Former Large Ten commissioner Jim Delany as soon as famously predicted that the Large Ten’s universities would drop all the way down to Division III if the day ever got here that colleges paid their athletes.
Nicely, that day got here on Tuesday, and Ohio State and Michigan haven’t but joined up with Mount Union and Albion. However hey, the week is younger.
Stewart! I hope you’re doing nicely. Decide the 4 gamers who will go to New York Metropolis because the Heisman finalists in December. Please! — Jorge A.
That feels like a futile endeavor on condition that there are at all times a few guys nobody noticed coming. See Ashton Jeanty. Or Max Duggan. Or Kenny Pickett. Or Kyle Trask. (Elevate your hand when you have zero recollection Kyle Trask was a Heisman finalist in 2020.)
As an alternative, let’s phrase it because the 4 with the *finest likelihood* of ending as a Heisman finalist.
• Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith. Historical past says I shouldn’t put this a lot confidence in a receiver, however this isn’t your typical receiver. In truth, Smith, solely a sophomore, would be the second-most recognizable returning participant in school soccer. And he performs for a group that’s in a giant showcase TV sport each week. Plus, we’re not saying he has to win the Heisman, simply place. Identical to one other extremely touted Buckeyes receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr., did simply two years in the past.
• Texas quarterback Arch Manning. You guessed it – he’s essentially the most recognizable returning participant, even having barely performed. You may already inform that is going to be like Tim Tebow at Florida, the place Arch’s each little sneeze makes the SportsCenter High 10. And I do assume he shall be excellent. The rationale I don’t have him No. 1 is as a result of the bar for him is already so impossibly excessive that it’d take only one dud efficiency for everybody to activate him.
• Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik. I’ve Klubnik this excessive for a similar cause I had Clemson because the almost definitely repeat convention champion final week – he’s not going to have a lot competitors within the ACC. One thing can have gone terribly fallacious for Dabo Swinney if the Tigers aren’t enjoying in Charlotte in December with a CFP berth both already locked up or at stake. And in that case, Klubnik, final seen throwing for seven TDs towards SMU and Texas, shall be The Man there.
• Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer. I strongly suspect Mateer is about to take the nation by storm simply the best way he took the Palouse by storm final season. For one factor, he’s extraordinarily enjoyable to observe, along with his fast launch and uncanny capability to not get tackled. He’ll get loads of credit score if he helps the Sooners flip issues round. Additionally, he’s a little bit of a personality who’s going to present some memorable postgame interviews.
What number of occasions whereas listening to Joel Klatt’s interview with Tony Petitti did you wish to throw up? Between “We don’t wish to be handed something” (apart from 4 computerized bids), “12 groups (within the Playoff) will not be sufficient” and wanting 16 groups in order that if the Large Ten’s No. 3 or 4 seed loses a Large Ten play-in sport they’d have a “security internet?” Yuck. — Vinny from Kewaskum, Wis.
To begin with, I’m glad he lastly did an interview on the topic, even when it was with Large Ten state media. (At one level, Joel referred to Greg Sankey’s schedule-strength presentation to the media in Destin because the SEC’s “propaganda packet.”) But it surely largely confirmed what I’d lengthy suspected: Tony is a pro-sports exec who’s out of contact with precise school soccer followers.
Both that or he managed to search out the 5 of them who’re completely jacked to see an 8-4, sixth-place Iowa group play for an computerized CFP berth the primary weekend in December.
At one level, talking of this yr’s Week 1 Texas-Ohio State showdown, he says, “As nice as school soccer is — and it’s nice — there’s simply extra on the desk we are able to do. I believe followers wish to see extra of those (sturdy) non-conference video games early within the season.” He’s undoubtedly proper about that.
And but, his whole mannequin is predicated on the notion that non-conference video games won’t depend towards these computerized berths.
“Should you’re qualifying for the CFP off your convention file, after which play-in sport, the truth that you play a tricky SEC or ACC or Large 12 group and possibly get beat on the street, or regardless of the result’s — that may impression your seeding down the street, but it surely’s not going to impression your entry,” he stated.
Someplace in heaven, Keith Jackson is stabbing his eye with a fork. What number of a whole bunch of regular-season video games did that man name the place the nationwide championship was on the road for one or each groups? Now, it will be: “Welcome to the banks of the Olentangy, the place the stakes for No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Ohio State couldn’t be increased: Considered one of these groups possibly, probably will get a decrease seed 4 months from now.”
I understand the game’s margin for error has already elevated with a 12-team discipline, however as of now, if Ohio State loses in Week 1, it places the Buckeyes in a gap. Whereas in Petitti’s thoughts, Ohio State may lose to Texas 59-0 and it’ll have zero bearing on its season. As long as the Buckeyes end within the high six within the Large Ten – which this system has performed in all however one season this century – it is going to play for a CFP berth in early December.
Merely put, that’s not school soccer. It’s extra just like the NBA, the place you’ll be able to end the common season 39-43, however so long as you make the Play-In Event, you’ll be able to theoretically win the entire thing. Not even a diehard NBA fan would let you know the NBA common season is appointment tv.
Relating to the Home vs. NCAA settlement, isn’t the $20.5 million income share cap simply elevating the ground? If Ohio State, Texas or whomever desires a QB and it’s going to value $5 million, however they already spent the $20.5 million, don’t they merely return into the NIL area to get that cash? Let’s not child ourselves in regards to the NIL clearinghouse truly policing these top-end offers. — Scott S., Rhinelander, Wis.
Opendorse, the NIL company whose software program many faculties use to trace their athletes’ offers, revealed a reasonably jaw-dropping report this week that tasks whole NIL spending by colleges, collectives and business entities to achieve $2.75 billion in 2025-26. If each Energy 4 faculty spends the complete $20.5 million in rev-share (and lots of of them received’t), that might solely account for about half that quantity. Which suggests there’s one other $1 billion-plus within the ecosystem ready to search out its option to athletes.
And I’ve little question the faculties will discover a option to get it to them.
Early indications are that the faculties and collectives are taking the Deloitte factor critically (even when I’m not). A number of have both disbanded their collective (Ohio State, Georgia, Colorado) or redefined its function. But when the early messaging is any indication, colleges are about to turn out to be way more aggressive to find their athletes legit outdoors offers that move the Deloitte scent take a look at. Texas, Georgia and Ohio State introduced partnerships with Learfield to kind in-house NIL corporations that can dealer offers between gamers and types. Extra will comply with.
In the meantime, the Grove Collective at Ole Miss stays impartial of the college, however now has a advertising subsidiary to barter company partnerships on behalf of the athletes they signal. Which I take it to imply, they are going to go signal a $2 million sponsorship cope with Oxford Widget Firm, after which when Lane Kiffin wants $2 million for an edge rusher, that edge rusher magically turns into the brand new spokesperson for Oxford Widget Firm. Consider it as a extra harmless NIL model of Walter White’s automotive wash.
Word, loads of these bulletins have been giving me déjà vu to 2021-22, when colleges first tried to do their very own in-house NIL ventures however rapidly acquired rendered out of date by collectives. However again then the notion of paying school athletes was nonetheless seen as taboo, which doubtless prompted some trepidation by legit companies. 4 years later, athlete influencers are throughout social media, plugging all kinds of manufacturers. And never simply in soccer and basketball.
Plus, I’m positive each small-business proprietor on Ohio State’s season-ticket record shall be getting a name.
Stew, do you assume there’s any advantage to Tony Petitti’s argument that auto-bids based mostly on convention standings would incentivize higher non-conference scheduling? As a result of I don’t purchase it. — Jim S.
It may. But it surely may additionally incentivize Sark to sit down Arch Manning after the primary quarter of the Ohio State sport.
The place I’m from, video games that don’t depend towards the standings are typically known as “preseason.”
The place do you see Pitt this yr? It’s one of many solely groups with a number of returning All-Individuals (linebacker Kyle Louis and working again Desmond Reid). The Panthers began out 7-0 final yr earlier than accidents simply decimated them within the second half. How aggressive can they be within the ACC in the event that they get the Eli Holstein from the primary half of final yr? — Nick, Philadelphia
Boy did Pitt have a wierd season final yr. One minute, the Panthers are 7-0, garnering CFP sleeper buzz, and then-freshman Holstein seems to be like a breakout star. Then they get killed at SMU and by no means win one other sport. However accidents have been a giant a part of the Panthers’ demise. Holstein, Reid and several other offensive linemen all missed video games in November, when an offense that averaged 42.3 factors per sport in its first seven video games fell to 21.2 within the subsequent 5.
The factor to love about Pitt going into this season is its continuity, beginning with a wholesome Holstein behind heart. Reid quietly completed No. 5 nationally in all-purpose yards final season (154.9 per sport). And this figures to be one other stingy Pat Narduzzi protection led by a bevy of confirmed playmakers within the entrance seven, most notably Louis (101 tackles, 15.5 TFLs in 2024) and Rasheem Biles (82 tackles, 14.5 TFLs).
My greatest concern for Pitt, although, is Narduzzi himself. Which will sound unusual to say a couple of head coach now going into his eleventh season on the faculty. However outdoors of that one particular 11-win season in 2021, it’s been largely underwhelming. The Panthers have completed above .500 in ACC play simply twice prior to now six seasons, and 5-11 over the previous two.
The excellent news is he appears to lastly have an progressive OC who he trusts in 32-year-old Kade Bell, and DC Randy Bates is again for his eighth season. And he has loads of veteran leaders on this group. If I’m a Pitt fan I’d be disenchanted if the Panthers win fewer than eight video games.
Loved the article on Sac State’s aspirations to maneuver as much as FBS however the article, to me, actually by no means answered why neither the Pac-“12” or the Mountain West have been exhibiting a lot curiosity? Sacramento is a high 20 media market and the Hornets appear to make much more sense than Texas State to the Pac or NIU to the MWC. — Scott F.
Sac State has quite a bit to pitch, however “historical past” and “monitor file” will not be among the many promoting factors. Most colleges which have made the transfer up from FCS to FBS not too long ago have confirmed they will compete at a excessive degree throughout a number of coaches.
This system had by no means made the FCS playoffs previous to former coach Troy Taylor’s arrival in 2019. He had a pleasant run, reaching the sphere in every of his three seasons (the Hornets didn’t compete in 2020). After Taylor left for Stanford, successor Andy Thompson stored the streak alive for yet another season, earlier than falling again to 3-9 final yr. (He adopted Taylor to Stanford final offseason, earlier than Taylor was fired.) And whereas first-year coach Brennan Marion is making fairly the splash in recruiting, he has but to educate a sport.
These leagues may even see it as too dangerous to usher in a program that may are available and drag down the standard of the convention if the transfer proves to be untimely. Boise State, Fresno State, et al, left the Mountain West partially to get away from the annual also-rans that drag down their schedule energy. The brand new MWC isn’t precisely swimming in historical past and custom, and, the truth is, added UC-Davis, itself, although not in soccer. Perhaps that’s a extra practical path.
But additionally, there’s the query everybody in school sports activities is asking, and which I attempted and didn’t reply — the place is the cash coming from? An athletic division that made simply $100,000 in media income and reported a modest $836,000 in donations final yr all of a sudden has the money to make Marion ($750,000) and his workers ($2.7 million) the very best paid in FCS? Or to spend $4 million on this season’s soccer roster? A lot was fabricated from a bunch of enterprise leaders, dubbed the “Sac12,” elevating $50 million, however these are pledges – unfold out over 10 years – contingent on FBS membership.
For sure, Sac State president Dr. J Luke Wooden has some skeptics to win over. But when his imaginative and prescient begins taking maintain, I might not be stunned if the college will get that decision quickly sufficient. The Pac and MWC will undoubtedly wish to continue to grow.
At what level will faculties begin pushing to record athletic scholarships as part of NIL compensation? — Joe, Jacksonville
At no matter level they wish to begin lacking on recruits.
As soon as upon a time C-USA was the perfect non-BCS convention, however take a look at it now: Shedding groups to the Solar Belt, and nearly solely made up of current FCS groups. Why did it occur this fashion, and why is no one speaking in regards to the fall of this as soon as pretty mighty convention? — Dan M, Washington, D.C.
I cowl these items for a residing, and even I did a double-take once I acquired the e-mail Tuesday (July 1) that Delaware and Missouri State had formally joined Convention USA.
Is Stony Brook subsequent?
The C-USA heyday you’re referring to was greater than 20 years in the past, when Louisville was fielding top-10 groups below Bobby Petrino, Gary Patterson had it going at TCU and Southern Miss was nonetheless one of many higher non-BCS packages. (They by no means ought to have fired Jeff Bower.) A lot of what occurred from there was out of the league’s management. The ACC stored raiding the Large East, so the Large East/American stored raiding C-USA. Between 2005-12, it misplaced nearly each authentic member plus a number of of their replacements.
However one self-inflicted wound was the weird TV bundle it created within the mid-2010s that gave it an even bigger presence on the short-lived American Sports activities Community in addition to beIN Sports activities than on ESPN, which paid the faculties subsequent to nothing. Conversely, the up-and-coming Solar Belt went all in with ESPN, which, together with the additions of sturdy FCS packages corresponding to Appalachian State and James Madison, principally usurped C-USA in standing.
Living proof: Within the 2011-13 realignment wave, three Solar Belt colleges (Western Kentucky, Center Tennessee and FAU) left for C-USA. A decade later, three C-USA colleges (Marshall, Previous Dominion and Southern Miss) left for the Solar Belt.
So right here we’re, on this courageous new panorama, the place, as of July 1, the brand new C-USA lineup is: Liberty, Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State, UTEP (for yet another yr), Louisiana Tech, FIU, Sam Houston, Center Tennessee, New Mexico State, Kennesaw State, Delaware and Missouri State.
On the intense facet, the league could boast the perfect title in FBS this season: Western Kentucky quarterback Maverick McIvor. An actual-life Friday Evening Lights character.
Hey Stew: What if the ACC and the Large 12 made a commerce? ACC will get: Cincinnati, West Virginia and UCF. Large 12 will get: Stanford, Cal and SMU. Who says no? — Andy J., Columbus, Ohio
It makes manner an excessive amount of sense.
Stanford and Cal get to reunite with Arizona/Arizona State/Colorado/Utah, plus frequent nonconference foe BYU. SMU will get again pure rival TCU and fellow Southwest Convention expats Baylor, Texas Tech and Houston. In the meantime, Cincinnati and West Virginia was once within the Large East with Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville and Boston School. (The Mountaineers additionally overlapped with Virginia Tech.) And UCF will get extra bus rides to Tallahassee and Miami, fewer flights to Stillwater and Ames.
Now, the Stanford and Cal administrations have been fairly dismissive of Large 12 lecturers final time round, however that was earlier than they acquired caught enjoying 3,000 miles from residence for a 30 % paycheck. Presumably, occasions have modified. However would the Large 12 need them? On the one hand, they don’t precisely assist your soccer or males’s basketball merchandise. But it surely’s not like the faculties they’re dropping are essentially headliners, both. To not point out the Bay Space colleges would instantly turn out to be the perfect packages in lots of the Large 12’s Olympic sports activities.
You’ve offered me, Andy. Make it occur.
(Photograph of Jeremiah Smith: Gary A. Vasquez / Imagn Pictures)
