beating the Dukes in a championship sport thriller, 95-92 in time beyond regulation. James Madison responded by going 18-0 in convention play this season – the Dukes haven’t misplaced since Dec. 19.
ACC
Notre Dame (47.9%)
Duke (14.9%)
North Carolina State (14.1%)
Florida State (12.8%)
North Carolina (4.0%)
Georgia Tech (2.0%)
California (1.7%)
Louisville (1.5%)
Virginia Tech (0.6%)
Stanford (0.4%)
Boston Faculty (0.2%)
Virginia (0.2%)
Syracuse (<0.1%)
Clemson (<0.1%)
Pittsburgh (<0.1%)
In one of many video games of the 12 months, North Carolina State took down Notre Dame in double time beyond regulation at dwelling on Feb. 23, incomes the highest spot within the ACC match. Notre Dame went on to lose to Florida State at dwelling a number of days later.
Nonetheless, TRACR favors the Irish to win the ACC match due to the excellent play of Hannah Hidalgo, Olivia Miles and Sonia Citron. Every participant is ranked within the prime 10 in WAR. This can be the strongest Notre Dame group since Ruth Riley and Niele Ivey gained the title in 2001 (sure, even higher than Ogunbowale’s title run).
It will likely be a troublesome path to win the ACC match, although. Duke and North Carolina State are additionally trying to get a No. 2 seed by profitable the ACC match, whereas North Carolina might find yourself with a No. 3 seed if it wins.
Large 12
Baylor (26.3%)
TCU (25.2%)
West Virginia (19.2%)
Kansas State (14.4%)
Oklahoma State (7.0%)
Utah (5.6%)
Iowa State (1.8%)
Colorado (0.3%)
Arizona (0.2%)
Kansas (0.1%)
Cincinnati (0.1%)
BYU (<0.1%)
UCF (<0.1%)
Texas Tech (<0.1%)
Arizona State (<0.1%)
Houston (<0.1%)
Who is aware of what the highest 4 groups within the convention would possibly do? TCU beat Baylor to finish the common season however misplaced to Kansas State in February. West Virginia misplaced to Baylor and TCU within the common season however beat Kansas State. It regarded like Kansas State might win the common season title, then the Wildcats ended the season dropping three of its final 4. Consequently, Kansas State fell to the No. 5 seed within the match and Oklahoma State, which has wins over West Virginia, Kansas State, and TCU, turned the No. 3 seed. This will probably be wild!
However with all of that, an excessive darkish horse to win this match could be Iowa State. The Cyclones have gained six of their final seven, all by double digits. Audi Crooks – you would possibly keep in mind her from having a 40-point sport in final 12 months’s NCAA Event – is averaging 23.0 factors and seven.7 rebounds this season. Feed her the ball inside and Iowa State might make a deep run, however the Cyclones should win 4 video games to safe a convention match title, which TRACR doesn’t see as doubtless.
The Large 12 will doubtless have seven groups within the NCAA Event, and a deep run by Arizona might make it eight.
Large Ten
USC (44.6%)
UCLA (22.6%)
Ohio State (13.1%)
Michigan State (5.5%)
Maryland (5.5%)
Michigan (3.4%)
Iowa (1.8%)
Illinois (1.1%)
Oregon (1.0%)
Indiana (0.7%)
Washington (0.6%)
Nebraska (0.3%)
Minnesota (0.1%)
Wisconsin (<0.1%)
Rutgers (<0.1%)
USC took down UCLA on the street on March 1 to safe its first Large Ten common season title. JuJu Watkins was spectacular, ending with 30 factors and 5 assists. There’s a cause why she leads Division I in WAR this season.
A rematch might occur within the Large Ten title sport, and the winner is sort of sure to obtain a prime seed within the NCAA Event. However what number of Large Ten groups might get in? Maybe essentially the most essential sport on this match will come within the first spherical, as Minnesota and Washington are each on the bubble. The winner will doubtless make it and the loser could miss out on dancing.
The Large Ten might have as many as 13 groups within the NCAA Event – essentially the most in a single season in D-I ladies’s historical past is 9, set by the 2011 Large East and matched by the 2016 SEC.
Large South
Excessive Level (48.2%)
Longwood (23.8%)
Charleston Southern (7.5%)
Gardner-Webb (6.9%)
Radford (6.4%)
Winthrop (5.3%)
USC Upstate (1.2%)
UNC Asheville (0.6%)
Presbyterian (0.5%)
Excessive Level picked it up in direction of the top of the season, profitable 10 of its final 11 video games en path to the staff’s second straight common season title. The Panthers had been upset by Presbyterian within the semifinals final season and have misplaced to No. 2 Longwood and No. 3 Radford earlier this 12 months. They’ve made it to just one Division I NCAA Event (2021).
SEC
South Carolina (34.3%)
Texas (28.9%)
Oklahoma (10.0%)
LSU (9.5%)
Kentucky (5.7%)
Alabama (4.3%)
Tennessee (4.2%)
Ole Miss (2.3%)
Vanderbilt (1.0%)
Mississippi State (0.1%)
Auburn (0.1%)
Florida (<0.1%)
Georgia (<0.1%)
Arkansas (<0.1%)
Missouri (<0.1%)
Texas A&M (<0.1%)
South Carolina wanted a buzzer-beating 3 to beat Tennessee in final 12 months’s SEC match (it was Kamilla Cardoso’s solely 3-point try of the season), and the title sport over LSU was full of drama. These had been two of the Gamecocks’ hardest video games in an undefeated season. What does the SEC match have in retailer for us this time?
Including Texas into the SEC combine makes this a complete totally different ballgame. Since dropping to South Carolina on Jan. 12, the Longhorns have gained 13 in a row, together with six wins over ranked opponents and a win over each the Gamecocks and the Tigers. The Longhorns would possibly nonetheless get a prime seed within the NCAA Event even with an early loss within the SEC match.
And whereas LSU completed the common season with a 27-4 file, TRACR has the Tigers ranked decrease than the NET and different websites. At fifteenth, the Tigers are nonetheless a power to be reckoned with, however that places 5 SEC groups forward of them. LSU appears to bounce again within the match after dropping three of its final 5 within the common season.
Summit League
South Dakota State (68.5%)
Oral Roberts (17.7%)
North Dakota State (8.9%)
St. Thomas (MN) (2.6%)
North Dakota (1.2%)
Omaha (0.5%)
South Dakota (0.4%)
Kansas Metropolis (0.3%)
Denver (0.1%)
South Dakota State has not misplaced a convention sport since Jan. 8, 2022. The Jackrabbits’ 56-game profitable streak versus convention opponents is the longest lively streak in Division I, males’s or ladies’s. Brooklyn Meyer is capturing 64.0% from the sector this season, highest amongst all D-I ladies with not less than 300 makes an attempt.
America East
Albany (45.7%)
Vermont (36.6%)
Bryant (5.0%)
Maine (4.5%)
Binghamton (3.9%)
NJIT (1.9%)
New Hampshire (1.8%)
UMBC (0.8%)
Having the highest seed could also be crucial for Albany, as video games are performed on the higher-seed’s dwelling court docket within the America East match. Vermont beat Albany in its most up-to-date matchup on Feb. 8 however misplaced to the Nice Danes in Albany on Jan. 2. Whichever staff advances to the Large Dance will doubtless characterize the convention as a 15 or 16 seed.
Ohio Valley
Tennessee Tech (45.6%)
Lindenwood (20.3%)
Jap Illinois (13.1%)
Southern Indiana (10.6%)
Little Rock (5.0%)
UT Martin (3.4%)
Western Illinois (1.6%)
Tennessee State (0.5%)
Tennessee Tech has gained 15 in a row, outscoring opponents by 15.2 factors per sport. Its newest win got here in opposition to Lindenwood, a 77-59 blowout to safe the common season title. A match win for the Golden Eaglettes can be their second within the final three years.
Southern
UNCG (37.3%)
Chattanooga (23.4%)
East Tennessee State (16.9%)
Wofford (10.4%)
Samford (4.8%)
Western Carolina (4.2%)
Furman (2.6%)
Mercer (0.6%)
UNCG has made just one Division I NCAA Event look again in 1998 however as soon as completed because the runner-up within the 1982 Division III NCAA Event. The Spartans bounced again from a 62-39 blowout loss in opposition to Wofford to win 11 in a row to finish the common season. The winner of this match will doubtless be a 16 seed.
West Coast
Portland (35.6%)
Gonzaga (28.6%)
Washington State (15.0%)
Oregon State (12.1%)
San Francisco (5.8%)
Saint Mary’s (1.2%)
Pacific (0.9%)
Santa Clara (0.6%)
Loyola Marymount (0.2%)
San Diego (0.1%)
Pepperdine (<0.1%)
Portland has danced in back-to-back tournaments, however that is its first common season convention title since 1996-97. It shared the title with Gonzaga, who beat the Pilots in each conferences this season by a mixed six factors. It’s doubtless that the West Coast is a one-bid league this 12 months, which means a potential Portland-Gonzaga last could have main implications.
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