Third downs are clearly a vital ingredient of profitable offenses. The Pittsburgh Steelers have fared nicely total, rating twelfth within the NFL in changing third downs in all conditions. Points creep up at occasions although, like early in Week 14 recreation in opposition to the Cleveland Browns.
Pittsburgh’s offense began 0-for-5 on third down, together with 4 three and outs. Right this moment, I needed to take a look at that ingredient of play in 2024, and see how the Steelers have fared compared to the remainder of the NFL.
First, listed below are whole success charges on three and out drives this season (kneels, and aborted/penalty performs excluded):
Right here we see Pittsburgh’s offense ranks ninth league-wide on the season, with a 13.5 success charge on three and out drives. For context, the very best charge is the incredible third down offense within the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs at 17.1-percent. Extraordinarily robust problem on Pittsburgh’s schedule in Week 17.
The start of the Cleveland recreation was painful to observe via Steelers lenses, however the Browns have suffered that extra with rank dead-last on the season. A miniscule bump up at thirty first is Pittsburgh’s subsequent opponent in Philadelphia. So, issues have gone poorly total for them on three and out drives, whereas Pittsburgh’s offense has had success regardless of these drives ending abruptly.
This results in some optimism, seeing a possible that issues might enhance in Week 15 and past if they will capitalize on these third downs.
Let’s add some situational context by down:
1st Down 3-And-Out Success Charges = six yards, or >= 40-percent of the wanted yardage.
2nd Down 3-And-Out Success Charges = six yards, or >= 50-percent of the wanted yardage.
In undesirable three and out conditions, the success charges by down reveal essential context. Pittsburgh has a 31.1-percent first down success charge that ranks nicely at eleventh. Lands barely above the imply as a result of Atlanta Falcons “breaking” the chart with a whopping 52.2 first down success charge, and second-best Chiefs touchdown just below 40-percent. Wow.
The Steelers outcome was stunning to study, contemplating Pittsburgh ties for absolutely the worst 35.8 success charge on all first downs within the NFL. Shockingly, that hasn’t been the case on three and out drives.
Second down has been proper at common, with a 23.3-percent success charge that ranks sixteenth. So, the general challenge for the Steelers on three and out drives has been progressively worse outcomes on every rising down.
It’s additionally attention-grabbing to see the place remaining opponents are sturdy – KC (each downs), CIN (second down), and the Eagles substantial struggles in every.
I used to be additionally curious to take a look at recreation half outcomes, so here’s a chart of three and out success charges by half this season (second half consists of additional time):
The visible illustrates Week 14’s tough begin with 4 three and out drives was an outlier total. In 2024, first halves have been the higher mark, with a 16.5-percent success charge that ranks fifth. One other surprisingly sturdy lead to first halves on lower than ideally suited three and out drives, contemplating gradual begin struggles total for Pittsburgh, a difficulty for fairly a while.
Atlanta breaks the chart once more in first halves, at a powerful 33.3-percent success charge, in comparison with the second place Titans at 19.1 %, and the Browns are the Browns at dead-last (6.8).
Though the Steelers total offense tends to step up in second halves total, their three and out drives spiral uncontrolled compared. That rank drops all the way in which right down to twenty seventh after halftime, at an 8.7-percent success charge.
That’s the place the Chiefs step up, with a league-best 18.1 success charge, taking part in nicely total even when the drives finally fizzle out. Pittsburgh’s subsequent opponent, Philadelphia, lands on the opposite finish of the spectrum. Absolutely the-worst success charge (5-percent) on second half three and out drives, in comparison with the Steelers at twenty seventh. Might be an enormous issue within the Week 15 consequence.
Including to the Steelers ache is faltering on second down after halftime, with a lowly 5.9-percent success charge on three and out drives in second halves that ranks thirtieth, in comparison with twentieth on first downs. Cleansing this up must be highest on the radar of hopeful enhancements the remainder of 2024.
The subsequent visible offers context to the totality of three and out performs this yr. The bar is whole performs on three and out drives, orange sq. is first down successes, crimson sq. equals second down successes, and the dots are whole profitable performs on three and out drives:
Plenty of telling data. For starters, The Steelers have the Thirteenth-most three and out makes an attempt within the NFL at 178, in comparison with Denver’s league-leading 214, and the Falcons least at 94 (the one workforce below 100). The remaining groups on Pittsburgh’s schedule have the sting in avoiding three and outs extra: KC (129, T-Seventh), BAL (130, ninth), CIN (138, eleventh), and PHI (145, 14th).
The squares present amount of profitable performs. 14 first down successes are fifth-most, whereas ten second down performs ties for sixth. However, avoiding the scenario is the last word purpose, so seeing the excessive whole numbers re-emphasizes that challenge wants resolving.
The circles remind us of Pittsburgh’s sturdy ninth ranked whole success charge. So, a silver lining is that every one performs on three and out drives haven’t been catastrophic, however a crescendo of points on a down and half foundation.
There’s undoubtedly room for enchancment when it comes to amount and avoiding quick drives in comparison with the remainder of the NFL as nicely. This would definitely help Pittsburgh’s efforts in maintaining with the entire sturdy opposing offenses they’re set to face. Hopefully that’s the case the final 4 video games of 2024.
I hope you loved gaining the readability on the first points on three and out drives for Pittsburgh’s offense as a lot as I did, and hopefully we see enhancements in the important thing areas that may assist them lengthen much more drives to shut 2024.
Right here’s a desk of the info to wrap a bow on all of it:
