That may be the incorrect lesson, although, or a minimum of not the utterly proper one. It’s not that making contact is unhealthy, clearly. It’s nice if you are able to do it effectively. It’s simply that in case you suppose that’s all of the Blue Jays did, to easily not strike out after which journey a wave of success, then you definitely’re kind of lacking what truly occurred.
It’s true that Toronto had the bottom strikeout price. It’s additionally true that the three groups with the next-lowest strikeout charges – Kansas Metropolis, San Diego, and Miami – had been nobody’s thought of top-flight offenses. In 2024, the Blue Jays themselves nonetheless had one in all baseball’s lowest strikeout charges, however they had been additionally a last-place workforce that completed twenty second in runs scored.
If success was merely about making probably the most contact, then the Royals and Brewers could be within the World Sequence yearly (they’re not), and Luis Arraez could be the perfect hitter in baseball (he’s not). The important thing to what Toronto did was to keep up that low strikeout price whereas additionally including bat velocity and slug, to the purpose that that they had one of the crucial highly effective postseason slugging offenses on document. They scored extra of their runs by way of the homer in October than in the course of the common season.
It’s that, and it’s the opposite stuff, too – a few of it. The Jays barely stole bases (third-fewest), and had been below-average on the bases (tied for fifth-worst), in order that’s certainly not it, significantly while you noticed some high-profile baserunning gaffes within the World Sequence. They had been roughly common or barely under in most each significant pitching metric, each within the common season and the postseason, so whereas the arms had their moments – sure, we see you, Trey Yesavage – it wasn’t the mound or the basepaths pushing them to success.
A few of it merely can’t be repeated or deliberate for, like Ernie Clement hitting .411/.416/.562 in October. That’s not who he actually is, as a result of that’s not who anybody actually is. There’s at all times going to be somewhat “issues went your manner” in a run like this, and that’s one in all them.
Let’s take a look at three necessary issues the 2025 Blue Jays truly did – and who may be finest positioned to comply with them in ’26.
1) Begin with good contact and add bat velocity, not the alternative.
A decade or so in the past, we noticed an actual sea change in pitching technique. For generations, the perfect path to success was regarded as beginning with a live-armed pitcher and educating him a curveball or the way to throw strikes, since he already got here pre-equipped with velocity. That labored typically, however typically it didn’t, and finally it turned clear that you can educate velocity by higher coaching strategies, and so it turned extra interesting to discover a pitcher with some thought of what he was doing and assist him up that warmth.
(Satirically, the most effective outcomes of this technique was now-Blue Jay Shane Bieber, who was principally throwing within the excessive 80s in faculty earlier than including the speed that helped him turn out to be a star in Cleveland.)
Hitting is at all times reactive to pitching, and so years later, it’s beginning to really feel like that’s how hitting is about to go. As an alternative of attempting to get a massively overpowered slugger to acknowledge a curveball and make extra contact, as has lengthy been the (very troublesome) case, what in case you may get a participant with good contact expertise to do extra injury? That is precisely what occurred with the Blue Jays, as a result of each single one in all their common hitters who had been there over the previous two seasons added bat velocity in 2025, excluding Bo Bichette.
That is what the Purple Sox seem like doing, and so they’re certainly not alone. Keep in mind what the Blue Jays actually did:
There’s somewhat extra to it than this – they had been tied for the flattest swings on fastballs within the high third of the zone, for instance – however it’s a superb place to start out. Contact first, then bat velocity.
The Blue Jays had elite protection (the perfect in baseball, by Statcast metrics), and excellent catching (tied, defensively, for finest in baseball). They’d solely two meaningfully damaging defenders, and it’s price noting that neither one was enjoying the sphere commonly within the playoffs.
George Springer, who rated minus-8 in Fielding Run Worth, performed outfield early however was the workforce’s common DH by the second half and didn’t contact his glove as soon as in October. Bo Bichette, at -10 FRV the weakest certified shortstop, was changed by Andrés Giménez after Bichette’s Sept. 6 knee harm, and after lacking the primary two rounds of the playoffs, was restricted to 2B/DH responsibility within the World Sequence.
Relying on the way you select to outline such issues, we’d argue that Toronto had 5 plus-plus-to-elite defenders in Kirk, Clement, Giménez, Daulton Varsho and Myles Straw. And whereas Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rated as simply OK within the common season, he certainly confirmed the flexibility to up that a part of his recreation in October. (Plus: Addison Barger may need the sport’s strongest throwing arm.)
It won’t be simple to place collectively an ideal fielding workforce, however it’s not that tough to know the way to do it, both. Anybody can do that.
3) Have a generational celebrity on a heater and one in all historical past’s best rebound seasons
OK, we’ll admit this one’s somewhat more durable to drag off. The Blue Jays had Guerrero, a celebrity who had extra homers (eight) than strikeouts (seven) in October, and that’s not precisely one thing you possibly can simply inform your hitters to do. They had been additionally the beneficiaries of a virtually unprecedented comeback from the 35-year-old Springer, who had been simply common in 2023, effectively under in 2024, then was the third-best hitter within the Majors in 2025.
The Blue Jays don’t get the place they received with out these two. Stars are stars for a motive. You’re not going to make this journey with out them.
So which groups are doubtlessly set as much as comply with in these footsteps?
This isn’t simple, and it’s not speculated to be, as a result of there certainly wasn’t a lot motive to suppose a yr in the past that the Blue Jays we’d seen end final within the AL East in 2024 had been going to do what they did. It’s attainable that we simply noticed the 99th-percentile final result, the yr when most the whole lot went proper. (Not the whole lot, although; most of their free-agent additions from final winter didn’t actually work out.)
Setting apart groups which are merely coming from too far again, in contrast to that 88-loss Jays workforce, we expect these 5 hopefuls may match the profile finest.
So why – or why not? There are a whole lot of similarities right here, and it’s price noting that perhaps we’ve already seen the beginning of it, as a result of the 2025 Royals went from baseball’s fourth-weakest offense within the first half to Eleventh-best within the second half. It wasn’t about strikeouts, which principally held regular. It was about higher swing selections, because the Royals walked much more, chased rather a lot much less, and noticed their injury improve.
“Once you’re early swingers and make a whole lot of contact, like we did and have achieved for quite a lot of years, you could not give your self an opportunity to do [damage],” mentioned common supervisor JJ Picollo, including that “typically just a bit totally different message could unlock that factor that any specific hitter is on the lookout for to get into these counts and actually do some injury after they get in these counts.”
Like Kansas Metropolis, this winter has seen the arrival of two new hitting coaches. These aren’t the Jeter Marlins anymore, to make certain, and so they did enhance by 17 video games over 2024’s 100-loss disaster to get again to just about .500. If having the 18th-best bat velocity doesn’t stand out, it’s a minimum of higher than twenty fourth, as they had been in 2024. Solely three groups added extra bat velocity yr over yr, and so they already had the shortest swings and the flattest swings. They’re going to want some exterior lineup assist, significantly at first base. However there are some indicators of life right here.
So why – or why not? Along with the waves made by hiring supervisor Tony Vitello proper out of the faculty ranks, San Francisco made strikes to study precisely what Toronto was doing by hiring Hunter Mense off of the Blue Jays employees to turn out to be the workforce’s new hitting coach. Mense, who was coached by Vitello at Missouri 20 years in the past, couldn’t have a extra totally different background than outgoing hitting coach Pat Burrell, a traditional whiff-and-slug masher who hit 292 massive league homers.
It’s a minimum of somewhat bit regarding that no workforce misplaced extra bat velocity final yr than the Giants did, and presumably that’s a spotlight for the brand new employees. Chapman and Adames had been two of the six greatest decliners there, however we’d level to Jung Hoo Lee, who would have been the largest bat velocity decliner if he’d certified. His Main League profession as a hitter has been just-OK so far, and even a small rebound may very well be difference-making; Lee, in his profession, has a .289 common and .481 SLG when swinging at 70 mph or sooner, in comparison with .251 and .314 when it’s under that.
A workforce tied for second-slowest swings, forward of solely the White Sox, ended up with the fourth-weakest hard-hit price and sixth-lowest slugging proportion. To some extent, their pitcher-friendly dwelling park will at all times have one thing to say about that. Shifting the bat sooner to get the ball transferring sooner certainly wouldn’t harm, although. At Tennessee, Vitello oversaw a transition to a extra fashionable method, with way more velocity on each side of the ball. He’ll have the prospect to do this in San Francisco, too.
Sure, they received their division. No, outscoring solely the Pirates and Rockies just isn’t adequate. They had been truly outscored by six runs.
So why – or why not? To some extent, it seems like if it had been going to occur this manner, it might have occurred by now, as a result of Cleveland’s lineup has been constructed on this similar form for years. It really works when sufficient balls discover grass, and it doesn’t when it doesn’t.
Nonetheless, we all know that the Guardians are a minimum of attempting to extend bat velocity, as famous by rookie CJ Kayfus, who lately mentioned the workforce’s offseason bat velocity clinics, and your entire origin story behind 2024 No. 1 total decide Travis Bazzana was how he used science and expertise to enhance the velocity and path of his swing. You’re not likely seeing it in observe, but, because the Guardians have merely gone from thirtieth (2023) to twenty seventh (every of the final two seasons) among the many 30 groups. Perhaps you’ll if youthful gamers like these two and Chase DeLauter get extra time – although an exterior add, seemingly within the outfield, is an absolute necessity.
We’re obliged to place the present holder of final place within the American League East on this record, since that is the place Toronto was final yr, significantly because it’s universally agreed the Orioles have the expertise to do much more than that.
So why – or why not? OK, the contact-and-defense a part of this doesn’t actually play, however a whole lot of the lower-rated defenders like Gary Sánchez and Cedric Mullins received’t be again, and Heston Kjerstad hit so poorly that his spot in 2026 is hardly assured. A defensive enchancment from Jackson Holliday, who was one of many weakest second basemen in baseball, would assist. He solely turns 22 in December, so it’s simply attainable. Extra well being from outfielder Colton Cowser could be welcome, defensively, as commerce acquisition Taylor Ward will add energy, however not contact or protection.
This doesn’t actually appear to be a follow-the-Jays scenario, aside from this: It may need been a yr in the past. The 2024 Orioles had a barely better-than-average strikeout price, and a considerably uncommon mixture of quick, brief swings, which didn’t persist into 2025. They’re, for what it’s price, thought-about to be comparatively forward-thinking in how they practice their hitters. Will we glance again at 2025 as a bizarre disappointment – or the brand new regular? You’ll be surprised to know that they’re utterly turning over their hitting coaches.
That, perhaps, is the true Toronto parallel right here. The Blue Jays had made the playoffs in 2022 and ‘23, earlier than an unexpectedly disappointing 2024. The Orioles made the playoffs in 2023 and ‘24, earlier than an unexpectedly disappointing 2025. For a workforce with loads of younger lineup expertise, perhaps the one unhealthy yr isn’t sufficient to write down them off ceaselessly.
