With Spring Coaching underway and the daybreak of a brand new season on the horizon, it’s time to think about which gamers are in search of a rebound efficiency after an underwhelming marketing campaign the prior 12 months.
Every season presents a number of gamers who discover themselves on this class — those that have a confirmed observe document that creates an expectation of a sure degree of manufacturing, however for one purpose or one other didn’t attain that bar — and this 12 months is not any exception.
We requested a bunch of MLB.com writers to every choose one pitcher and one place participant they suppose can have a bounce-back season in 2025.
Bichette skilled a perplexing decline in 2024, slashing .225/.277/.322 (71 OPS+) with 4 homers over 336 plate appearances. Whereas the shortstop missed vital time as a result of accidents, his struggles predated these points: He had a .629 OPS in 66 video games earlier than making his first journey to the IL on June 18.
With free company looming, Bichette might use a robust rebound to solidify his worth. His relative youth and constant observe document earlier than 2024 supply causes to imagine he can get again on observe as he enters his age-27 marketing campaign. Bichette ranked fourth amongst qualifiers in batting common (.298) throughout 2021-23 and was one among 15 hitters — and the one shortstop — to document not less than 20 homers and an OPS+ of 120 or higher in all three of these seasons.
Coming off three straight top-10 Nationwide League MVP finishes that includes 30-plus doubles, 30-plus homers and an OPS+ of 130 or higher, Riley by no means received on observe in 2024. He had three homers and a .707 OPS via Might 12, at which level he tweaked his left indirect/facet however someway by no means went on the injured checklist regardless of not returning till Might 25 because the injury-ravaged Braves saved hoping he would get better.
The slugging third baseman’s manufacturing picked up from there — he hit 18 doubles and 16 homers with an .824 OPS in 73 video games thereafter — however Riley wound up lacking the ultimate month and a half (plus the postseason) after his proper hand was fractured on a hit-by-pitch on Aug. 18. Though the counting stats would have been higher had Riley performed greater than 110 video games, his OPS+ dropped to 115.
But amid all the problems, Riley recorded a 93.3 mph common exit velo that ranked No. 10 in MLB, whereas his .361 xwOBA positioned among the many 25 greatest. Coming into his age-28 season, Riley ought to return to his 2021-23 kind and will once more earn some MVP votes.
Two seasons after he was named NL MVP and flirted with a Triple Crown, Goldschmidt skilled the least productive season of his 14-year profession in 2024. He got here into the season with a .293/.388/.519 profession slash line after which put collectively a .245/.302/.414 line over 654 plate appearances with St. Louis. He was a below-league-average hitter (98 OPS+) for the primary time as a Main Leaguer.
However there have been indicators final 12 months that Goldschmidt can nonetheless be an affect participant. His barrel price (10.7%) and hard-hit price (49.6%) remained stellar, and people charges had been at 16.3% and 55.8%, respectively, over his last 30 video games of the 12 months. Every of these percentages ranked inside the highest 15 amongst hitters with not less than 100 plate appearances throughout that span, and Goldschmidt’s .590 xSLG was seventh greatest. There appears to be loads of life in his bat as he enters his age-37 season.
4. Luis Robert Jr., CF, White SoxKey Stat: Certainly one of seven gamers with 50+ HR and 40+ SB over final 2 seasons
Robert had a foul season for a foul group final 12 months. He was harm (restricted to 100 video games by a hip flexor pressure), the White Sox had been depressing, and his numbers suffered. However he’s 27 and just one 12 months faraway from a 38-homer, 20-steal season during which he was among the finest defensive heart fielders within the recreation (+13 Outs Above Common, tied for second-best amongst outfielders in 2023). All that expertise doesn’t disappear in a single 12 months.
Even together with his struggles in 2024, Robert nonetheless completed with 14 residence runs and 23 stolen bases, which brings him as much as 52 homers and 43 steals during the last two seasons. The one different gamers within the 50-40 group over that point are Shohei Ohtani, Francisco Lindor, José Ramírez, Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez and Kyle Tucker — all superstars. Robert is without doubt one of the few gamers who could be a true power-speed-defense triple risk.
5. Gleyber Torres, 2B, TigersKey Stat: .306/.375/.417 in 232 PA over last two months of standard season
A change of surroundings. New facial hair (although he simply missed having the ability to make that occur in his former membership’s uniform). And a contemporary begin. All of that, mixed with a robust end to the 2024 season might result in a bounce-back efficiency for Torres, who was an All-Star in every of his first two Main League seasons however has been unable to copy that degree of success since then.
Whereas he hasn’t approached the 38-homer, .872-OPS marketing campaign he had in 2019, Torres has definitely been a 20-plus homer hitter regardless of inconsistency on the plate. Final 12 months, nevertheless, he hit simply 15 homers with a .708 OPS in his last season with the Yankees. Most of his high quality of contact metrics had been down considerably — significantly his hard-hit price (35.4%, down virtually 5%), his anticipated batting common (.240, a 42-point decline) and his anticipated slugging proportion (.368, a 110-point drop). One other regarding stat was his strikeout price, which jumped from a career-best 14.6% in 2023 to twenty.5% final season.
However there’s nonetheless trigger for some optimism as he nears his debut with Detroit. Torres’ sweet-spot price of 38.2% was his highest in 5 seasons, he squared up the ball at an above-average clip (26.8%) and his chase price was wonderful (21.4%, 92nd percentile). Torres will take a look at the “change of surroundings” narrative, and the Tigers hope he’ll show the adage to be true. Consistency is the important thing for him, and he hopes he finds it within the Motor Metropolis.
1. Walker Buehler, RHP, Crimson SoxKey Stat: 43.7% whiff price over last three postseason outings
After lacking a part of 2022 and all of ’23 whereas recovering from his second Tommy John surgical procedure, Buehler returned to the mound final Might however regarded nothing just like the elite starter he was throughout his peak with the Dodgers from 2018-21 — a span during which he recorded a 2.82 ERA, a 3.16 FIP and a 27.7% strikeout price. Over 16 begins for Los Angeles in 2024, Buehler posted a 5.38 ERA, a 5.54 FIP and an 18.6% Ok-rate.
Nonetheless, Buehler began to indicate glimpses of his outdated self through the playoffs, flashing a extra explosive four-seam fastball and a sharper knuckle curve than he did through the common season. He closed out the postseason with 10 scoreless innings over his last three appearances, placing out 13 of the 39 batters he confronted in that point (33.3% Ok price) with a whiff price north of 43%. Though it was a small pattern dimension, Buehler’s robust end suggests he nonetheless possesses the stuff to be a top-notch starter. Having signed a one-year, $21.05 million take care of the Crimson Sox in free company, the 30-year-old will look to enhance his worth as a member of Boston’s rotation earlier than hitting the open market once more looking for a multiyear deal subsequent offseason.
Castillo’s second full season in Seattle introduced dips in lots of key statistics, together with WAR, innings, ERA, WHIP and strikeout price. What adopted was an offseason during which commerce rumors swirled across the hard-throwing righty because it appeared potential the Mariners might transfer one among their stalwart starters to bolster their bats.
Castillo’s stats nonetheless had been strong sufficient: 3.64 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.0 Ok/9 in 175 1/3 IP. Excluding the shortened 2020, it was the fifth time in six seasons during which he made 30-plus begins and threw not less than 169 innings — and within the 12 months Castillo fell shy of these marks, he notched 25 begins and 150 1/3 frames in ’22. No surprise he’s nicknamed “La Piedra” — “The Rock.”
At 32, Castillo may be nearing the top of his prime, and his fastball has misplaced a tick from its heyday. He nonetheless chucks the four-seamer at 95.6 mph on common, although, and it stays one among baseball’s greatest pitches by run worth, 12 months after 12 months. So long as that continues, anticipate Castillo to indicate that ’24 was extra of a pothole on a freeway and fewer of a “Hazard: Cliff forward” signal.
Verlander, a possible first-ballot Corridor of Famer, turned 42 years outdated on Feb. 20. At that age, neck and shoulder ache is only a truth of life, even in case you aren’t a Main League beginning pitcher. However final 12 months, neck and shoulder accidents contributed drastically to Verlander having the worst season of his 19-year profession. He recorded minus-0.3 bWAR and a 72 ERA+ (100 is league common). His 18.7% strikeout price was his lowest since 2014.
However Verlander is feeling match and motivated as he enters season No. 20, his first with the Giants. He is just one 12 months faraway from registering a 3.22 ERA over 162 1/3 innings between the Mets and Astros and rating as a prime 20 pitcher by run worth. Anticipating a pitcher of Verlander’s age to stay wholesome over a full season is a dangerous proposition, but when his physique does maintain up, Verlander will most likely contribute an ERA+ of 120 or higher — one thing he did yearly from 2016-23.
4. Kevin Gausman, RHP, Blue JaysKey Stat: 475 splitter Ks since 2021
Gausman’s 2024 numbers would look fairly good for lots of pitchers — he threw 181 innings with a 3.83 ERA and 162 strikeouts. However by his requirements, it was a giant drop-off. The Blue Jays ace had established himself as one among MLB’s prime strikeout artists over the earlier three seasons, pitching to a 3.10 ERA, averaging 223 strikeouts a 12 months with three top-10 Cy Younger finishes and an AL strikeout crown in 2023.
The excellent news is Gausman nonetheless has one of many nastiest pitches in all of baseball — his splitter, which has generated 475 strikeouts since his breakout 2021 season. That is the third-most by any pitcher on a single pitch sort over that point and greater than double the Ks of every other splitter. Now, there are some stuff questions Gausman should reply in 2025, even with the splitter, which had barely much less drop than normal final season. However he’s a sensible pitcher who ought to be capable to make the changes to rack up the strikeouts once more this 12 months.
5. Chris Bassitt, RHP, Blue JaysKey Stat: From April 9-June 29/Aug. 28-Sept. 23 — 19 GS, 114 IP, 2.76 ERA
There are a number of causes to surprise if Bassitt’s greatest days are behind him. He simply turned 36, and he’s coming off the worst full season of his profession — in 2024, he posted a 4.16 ERA over 31 begins for Toronto. He additionally noticed his floor ball price (40.1%) decline for the third consecutive 12 months. However don’t depend out a rebound efficiency in 2025, the stroll 12 months on his present contract.
Bassitt had an up-and-down marketing campaign final 12 months, however over a interval of 15 begins from April 9-June 29, his ERA was 2.76. He continued to supply comparatively mushy contact in ’24 — whereas the hard-hit price (37.1%) in opposition to him was up over the prior 12 months, it nonetheless positioned him within the sixty fifth percentile amongst certified pitchers, and the 87.8 mph common exit velocity in opposition to him ranked within the 76th percentile.
You even have to wonder if a 101.6 mph line drive off the bat of Aaron Decide on June 29, which struck Bassitt on the proper forearm, impacted the veteran right-hander’s efficiency thereafter. Over the next 9 begins, he struggled to a 6.80 ERA. However he turned issues round and completed the season stronger, with a 2.77 ERA over his last 5 outings.
