2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES
WOMEN’S 4×100 Medley Relay — BY THE NUMBERS:
World Document: 3:50.40 – USA, R. Smith, L. King, Ok. Dahli, S. Manuel (2019)
World Junior Document: 3:58.38 – CAN, J. Hannah, F. Knelson, P. Oleksiak, T. Ruck (2017)
Olympic Document: 3:51.60 – AUS, Ok. McKeown, C. Hodges, E. McKeon, C. Campbell (2021)
2021 Olympic Champion: 3:51.60 – AUS, Ok. McKeown, C. Hodges, E. McKeon, C. Campbell
The finals of the ladies’s 4×100 Medley Relay in Tokyo noticed the Australian workforce of Kaylee McKeown, Chelsea Hodges, Emma McKeon, and Cate Campbell climb to the highest of the rostrum in a brand new Olympic Document time of three:51.60. The time, a brand new Oceanic report as properly, turned the third quickest of all time and was almost a second away from Australia’s earlier finest from 2009.
The outcomes have been a little bit of a shock, because the US had gained the final two Olympic titles within the occasion, in addition to each World Championships from 2011 to 2019, apart from the disastrous 4th place end in 2015 (the US’s Pan-Am workforce truly had a quicker relay than the World Championships workforce). Nonetheless, the Australians, whereas typically relegated to minor medals at Worlds, have claimed the Olympic crown earlier than profitable back-to-back in 2004 and 2008.
With the US having claimed victory at Worlds in 2022 and 2023 and the Australians claiming victory just a few months in the past in Doha, albeit with the US and plenty of others absent, it seems to be a two-team race. Nonetheless, the Olympics brings out the most effective in all groups, and there are just a few squads particularly poised to make a magical run to the finals and one, particularly, might rise from the previous and threaten for gold once more.
Podium 10 3/4
I’ve to confess that I acquired actually excited when relying on my fingers the variety of occasions america had one the medley relay as upon the primary depend, I had 9, however alas, with due diligence and double checking, I acquired to 10, so forgive me with altering the sub-heading greater than common.
That mentioned, america is by and much the powerhouse on this occasion traditionally and gained the primary 4 editions of the race from 1960 to 1972, till they bumped into the East Germans and their systematic doping. After boycotting the 1980 Moscow Video games, the US would go on to seize the subsequent 4 till the Australians broke via in 2004 to win two in a row.
Whereas this Olympic cycle is shorter than most, one shouldn’t learn an excessive amount of into previous historical past, as in swimming, something can change rapidly. For example, simply 12 months in the past in Fukuoka, the US’s medley relay line-up was a large number.
Fukuoka 2023, North America Day 4: What Does Crew USA Do For The Girls’s Medley Relay?
Girls’s Medley Relay Line-Up Predications: USA’s Line-Up Unclear with No Simple Resolution
After a messy prelims and up and down ends in the person 100s, the US’s projected roster was a serious explanation for concern. The SwimSwam Workers masking worlds, together with myself, have been everywhere with our ideas. The thought to discipline the workforce of Katharine Berkoff, Kate Douglass, Regan Smith, and Abbey Weitzeil acquired a response of “I don’t hate [it] both.” One other staffer advocated to make use of Berkoff, Lilly King, Smith, and Douglass whereas a 3rd staffer mentioned “Simply put the names on a dartboard and throw to determine it out idk.”
The teaching employees opted to maintain Regan Smith on the backstroke, use King regardless of ending 4th within the 100 and behind compatriot Lydia Jacoby for the breaststroke, and usher in Gretchen Walsh on the fly regardless of being almost a second slower than Torri Huske within the particular person 100, and to maintain Douglass on because the anchor.
12 months in the past, that appeared just a little on the market primarily based on their then kind. At the moment, three of them are world record-holders of their respective 100s and every gained their particular person occasion at US Trials. Perhaps the US teaching employees had the divining rods SwimSwam employees have been lacking (unlikely), or maybe they’d extra data (doubtless), however that quartet went on to win Fukuoka and now stand, dare we are saying, 3/4 of the best way to an Olympic gold medal and maybe a brand new World Document.
2023 Worlds Relay Splits
Trials Profitable Time (Flat Begin)
Private Finest (Flat Begin)
Regan Smith
57.68
57.13
57.13 WR
Lilly King
1:04.93
1:05.43
1:04.13 WR
Gretchen Walsh
57.06
55.31
55.18 WR
Kate Douglass
52.41
52.56
52.56
3:52.08
3:50.43
3:49.00
In wanting on the quartet’s occasions, we will see that Walsh has made huge enhancements, however she is just not alone, as Smith, too, dropped time. Douglass, who dropped the person 100 occasion not too long ago, remains to be doubtless the relay anchor right here except one thing drastic have been to occur within the 4×100 free relay or particular person 100, primarily based upon her win in Indianapolis. King’s time from worlds to her time in Indy at Trials could appear regarding at first, however that 1:04.93 is from a flying begin, and her 1:05.43 is quicker than something she swam in Fukuoka.
To not get too far forward of ourselves, however with simply their profitable occasions from the Olympic Trials, the foursome are sitting simply .03 off the World Document and if one have been to subract the differential from relay begins, the US workforce could possibly be hovering across the 3:49 low 3:48 excessive mark, coincidentally, the identical time if all their private bests have been to be added up.
Nonetheless, as a grain of salt or maybe a splash of chilly water, to succeed in such a mark, all 4 will have to be at their finest, keep away from any missteps/DQs, and hope that no different groups can pull a rabbit out of their cap and make some magic.
The Stroke of Requirement
photograph credit score Fabio Cetti
The squads that sandwiched the US’s silver in Tokyo and completed behind the US in 2019, 2022, and 2023 pose a menace to the US’s runaway win, however each lack the identical depth in a single stroke to maintain up with the Individuals: the breaststroke.
Each squads have top-end expertise within the different three strokes however lack severely within the breaststroke, the place their anticipated relay breaststrokers, Jenna Strauch and Sophie Angus, rank exterior of the highest 20 entrants within the particular person occasion and have by no means damaged 1:06 individually.
Australia
Canada
Backstroke
Kaylee McKeown – Former World Document Holder, #2 performer all time, 2021 Olympic Gold Medalist
Kylie Masse – Former World Document Holder, #3 performer all time, 2021 Olympic Silver Medalist
Butterfly
Emma McKeon – #7 performer all time, 2021 Olympic Bronze Medalist
Maggie MacNeil – #4 performer all time, 2021 Olympic Gold Medalist
Freestyle
Mollie O’Callaghan – #7 performer all time, 2023 World Champion
Penny Oleksiak – #13 performer all time, 2016 Olympic Gold Medalist
That mentioned, nonetheless, relays are very completely different entities. Within the particular person 100 in Tokyo, Australia’s Chelsea Hodges was ninth within the semifinals with a time of 1:06.60 however posted the second-fastest cut up within the relay (1:05.57) and helped Australia win the gold. In that very same relay, Canada relied on Sydney Pickrem, who had the slowest cut up (1:07.17) however such a lead after the primary leg that they fell solely to 3rd after the breaststroke and had the firepower on the again half to stay in third. So if all the opposite legs are firing at full energy each the Australians and Canadians might be able to decrease their losses.
AUS Trials
AUS PB
Stroke
CAN TRIALS
CAN PB
Ok. McKeown – 57.41
Ok. McKeown – 57.33
BK
Ok. Masse – 57.94
Ok. Masse – 57.70
J. Strauch – 1:06.90
J. Strauch – 1:06.16
BR
S. Angus – 1:06.96
S. Angus – 1:06.66
E. McKeon – 56.85
E. McKeon – 55.72
FL
M. MacNeil – 56.61
M. MacNeil – 55.59
MOC – 52.33
MOC – 52.08
FR
P. Oleksiak – 53.66
P. Oleksiak – 52.59
3:53.49
3:51.29
Cum. Time
3:55.17
3:52.54
courtesy of Fabio Cetti
Of the 2 nations, Australia appears more likely to stay on the rostrum. Kaylee McKeown has solely gotten quicker since then, and whereas Masse has not too long ago returned to kind, its not on the identical par. Emma McKeon appeared just a little off on the Australian trials however entered the Olympics because the sixth seed within the 100 fly, only one spot again of Maggie MacNeil. The large distinction is that whereas Cate Campbell, who anchored the Australians in 2021, did not make her fifth Olympic workforce, the Australians will doubtless be anchored by one of many quickest girls on the earth, Mollie O’Callaghan, whereas the Canadians might use Penny Oleksiak, who was the quickest performer at her trials, however did not swim beneath the person OQT. In 2023 and 2024, as Oleksiak, the co-gold medalist from 2016, recovered from accidents, the Canadians relied upon Summer season McIntosh and Taylor Ruck to anchor them.
Each nations’ cumulative occasions from their respective Olympic Trials should not far off from their entry occasions (their performances on the 2023 Worlds), and with relay begins, they doubtless might higher their outcomes from Fukuoka. Nonetheless, regardless of such positive aspects, even when their breaststrokers don’t put them in an excessive amount of of a gap, one nation has risen a lot previously 12 months that they might contend for the gold medal.
The Relay of the Phoenix
It’s not a lot that China’s relay probabilities have been in ashes, however after a gold medal on the 2015 Worlds, they’ve did not medal at any Worlds or Olympics since.
World Aquatics ChampionshipsFukuoka (JPN)14-30 JULY 2023
Nonetheless, an ideal confluence of occasions has come collectively, and China’s medal probabilities hav risen drastically. The aforementioned struggles of the groups above, particularly Canada’s breast and free woes, naturally would enhance each workforce’s probabilities but additionally Chinia’s drastic enchancment within the breast and free throw them into medal rivalry.
On the 2023 Worlds, China’s relay positioned 4th in 3:54.57. If one have been so as to add up their flat begins from their Nationals meet, they’ve a cumulative time of three:52.21. Most of that enchancment comes from Tang Qianting, who cut up 1:06.13 on the breast leg of the relay (1:07.15 within the particular person occasion twentieth). Nonetheless, since then, she has gone on to drop huge quantities of time, setting a brand new nationwide report of 1:05.27 in her gold medal-winning efficiency in Doha. Not content material with that she additional lowered her nationwide report to 1:04.39 this previous Might, to turn out to be the 4th quickest performer ever.
Tang is just not alone in rewriting the report books as Yang Junxuan, who was left off the medley relay in Fukuoka and had the slowest cut up (53.53) on China’s bronze medal-winning 4×100 free relay, posted a brand new PB and NR of 52.68 this previous Might. Her time is sort of a second quicker than what Cheng Yujie anchored the Chinese language Medley relay in (53.45) and with a relay begin, Yang could possibly be within the 52 low vary.
Nonetheless, one shouldn’t begin stringing up the bunting but, as, like each workforce on this checklist, China does have a weak leg. Whereas Canada and Australia have been hampered within the breaststroke and the US hasn’t had a low 52 or 51 anchor as of late, China will begin behind the sector as their doubtless backstroke swimmers. Wan Letian has a private better of 59.02. Whereas that point was only in the near past swum by the 18-year-old and it might last within the particular person occasion, beginning shut to 2 seconds behind the USA and Australia could possibly be too large of a niche to beat regardless of Tang’s huge enchancment.
That mentioned, nonetheless, Wan led off the relay final summer season in 59.49 so with the advance already this season, she has already made the relay quicker.
The Relay of Secrets and techniques
World Aquatics ChampionshipsFukuoka (JPN)14-30 JULY 2023
The Swedish girls have lengthy been led by Sarah Sjostrom, and this summer season seems to be no exception, as she is ready to compete in her fifth Olympic Video games. With relays needing 4 swimmers, it has been tough for smaller nations to string collectively sufficient swimmers to a. qualify and b. make the ultimate, but Sweden has been in a position to take action over the previous decade.
The 2015 Worlds was an odd yr, with the US failing to make the ultimate, however Sweden made essentially the most of that event, swimming to a silver medal and a then European report of three:55.24. Outdoors of Jennie Johansson, who has since retired, Sweden doubtless will carry again the remaining legs of that relay in an try to earn an Olympic medal; the query is in what order.
On the final three worldwide lengthy course meets that the Swedes have contested, they’ve used a distinct order of swimmers. Rotating round breaststroker Sophie Hansson, Michelle Coleman, and Louise Hansson have traded the backstroke duties, with Coleman swimming 59.75 in Tokyo and Hanssson posting a 59.93 simply this yr in Doha.
In wanting on the Entries Lists, L. Hansson is entered within the 100 again, and with Coleman entered because the eleventh seed within the 100 free, it seems as if these spots are set, leaving the butterfly leg as much as …. Sjostrom.
Regardless of dropping the person occasion and shedding the world report, Sjostrom can nonetheless compete with the most effective of the world within the occasion. She swam the fly leg in Doha, splitting 56.11 (the quickest within the discipline), and helped Sweden to a silver medal as they completed in 3:56.35, simply .37 behind Australia’s profitable time.
Tokyo Olympics – 2021
Fukuoka Worlds – 2023
Doha Worlds – 2024
M. Coleman – 59.75
M. Coleman – 1:01.08
L. Hansson – 59.93
S. Hansson – 1:05.67
S. Hansson – 1:06.34
S. Hansson – 1:06.18
L. Hansson – 56.12
L. Hansson – 56.82
S. Sjostrom – 56.11
S. Sjostrom – 52.73
S. Sjostrom – 52.08
M. Coleman – 54.13
fifth – 3:54.27
fifth – 3:56.32
2nd – 3:56.35
Nonetheless, with some iterations of the relay, Doha might have simply been a check to see if Sjostrom might/would tackle the fly leg of the relay, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see if the Swedish roster order be decided primarily based on how Hansson swims her 100s again and fly and the way Sjostrom and Coleman do within the 100 free.
The Leaky Relay(s)
(If anybody else can consider a sub-heading that matches the class I selected for myself and is best than this one, then please let me know within the feedback)
There are 4 nations doubtless competing for the final three spots within the last of this occasion, and every has various holes of their line-ups that would sink their probabilities.
Japan
Of the group, Japan positioned highest on the 2023 Worlds, ending in sixth. Mizuki Hirai swam a speedy 56.91 to win the 100 fly at Japan’s Trials and can be an enchancment upon the 57.67 fly leg from Ai Soma. Nonetheless, Japan lacks the backstroke essential to compete for the medals as Rio Shirai was 1:00.27 at Trials, failing to make the person qualifying time and can be a relay-only swimmer.
Netherlands
The Dutch positioned seventh in Fukuoka solely due to the heroics of Marrit Steenbergen, who closed the relay in 51.96, simply .01 slower than MOC. Tes Schouten was 1:06.91 on the relay however not too long ago gained silver in Doha in 1:05.82 and will assist the relay enhance, however with no definitive energy within the backstroke, each Kira Toussaint and Maaike de Waard are within the 59 excessive vary, the Dutch could also be at risk of falling too far behind.
France
Host nation France completed in eighth on the Fukuoka Worlds however has been making nice enhancements since then, and in entrance of a house crowd, appears to be poised to make their first-ever Olympic last within the occasion. Emma Terebo‘s new Nationwide Document within the 100 again and Beryl Gastaldello‘s enchancment within the 100 free have the French shut to 2 seconds quicker than their Fukuoka efficiency. Just like the nations above, France has a weak spot, as Charlotte Bonnett has been needing to fill in on the breaststroke, and regardless of setting a brand new nationwide report final yr, Bonnet was simply 1:07.48 at their trials.
. Nice Britain
The Brits completed ninth in Fukuoka and have been the final workforce beneath 3:59, not to mention 4:00 so it seems as in the event that they make up the final workforce of the 4 doubtless prospects. Angharad Evans‘s emergence as a dash breaststroke menace along with her 1:05.54 improves Crew GB’s probabilities of making the ultimate, however with Kathleen Dawson simply getting back from harm and Keanna MacInnes simply barely qualifying for the 100 fly, Crew GB may not have the firepower to get into the ultimate.
The Verdict
The US appears to be the front-runner, and having a squad made up of three World Document holders, they appear to be 3/4 of the best way there. Nonetheless, outcomes are dictated by performances on paper however within the pool, so the workforce should not get forward of themselves and nonetheless swim to the most effective of their skills. The battle for silver can be intense and really shut. China has the quicker cumulative time of their outcomes from Trials, however Australia has the quicker time if the PBs are summed. We’re giving the sting to Australia, for 2 causes. The primary is that McKeown, McKeon, and O’Callaghan all hit season finest at different factors within the season, in order that they weren’t fairly at their finest at trials (which may also be seen as a unfavourable) however means they’ve room to enhance, whereas three-quarters of the Chinese language relay hit PBs at their trials and might want to do higher than they ever have to enhance. The second purpose is a bit more subjective in nature, however the expertise of the Australians and MOC’s potential to persistently cut up beneath 52 provides the sting to the Aussies within the closing meters.
The battle for the final three spots is a toss-up, because it actually comes all the way down to of venture by the coaches. Whereas we’re previewing the finals of the occasion, we’re actually taking a look at who the workforce makes use of within the prelims and the way they carry out. Whereas we will anticipate the US and Australia to have the ability to use 4 new swimmers, these 4 nations might not have the ability to make such of venture.
For reference, the preliminary prelims roster for the US of Berkoff, Weber, Smith, and Huske has an combination trial time of three:52.56 (Huske on Fly and Walsh on free is .1 slower) and will simply themselves contend for the gold medal. Their extra doubtless prelims roster of Berkoff, Weber, Huske, and Manuel (or whoever is quickest within the 4×100 free) have a time of three:52.78.
Between Japan, France, the Netherlands, and Nice Britain, we have now the French workforce lacking out, but it surely simply could possibly be any of the others. Their enchancment as of late may be very noticeable, however Bonnet’s breaststroke time from their Trials is regarding. Whereas Gastaldello has improved, she doesn’t have the firepower to compete with the likes of Steenbergen and Anna Hopkin on the anchor leg.
SWIMSWAM’S PICKS
RANK
NATION
Nationwide Document
Entry Time
1
USA
3:50.40
3:52.08
2
Australia
3:51.60
3:53.37
3
China
3:52.19
3:54.57
4
Canada
3:52.60
3:54.12
5
Sweden
3:54.27
3:56.35
6
Netherlands
3:57.01
3:57.81
7
Japan
3:54.73
3:58.02
8
Nice Britain
3:54.01
3:58.95
Darkish Horse: Poland – Poland completed tenth within the prelims in 2023 with a nationwide report of 4:00.23 and improved their putting to eighth in 2024 (seventh in finals). Simply final month, nonetheless, they crushed the competitors on the European Championships, setting a brand new report of three:58.71, profitable by almost two full seconds. Dominka Sztandera, who’s entered within the 100 breast with a 1:06.42, made up a lot of the distinction as her cut up from Euros was almost a second quicker than her Fukuoka time.
