8 prospect-related predictions for 2024

Because the Pipeline Podcast wraps up 2023, Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo preview the ’24 season with a variety of predictions. The duo breaks down eight classes, from Rookies of the 12 months in each leagues and the No. 1 total Draft decide to which group will end with the top-ranked farm system at season’s finish and extra.

Final yr’s version had some large hits, together with accurately predicting each Rookies of the 12 months (Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson), the No. 1 prospect on the finish of the yr (Jackson Holliday) and the most important riser amongst Prime 100 prospects (Jackson Merrill). Let’s examine how this yr’s guesses stack up.

“[Crow-Armstrong is] coming off of a 20/30 season within the Minors. We find out about his protection. The protection and velocity will hold him within the lineup each single day, and he’s going to contribute, and I believe he’s going to hit sufficient for the counting numbers that lots of people take note of [and that] will matter. I believe his mixture of expertise and alternative made him a strong, albeit, removed from slam-dunk decide for me.

“[Holliday] is so good that he’s going to play his approach — even when it isn’t on Opening Day — into the lineup shortly. I believe there’s a non-zero probability that he finally ends up making the large league staff. In the event that they suppose he can assist them win, then I may see it.”

“I simply suppose [Skenes is] on the identical path that Stephen Strasburg was on. I believe he’s going to come back out and destroy the Minors for six weeks and be up earlier than the tip of Could and be one of many higher pitchers in baseball proper off the bat. I believe his stuff’s that good. I believe he’s bought the command to go along with the stuff. Everyone knows he averaged 98 mph final yr all through the season at LSU. He can hit triple digits. The slider could also be extra devastating than the fastball. In one in all his Faculty World Sequence begins, his greatest pitch was his changeup; it was a well-above-average pitch in that begin. I believe he’s the entire bundle.

“After watching [Carter] in September and October, I’m not apprehensive about him with the ability to show himself and deal with the large second — he did that; I don’t suppose they make the playoffs with out him. I believe he offered an enormous spark, after which he performed nice within the postseason, not simply hitting however defensively.”

“There are different guys who could possibly be candidates, however we are able to’t make certain they don’t seem to be going to have graduated, so that they wouldn’t be eligible. For Pipeline Hitter of the 12 months, it doesn’t matter the place Walker Jenkins performs. They’ll determine that out, let him play heart subject. We would have liked to choose guys who had been youthful who we knew had been going to spend the yr within the Minor Leagues who we thought would put up actually large numbers. I’m nonetheless an enormous believer in Max Clark, and I don’t suppose he’s going to battle out the gates, however I simply suppose that Walker Jenkins has the possibility to place up some fairly large numbers immediately.”

“I really feel like, on the whole, followers perhaps underappreciate him a bit bit as a result of he was solely the fifth decide within the Draft final yr. He’d clearly be the primary decide in numerous drafts. … I imply, there’s not a lot this man can’t do. He hits for common, hits for energy, strong runner, good arm, you recognize we are able to quip, ‘Is he a middle fielder or proper fielder in the long term? OK, we’ll see.’ Make up is off the charts.”

“This isn’t primarily based on any monitor report as an expert, however Rhett Lowder was the quantity seven total decide within the Draft. The Reds took him out of Wake Forest. We’ve talked loads about Wake Forest and the expertise that is been churning out of there currently. I believe his mixture of stuff and command are actually, actually attention-grabbing to me, and I believe he’s going to have success proper out of the gate. I do not know the place they begin him. I may see him going straight to Double-A. Perhaps there’s an out of doors probability he results in the large leagues … As a result of his really feel and command had been so extremely talked about, I believe generally his stuff bought the brief finish of the stick. He’s bought good things. We’re speaking about above-average fastball and a plus changeup with plus management.”

“I’m going to go along with Robby Snelling … Final yr [he] had a 1.82 ERA and bought to Double-A by the tip of the yr. What’s to not like about this man?… It’s a top quality fastball that no person hits. It’s a top quality curveball. It’s one of many higher breaking balls within the Minor Leagues. The changeup is coming alongside wonderful. He throws a ton of strikes. He’s left-handed. [He has] large mound presence.”

“I took Wetherholt not simply because he’s now a buddy of the podcast, however [of] his skill to do a number of issues effectively and play up the center … Let’s say shortstop doesn’t work and there are sufficient scouts who suppose he’d in all probability find yourself again at second base. I do suppose that he’ll play up the center, and it offers him a bit extra worth. He’s going to hit; there’s sufficient juice within the bat. He can actually run. He does have a reasonably full toolbox … I simply suppose Wetherholt matches the sort of hitter [Cleveland likes] and he has affect. I don’t suppose individuals are apprehensive about lack of affect from him, so I believe that it makes pretty much as good of sense as anyone at this level.”

“Jonathan took the perfect pure hitter within the Draft. I took the perfect energy hitter within the Draft. … Kurtz is the perfect energy hitter within the Draft, however he has numerous hitting skill, too, he’s not simply an all-or-nothing slugger. I simply don’t suppose there’s any actual weak spot on the plate in him… Nick Kurtz would match what Cleveland wants a lot.”

“I’m going to go along with Ethan Salas. Clearly sort of took the prospect world by storm [after he] signed simply final January … He stored transferring and ended up in Double-A. Now this yr, I believe we are able to pump the brakes a bit bit. He doesn’t flip 18 till June. He’s to date forward of the curve, they may ship him wherever they need. Even when they need to ship him again to Excessive-A, the place he solely spent 9 video games earlier than transferring as much as San Antonio for the very finish of the yr and the postseason. … I believe his mixture of instruments, his skill to catch, his youth and his off-the-charts make-up — he’s simply going to maintain getting higher.”

“I believe there’s a risk the Padres push Salas additional than he must be. I did not actually see the necessity for him to be in Double-A in any respect final yr, it wasn’t like he tore up Excessive-A. I believe there is a risk he will get challenged a bit too shortly or pushed a bit too laborious. … If Salas goes out and hits .260 with 12 residence runs and he’s in Excessive-A, that’s really an awesome yr for a man who began the yr at age 17, however I don’t know that we’re going to rank that man because the primary prospect in baseball. That’s why I went with Jenkins over Salas.”

“I’m going to double down and I’m going to stay with the Cincinnati Reds. They’ve had numerous guys graduate and so they held regular at No. 5. Noelvi Marte, who needs to be talked about in conversations about Nationwide League Rookie of the 12 months, will graduate. A few of this may increasingly hinge on whether or not Rhett Lowder does graduate. I don’t need to put it on one man. … He’ll nonetheless be part of the farm system once we rank farm methods at near the tip of the yr. It’s a deep system; additionally, there are guys who’re going to bounce again.

“Getting into into my equation for preserving the Cincinnati Reds is the truth that, due to the Draft Lottery, they’re selecting No. 2 total. Including that high quality of expertise will assist offset a few of these graduations. They’ve bought a Aggressive Stability Spherical B decide, so that they’ve bought three picks within the Prime 75. They’ve bought a reasonably good bonus pool to work with. They can get aggressive with some highschool pitching, perhaps, with a few of these subsequent picks after selecting No. 2 total. The place they landed within the Draft positively entered into my calculations when selecting them.”

“I went with the Cubs as a result of I believe they’ve the potential for essentially the most Prime 100 prospects on the finish of the yr when guys have graduated. Pete Crow-Armstrong goes to graduate this yr. I believe Cade Horton goes to graduate. … Proper now, Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcántara, Ben Brown and Matt Shaw are all within the Prime 100 listing — all of them may qualify. … I believe Jackson Ferris goes to be a Prime 100 man by the tip of the yr. I believe James Triantos goes to be a Prime 100 man by the tip of the yr. They’ve bought Jefferson Rojas, tremendous younger worldwide signee who they sort of fast-forwarded to Single-A final yr and he held his personal.”

“I’m going with Aidan Miller, who’s at present No. 90 on the listing. The Phillies could have gotten one of many steals of the primary spherical of the 2023 Draft by getting Miller near the tip, No. 27 total. He had a damaged hamate, so he missed most of his senior yr. I believe he could have been a Prime 10 decide, actually a top-half-of-the-first-round decide. He can actually hit. He can play third base. He had a powerful debut after numerous day off. He made it to full-season ball after simply fully raking within the Florida Advanced League. It was a small pattern dimension — he performed a complete of 20 video games — however I believe that he’s going to hit the bottom working. He’s going to hit for common and a ton of energy. I believe he in all probability finally ends up taking part in — perhaps if he begins in Clearwater and ends at Jersey Shore — throughout two ranges of A-ball within the Phillies system.

“I believe he’s one in all these highschool bats who ought to’ve gone greater within the Draft and was a bit beneath the radar due to the damage. Persons are going to understand how good he’s with a full season of at-bats in professional ball in 2024.”

“The Cubs took him thirteenth total. He was thought-about among the best hitters within the school ranks of final yr’s Draft. He was among the best hitters within the Draft in professional ball. He hit .357, spent most of his time in Double-A, had an OPS over 1.000. Slightly of the chance with him is that he may hit his approach into the Cubs lineup by midseason, during which case he’ll be off the listing. They’re crowded within the center infield, clearly with Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson. I believe he may wind up at third base. He may push Nico over to 3rd and play second. That’s actually my solely concern with Matt Shaw — that he graduates. He soars up the listing and graduates.”

“He was ranked within the Prime 10 [of the international signing class] and signed for $2.5 million with the Mariners. One of many issues that’s attention-grabbing is, Ethan Salas apart, we are inclined to pause [on[ even a guy who is really highly ranked on an international list [because] they’re so younger once they signal. We don’t know what the transition goes to be like. We don’t know what the transition from the Dominican Summer time League — if they begin there — to america goes to be.

“What Montes has finished has actually raised my curiosity. He hit effectively, had an OPS over 1.000 within the Dominican Summer time League after signing. He got here stateside, and never solely did he hit rather well within the Arizona Advanced League, however he bought moved as much as full-season ball and hit higher, in lots of cases, there. The strikeout charge was a bit little bit of a priority out of the gate; he’s already improved that. He attracts walks, he’s large, he’s left-handed, there’s a ton of energy. He’s No. 12 on the Mariners’ listing on the finish of the season, and there’s some concern that he’d find yourself at first base, however he’s going to remain within the outfield. He hits the ball actually, actually laborious. The comp that has been made, unfairly, has been to Yordan Alvarez, nevertheless it’s that sort of profile. If he will get greater, perhaps he finally ends up at first base, however the bat goes to play. He’s going to hit his approach up this listing in 2024.”

“He was one of many prime worldwide prospects on Jesse Sanchez’s 2022 listing. He signed for $4 million. He’s had some minor accidents his first couple years, so he hasn’t performed a full season in Rookie ball. However he’s as tooled up as we thought he was going to be. He’s bought an opportunity to hit for energy, hit for common, solid-to-plus runner, cannon arm, can keep at shortstop. He was superb within the Florida Advanced League. He hit [.267], six homers in 27 video games earlier than he had an damage that gained’t have an effect on him long-term. I believe he’s going to be actually, actually good. He had a damaged thumb final yr. … He gained’t flip 20 till, just about, the season is finished.”