2024 Olympic Marathon Trials Preview: Meet the “Big Six” Contenders for Paris

After 4 years of ready, one of many best races on planet Earth is sort of right here: the US Olympic Marathon Trials.

Ask anybody who’s knowledgeable runner what query they at all times get and it’s, “Have you ever made the Olympics?”

When the reply is, “No,” you are feeling rather less legit. Will the likes of Sara Corridor or Keira D’Amato ever be capable of say sure? We’ll discover out on Saturday.

(Have you ever entered our prediction contest? It’s free. Achieve this now: 2024 LetsRun.com Marathon Trials Prediction Contest Sponsored by Relay)

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Associated LRC Articles:

The Six Ladies Most More likely to Make the Workforce

Let’s get all the way down to it. My process is to preview the ladies’s race, which begins at 10:20 a.m. ET on Saturday in Orlando (streaming stay on Peackock, NBC tape-delayed broadcast at midday ET). Whereas 21 US ladies have run below 2:29:30 and are eligible to be on the US Olympic crew with a top-3 end, there are six main contenders. If three of the next folks run their finest, they are going to be on the US Olympic crew.

Athlete
PB
Entry Time
Notes

Emily Sisson
2:18:29
2:18:29
AR holder. 2:22:09 & high American at ’23 Chicago regardless of facet sew.

Keira D’Amato
2:19:12
2:19:12
Former AR holder. Ran 13.1 AR (66:39) in 2023.

Betsy Saina
2:21:40
2:21:40
fifth in 2016 Olympics in 10,000 for Kenya. fifth ’23 Tokyo, 1st ’23 Sydney.

Sara Corridor
2:20:32
2:22:10
Didn’t run fall ’23 marathon and withdrew from ’24 Houston Half however has had largely uninterrupted buildup.

Molly Seidel
2:23:07
2:23:07
Olympic bronze medallist. Resurgent Eighth in 2:23:07 pb at ’23 Chicago.

Aliphine Tuliamuk
2:24:37
2:24:37
Defending champ. Hamstring harm brought about her to withdraw from Chicago.

How did I decide these ladies? I’d say they picked themselves. The record consists of the 5 quickest entrants within the area plus the defending champ, Aliphine Tuliamuk. In a day and age when the ladies’s marathon world document is 2:11:53, you want to have the ability to run the equal of not less than a low-2:20s marathon to make this crew. These are the one ladies who’ve proven they’ve the potential of working 2:22 or quicker (not that I feel third place can be wherever near that quick given the climate).

There are two different ladies entered within the race — ladies who’ve by no means run a marathon — who’ve the expertise to run 2:22 or quicker and I current them on the finish of this preview as my two wild playing cards.

Now let me rely down, from #6 to 1, how I feel the massive six will do.

#6 Aliphine Tuliamuk — 34 years previous, Hoka ONE ONE NAZ Elite, 2:24:37 pb (2023 Boston), 69:16 half

Coach: Jack Mullaney

Let me say it proper now: Tuliamuk isn’t making this crew. At a floor stage, it might appear bizarre that I’m completely discounting the defending champion who comes into the Trials after working a 2:24:37 pb in her final marathon in Boston.

However we caught up with Tuliamuk and her coach Jack Mullaney earlier this week and it’s clear she’s not 100% wholesome. She needed to pull out of the 2023 Chicago Marathon with a hamstring harm and that hamstring has been bothering her all through this buildup.

“I’m not 100% healed,” Tuliamuk informed LetsRun. “They are saying hamstrings take a extremely very long time and I’m undoubtedly realizing that now. I knew that I used to be going to must handle it, and so I’ve been managing it one of the best I can. I wouldn’t say that I’m utterly pain-free.

“…There was solely one exercise that I had to miss as a result of my hamstring wasn’t very glad with me. However the paces have not been what I’m used to. In truth, it may even be the slowest construct I’ve ever had.”

To make an Olympic crew whereas injured, you must be miles higher than everybody else and that description doesn’t apply to Tuliamuk. It’s a disgrace she’s harm as after getting back from maternity go away, she flashed her previous expertise stage a number of occasions. She was the highest American on the 2022 NYC Marathon, working 2:26:18 on a heat day and beating Emma Bates and gained the US Half Marathon Championships in Fort Price in February 2023 in 69:37.

#5 Sara Corridor — 40 years previous, Asics, 2:20:32 pb (2020 Marathon Mission), 67:15 half

Coach: Ryan Corridor

It could be superb if Corridor made her first Olympic crew in her eighth try…on the age of 40. That is Corridor’s sixth Olympic cycle and eighth Trials race as she’s tried to make the crew in each occasion from the 1500 by the marathon.

Corridor was fifth on the 2022 Worlds in Eugene (Kevin Morris photograph)

Sara Corridor on the US Olympic Trials2004 – eleventh in 5,0002008 – ninth in 15002012 – Eighth in steeplechase2016 – DNF in marathon, 14th in 5,0002020/1 – DNF marathon, Sixth in 10,000

Corridor’s profession has taken off in her late 30s since she moved as much as the marathon.

Heading into the 2020 Trials, she was a high contender after she ran 2:22:16 in Berlin within the fall of 2019 however she’s not an excellent hill runner and dropped out. She then received 2nd in London in October 2020 earlier than working her 2:20:32 pb in December. In 2022, she ran 2:22 twice as she was Eighth in Tokyo and fifth at Worlds and broke the American half marathon document.

Once we spoke to Corridor final week, she informed us she’s been all-in on these Trials like nothing else in her profession.

“I need to make this crew greater than ever earlier than,” Corridor stated. “I’ve by no means invested extra on this sport than I did the final yr and a half with this in thoughts. In my goals, it’s how the story ends.”

Corridor likes to race quite a bit however didn’t run a marathon final fall. She’s been all-in on this one race for 5 months and her coaching has been good though she did pull out of the Houston Half as a precaution because of hip tightness a number of weeks in the past.

So why don’t I feel she’ll make the crew?

Two causes.

Cause #1 – It’s a recognized truth she struggles in heat climate. I’ve at all times held one mantra about scorching climate long-distance working: “For some folks, scorching climate working is sort of like a completely completely different sport.” And sadly that applies to Corridor as she completely cratered in her first marathon in a scorching LA in 2015 (2:48:02) and dropped out of the 2016 Trials as properly.

And whereas by Florida or Texas requirements, it’s not going to be “scorching” on Saturday in Orlando, it’s going to be hotter than preferrred for a marathon. It appears to be like like it will likely be about 61 levels firstly for the ladies and 69 on the end — and sunny. When it’s 65 or over in a marathon, that’s heat and it’s going to influence you in case you don’t thrive within the warmth.

“However she received fifth at Worlds in 2022,” you say. Properly, the Eugene World Championship marathon was held early within the morning at 6:15 a.m. There was a purpose why Corridor was one of the vocal of all of the runners pushing for an earlier begin time in Orlando. She was one of many 84 runners who signed a petition asking that the beginning be moved as much as “ideally 6:00 a.m., however no later than 7:00 a.m.”

In Eugene, the climate was 55ish firstly and 65ish on the end. That ought to give Corridor followers a bit of little bit of hope however these additional 5-6 levels in temps, plus the solar, are going to make a giant distinction for Corridor. If the race began at 6 a.m. in Orlando like she desired, her odds of creating the crew can be A LOT greater as it will be within the 48-52 vary through the race.

Corridor, who grew up within the Bay Space in California and now lives in Flagstaff, has carried out every little thing attainable to prepare for the warmth by coaching for it. If she makes the crew, it’s an all-time nice working story.

Cause #2 – Even when the race was run at 6:00 a.m., I don’t assume Corridor at age 40 is sort of nearly as good as my high three runners. In excellent time-trial sort situations, Corridor’s pb a 2:20:32. I feel my high 3 picks are all able to breaking 2:20 on their finest days.

#4 Molly Seidel— 29 years previous, Puma, 2:23:07 pb (2023 Chicago), 68:29 half

Coach: Jon Inexperienced

4 years in the past, Molly Seidel, the previous HS and NCAA XC champion, made her marathon debut on the Trials and she or he made it rely. Seidel made the Olympics by ending second in 2:27:31 and adopted that up with a shock bronze medal in Tokyo.

Given her highschool, school, {and professional} accomplishments, Seidel is clearly one of many best abilities to ever put on a Workforce USA vest. Nevertheless, I don’t assume she’s going again to the Olympics.

I don’t doubt her expertise. I simply doubt her consistency. Since successful her Olympic medal, issues haven’t gone properly for Seidel as she’s battled a resurgent consuming dysfunction and accidents. She didn’t document a marathon end in 2022 and in November of that yr, she ran simply 76:22 for the half marathon. Final February, she solely improved modestly to 73:08 in Ft. Price.

At that time, it was truthful to surprise if one of the best model of Molly Seidel would ever resurface or if she would disappear like Jordan Hasay. In October in Chicago, Seidel followers obtained a giant confidence enhance as regardless of restricted coaching she ran a 2:23:07 pb. With almost 4 months to coach, a second straight Olympic crew appeared like an actual chance if issues went properly.

However I’ve zero purpose to imagine the final 4 months have gone properly for Seidel. There’s a rumor on the messageboard that she had surgical procedure simply 4 weeks in the past, and her Strava exercise matches up with that timeline as she has not logged any actions since January 4.

MB: Sizzling hearsay: Supply – Molly Seidel had surgical procedure 4 weeks in the past

I’d be a lot much less stunned by Seidel pulling out of the Trials between now and Saturday than by her making the crew. We’ve put calls in to Seidel’s coach Jon Inexperienced and agent Stephen Haas, and she or he is tentatively scheduled to look on the pre-race press convention in Orlando on Friday, so hopefully we’ll have an replace on her standing quickly.

In order that brings me to the three ladies who I feel will make the Olympics on Saturday.

#3 Keira D’Amato — 39 years previous, Nike, 2:19:12 pb (2022 Houston), 66:39 half

Coach: Scott Raczko

In case you are on the lookout for a cool story that will get a fairytale ending on Saturday, you must put your eggs within the Keira D’Amato basket. Within the mid-2000s at American College, D’Amato was one of many high cross nation runners within the nation. Her finest end on the NCAA XC meet got here in 2005 when she completed Sixth, beating the likes of future Olympians Amy Cragg (nee Hastings, thirteenth) and Molly Huddle (fifteenth), Jenny Simpson (nee Barringer, forty third), and Shannon Rowbury (fifty fifth).

D’Amato battled by a leg/hip harm to complete Seventeenth at Worlds (Kevin Morris photograph)

D’Amato ran on the observe post-collegiately for a number of years, however a foot harm in 2009 ended her aggressive profession. She was a “interest jogger,” received married, and had two children. In 2013, she ran/walked 3:49 in her first marathon. In March 2017, she ran 3:14 however the working bug had bitten and the remaining reads like a Disney film (you’ll be able to learn her full backstory right here). After working 2:47 in November 2017, she ran 2:40 in 2018, then 2:34 in 2019 and she or he was solely getting began.

After ending fifteenth on the 2020 US Olympic Marathon Trials, D’Amato ran 2:22:56 on the Marathon Mission in December 2020. In 2022, at age 37, she ran a then-American document of two:19:12 in Houston. That was one in all 4 marathons she ran that yr, together with an Eighth-place end at Worlds and a Sixth-place end in Berlin (2:21:48).

In 2023, she correctly lowered her marathon schedule. Her lone marathon this yr was a disappointing Seventeenth-place 2:31 efficiency at Worlds, throughout which she was hampered by an harm to her proper leg/hip. However within the buildup to that, D’Amato ran a 66:39 American document in a half in Australia in July. Since Worlds, she’s solely raced as soon as — a 69:12 half in Boston in November. That point isn’t overly spectacular but it surely wasn’t an excellent day to run quick (tremendous chilly and windy) and she or he was solely six seconds behind the world cross nation silver medallist Tsigie Gebreselama.

D’Amato politely declined to talk to the media previous to Friday’s pre-race press convention, however her Strava account is public and suggests her buildup has gone properly. And two days in the past, the 39-year-old posted this on Instagram.

If D’Amato is on high of her recreation on Saturday, I don’t see three different People beating her to the end line though her subpar displaying in Budapest (the place it was a lot hotter than it will likely be in Orlando) has me questioning how she’ll deal with the warmish situations.

#2 Betsy Saina — 35 years previous, Asics, 2:21:40 pb (2023 Tokyo), 67:49 half

Coach: Nicholas Koech

Saina, 35, is trying to make her first US Olympic crew on Saturday and there are quite a lot of causes to assume the previous Iowa State star will do it.

Saina has one of the best observe credentials of any runner within the area. The three-time NCAA champ (twice on the observe, as soon as in XC) ran 14:39.49 and 30:07.78 on the oval, with the latter time adequate to put her fifth within the historic 2016 Olympic 10,000 last, which she ran for her native Kenya. Oh, and people occasions have been pre-super spikes, too.

Saina’s switched allegiance to the US in April 2021 however she was pregnant on the time and as soon as she gave delivery in December 2021, I predicted it was solely a matter of time till she was a significant component on the US scene. In October 2022, Saina dipped her toes into post-pregnancy competitors with a 71:13 half in Tokyo and she or he’s been coaching just about 100% since then. By March 2023, she ran a 2:21:40 pb to put fifth in Tokyo. In Could, she beat Keira D’Amato by seven seconds to say the US 25k title after which in September, in heat situations (roughy 63 at begin, 73 at end), Saina captured the Sydney Marathon — a World Athletics Platinum Label race — in 2:26:47. 2:26:47 could not impress you at first look, however keep in mind it was heat. The lady she beat by six seconds in that race, Ethiopia’s Rahma Tusa, simply gained Houston 2.5 weeks in the past in 2:19:33.

And since Sydney, Saina’s coaching has gone very properly. Truthfully, my solely worry is she could have overdone it as she’s been working as much as 130 mpw whereas coaching with marathon star Joyciline Jepkosgei (2019 NYC/2021 London champ).

MB: Hand her a 2024 US Olympic spot now? Appears like Betsy Saina is READY to go. As much as 130 mpw

Saina is proficient sufficient to make the crew by simply taking part in it protected. However she’s tried to achieve a brand new stage for this race and we’ll discover out if she has on Saturday. Once we spoke to her earlier this week, she sounded extraordinarily assured. She stated there’s “been a extremely enormous enchancment” in her coaching for this race in comparison with Tokyo final yr and that “every little thing has been getting higher and higher.”

“To be sincere, it’s one of the finest buildups I’ve ever had as a result of, you know, when you get the privilege as an athlete to be in a position to practice by the program with out having any accidents, it’s at all times one of the finest issues,” stated Saina.

Given the truth that she has the very best previous pedigree of all my main contenders, on condition that she’s wholesome, I’ll find yourself selecting Saina FTW as I try to win the 2024 LetsRun.com Marathon Trials Prediction Contest Sponsored by Relay, however from a betting odds perspective, she shouldn’t be our #1 decide given she’s by no means damaged 2:21 in a marathon.

#1 Emily Sisson — 32 years previous. New Steadiness, 2:18:29 pb (2022 Chicago), 66:52 half

Coach: Ray Treacy

There’s little to not like about Emily Sisson’s possibilities on Saturday.

Of my six main contenders, the 32-year-old Sisson has one thing going for her that not one of the different ladies can declare — she’s the one girl in her prime that we all know is wholesome. All the different ladies are of their mid to late 30s (and even 40 within the case of Corridor) and/or are injured/unsure. Should you requested me to place one identify down I’m most assured will make the crew, it’s Sisson.

We’ve been hyping Sisson’s AR potential on these pages since 2015 when her school coach at Windfall, Ray Treacy, informed us she was made for the marathon. On the time, we wrote, “So there you’ve got it. When [Des] Linden and [Shalane] Flanagan and [Kara] Goucher are too previous to contend at a serious, America can put its hopes on Sisson.”

And she or he’s largely lived as much as that hype since transferring to the marathon in 2019, when she ran the second-fastest US debut ever (2:23:08 for Sixth in Lodon). The 2020 Trials have been a disappointment (Sisson, who doesn’t like hilly programs, dropped out) however she put that behind her and made her first Olympic crew on the observe the next summer season by dominating the ten,000 on the US Observe Trials. She gained that race by 12.7 seconds in 31:03.82 on a scorching day the place the temperatures reached 86 levels through the race. That bodes properly for her if the warmth is an element on Saturday.

When Sisson returned to the marathon in 2022, she shattered  Keira D’Amato’s 2:19:12 American document by working 2:18:29 to complete second in Chicago. She opened up 2023 by turning into the primary American to interrupt 67:00 within the half by working a then-AR of 66:52 in Houston. Sisson wasn’t nearly as good in Chicago final fall as she was in 2022 as she struggled with a facet sew over the ultimate eight miles and pale to 2:22:09. However that’s nonetheless a stable time and one I’m not sure anybody exterior of the highest six contenders can run.

Treacy stated Sisson drank a bit of bit an excessive amount of through the race in Chicago and that’s one thing they might want to handle fastidiously in Orlando. However issues don’t at all times go completely in a marathon and in a Trials race, generally you must get the job carried out even with out your “A recreation.” Treacy stated the truth that Sisson nonetheless held on to run 2:22 bodes properly ought to she discover herself in an analogous scenario sooner or later.

“I feel she received much more in all probability out of it than the one which went very well as a result of she discovered how to deal with some adversity in a race,” Treacy.

By way of coaching, we all know that issues have gone properly for Sisson. Based on Treacy, she not too long ago did a 30:52 10k time trial on the roads together with her husband Shane Quinn beside her on the bike, and once we spoke to Sisson earlier this week, she stated she was able to go.

“I really feel match and I really feel wholesome,” Sisson stated. “With a marathon, that’s not every little thing, however these are two massive elements of it. So I’m pleased with that. I’m pleased with how coaching went and yeah, I’m wholesome. That’s enormous to face on the beginning line of a marathon, wholesome. I couldn’t have requested for a greater construct in that respect.”

The Two Wild Playing cards

Later within the week, I’m going to present you 11 extra ladies whom I think about to be exterior contenders for the US Olympic Marathon Workforce. But when 4 or extra of my massive six are approach off their video games on Saturday, the 2 folks almost certainly to make the crew are Fiona O’Keeffe and Natosha Rogers of the Puma Elite Operating Workforce that’s primarily based in North Carolina and coached by Alistair and Amy Cragg.

Each Rogers and Cragg are making their marathon debuts in Orlando and our Jonathan Gault has already written a superb story on the probabilities of the principle males’s and ladies’s debutants: LRC Previewing the Olympic Marathon Trials Debutants: Paul Chelimo’s Coach Says They’re Focusing on Sub-2:08:10.

In that article, Alistair Cragg raved about O’Keeffe and stated the 25-year-old was born to run the marathon. His discuss O’Keeffe jogs my memory of how Ray Treacy talked about Sisson approach again in 2015. The distinction is O’Keeffe isn’t as proficient of a runner as Sisson. O’Keeffe, who competed collegiately for Stanford, by no means completed high 10 at NCAA cross and by no means gained an NCAA title on the observe — two issues Sisson did accomplish. That being stated, their observe pbs aren’t that far off (O’Keeffe has run 15:01 and 30:52 whereas Sisson has run 14:53/30:49).

However I think about O’Keeffe to be a legit contender. She, like myself, has a half marathon pb within the 67s (67:42) and if that’s your half marathon pb you might be definitely anticipating a low-2:20s within the marathon in good situations and to interrupt 2:20 if all goes completely.

As for Rogers, she’s run 14:52 and 30:48 and is a former NCAA champion on the observe. Additionally she’s robust as nails and fearless. I’ll always remember her beating Shalane Flanagan to complete 2nd within the 10,000 on the 2012 US Olympic Trials when Rogers was nonetheless in school (she didn’t get to go to the Olympics as she didn’t have the usual).

However Alistair Cragg stated Rogers struggled a bit of initially to adapt to marathon coaching. If she was made for the marathon, would she actually have waited till she was 32 to debut? I assume it’s attainable as Sara Corridor was one month shy of her thirty second birthday when she debuted.

I don’t assume O’Keeffe or Rogers will make the crew however I do assume they’ve the expertise to run 2:22 or higher in the event that they find yourself being good marathoners, so I’m not ruling it out.

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2024 LetsRun.com Marathon Trials Prediction Contest Sponsored by Relay.