Hicks is barely 27 years outdated. He has exceptional stuff and has been dominant for stretches of his huge league profession, if not constantly. He had an argument because the second-best aid pitcher accessible on the free-agent market, behind five-time All-Star nearer Josh Hader. And the Giants, coming off consecutive disappointing seasons and having missed out on Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, clearly had been nonetheless searching for methods to bolster their roster.
However in a technique, Hicks’ deal got here as one thing of a shock. That’s as a result of the right-hander is predicted to come back to San Francisco as a starter, based on ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
This raises 5 attention-grabbing questions. Let’s attempt to reply them.
1) Why would the Giants give Hicks an opportunity to start out?For one factor, that may very well be what it took to land to a pitcher who has been fairly clear in preferring a beginning position. Hicks, the Cardinals’ third-round decide within the 2015 Draft out of a Texas highschool, labored virtually completely as a starter within the Minors from ’16-17. However in ’18, shifting to the bullpen allowed Hicks to take the quick monitor to the large leagues, making his debut with St. Louis as a 21-year-old on Opening Day and by no means trying again.
That didn’t change Hicks’ perception that he might achieve an MLB rotation, nonetheless. And in 2022, he received the Cardinals’ fifth-starter job out of camp. Whereas that resulted in solely a quick rotation stint, that wasn’t the top of it for Hicks. Final spring, MLB.com Playing cards beat reporter John Denton wrote that Hicks “is irked by the notion that he failed as a starter in 2022, and the concept he’ll without end be confined to the bullpen as an alternative of the beginning position he covets.”
“No, I don’t really feel like I bought my honest shot [starting],” Hicks advised Denton on the time, including that he nonetheless had beginning ambitions “down the highway.”
Then there may be the truth that the Giants’ rotation wasn’t overflowing with dependable choices, particularly early within the season. Alex Cobb and the newly acquired Robbie Ray will begin 2024 on the injured record, and veteran Anthony DeSclafani was despatched to Seattle within the Ray commerce. So much was going to be driving on unproven younger pitchers, akin to prospects Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn. Hicks provides San Francisco an alternative choice, one with intriguing potential, and if this doesn’t work out, the bullpen is all the time there as Plan B.
2) What went incorrect with Hicks’ earlier probability?It’s necessary to notice that Hicks could not have had the perfect alternative to succeed when he bought the beginning position in 2022. First, he missed the complete second half of the 2019 season after present process Tommy John surgical procedure on his proper elbow. Then he opted out of the COVID-shortened season in ’20 as he completed rehabbing his elbow and took his standing as a Sort 1 diabetic into consideration. Then he made simply 10 appearances in ’21 as he battled extra arm accidents. So heading into ’22, Hicks had logged fewer than 40 Main League innings over the earlier three seasons.
And even then, with 2022 Spring Coaching beginning late after the completion of a brand new Collective Bargaining Settlement between MLB and the MLB Gamers Affiliation, Hicks didn’t get a lot runway with which to arrange. He made simply three Grapefruit League appearances that spring, none as a starter and none lasting greater than 1 1/3 innings. (His first two regular-season appearances had been two-inning aid outings, because the Cardinals didn’t want a fifth starter straight away.)
In that sense, it shouldn’t come as an enormous shock that issues didn’t work out too effectively. Hicks made seven begins in April and Could earlier than touchdown on the injured record with a proper forearm subject, and he averaged about 3.5 innings per begin whereas posting a 5.84 ERA and a 5.54 FIP.
3) How did Hicks change as a starter?Not that a lot, really. Hicks remained principally a two-pitch pitcher, leaning closely on his sinker and slider. These two choices accounted for about 94 % of his arsenal throughout his seven-start stint, in contrast with about 99 % after coming off the IL and returning to the bullpen in July. Hicks did make his changeup a 3rd pitch as a starter, however solely confirmed it six % of the time
So far as velocity goes, Hicks’ sinker was about one mph slower as a starter. Nevertheless it nonetheless averaged slightly below 99 mph, placing him proper alongside Hunter Greene and Jacob deGrom for the quickest pitch kind amongst starters that season.
4) How would possibly issues be totally different this time?For one factor, Hicks is coming into 2024 after a full, wholesome season by which he threw 65 2/3 innings. And he’ll enter camp understanding that he has an opportunity to start out, permitting him to arrange and get stretched out for that position.
Hicks could be a distinct pitcher now, too. He began throwing extra four-seam fastballs in 2023, to associate with that bowling-ball sinker, providing a distinct look. He additionally joined the sweeper revolution, and as MLB.com’s Brent Maguire just lately explored in additional depth, that pitch was an enormous success.
That may not be the final change Hicks must make if he’s to have lasting success as an MLB starter. However a extra numerous arsenal — and a demonstrated potential to tweak his choices — is, effectively, a begin.
There’s additionally the truth that the Giants have confirmed lately that they may also help veteran pitchers enhance — albeit not essentially these in precisely the identical scenario. Nonetheless, maybe Hicks can observe the lead of the likes of Cobb, DeSclafani, Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón.
5) Has this kind of transition labored earlier than?It will not be widespread, nevertheless it has occurred. Look no additional than one other free-agent pitcher who signed this offseason. Seth Lugo isn’t an ideal comp for Hicks as a result of he made 26 begins over his first two MLB seasons, however he logged 227 aid appearances and solely 12 begins with the Mets from 2018-22 earlier than turning into a full-time starter with the Padres in ’23. Lugo gave San Diego almost 150 innings of above-average work (115 ERA+) and turned that right into a two-year deal (with a participant choice) to maintain beginning for the Royals.
Mike Axisa of CBSSports.com just lately identified a number of different related examples from the previous couple of seasons. Michael Lorenzen labored virtually completely out of the bullpen from 2016-21 earlier than turning into a stable starter for the Angels, Tigers and Phillies from ’22-23, even throwing a no-hitter final 12 months. In the identical span, the Rays did effectively with conversions for each Jeffrey Springs and Zack Littell, though the previous wound up needing Tommy John surgical procedure final April.
Whereas the necessity for competent starters appears to get larger yearly, this isn’t a brand new phenomenon. Going again a bit additional, the record of pitchers who loved prolonged runs of success as starters after initially coming to MLB in a aid position contains Derek Lowe, Chris Sale, Jeff Samardzija, Johan Santana, Adam Wainwright and C.J. Wilson
That’s to not say Hicks will definitely stick and excel within the Giants’ rotation — removed from it. However regardless of how shocking this information appeared initially, there are many causes to attempt it, and to suppose it’d work.
