Tour de France Contenders

This 12 months’s preview feels too straightforward to write down with the rostrum finishers from final 12 months set to assemble once more in Paris, and fairly probably on the identical step once more. Is July is a fête accomplie?

It’s conceit to ascertain the hierarchy initially and hopefully it will get scattered to the wind by sport throughout the following three weeks.

Route recapA tough opening section with hilly days the place the sphere can cut up on the climbs and probably crosswinds, terrain the place a number of the punchier GC contenders can take time and wins. There’s a 33km flat time trial on Stage 5.

The primary huge summit end comes on Stage 12 to Hautacam adopted the following day by an 11km mountain time trial. Then come a sequence of mountain arrivals with Superbagnères, Mont Ventoux, the Col de la Loze and La Plagne. There are 10-6-4 second time bonuses on the end line. All of the stage profiles are on one web page at nrng.com/tour

The Contenders

Tadej Pogačar (UAE) is the prime choose. Final 12 months’s winner hasn’t stopped profitable, taking one-day classics and stage races alike. His performances within the spring classics present how he can revenue from the Tour’s opening week on terrain that his rivals would favor to keep away from. He returns with a robust staff eager to propel him to a number of stage wins and a fourth total win.

His kind is convincing, comfortable within the Critérium du Dauphiné win the place he might assault rivals with out having to get out of the saddle, then sit up as soon as he had taken the lead. All of it felt like a spoiler for July. His time trial that week was uncommon however from the surface appeared like an aberration, taking a water bottle for a 17km journey and coasting at occasions. Tour de Suisse winner João Almeida affords loyal assist and will journey to 3rd place, so might Adam Yates who did in 2023 though on the Dauphiné a number of have been lacking when the street went upwards.

Pogacar’s instincts and ambition could possibly be his downfall, a temptation to do an excessive amount of moderately than go for economic system, a full classics marketing campaign after which dominating the Dauphiné might imply fatigue however that is Pogačar and never one other rider.

Jonas Vingegaard was second final 12 months, spectacular after intensive crash accidents within the spring. This 12 months he’s virtually unhindered however got here up brief within the Dauphiné the place he was simply unable to comply with Pogačar within the mountains. He and neutrals hoping for a contest may have hoped he’s narrowed the hole however how you can get forward? He’ll discover terrain to go well with, there are 9 HC climbs and these hour lengthy efforts are his speciality.

Would Visma-LAB accept second? How a lot do they need to base their race on securing second place with the unstated hope that Pogačar cracks, versus what dangers are they prepared to take even when it means shedding second place? The staff are robust and might hope to launch an tactical coup or save themselves for a specific day – assume the Col du Granon in 2022 – however dislodging Pogačar within the crosswinds received’t be straightforward. Endurance may work, to bide their time. Matteo Jorgenson offers wider choices whereas Simon Yates is available in after amassing the Giro, he’s right here for assist however is aware of a factor or two about ambushes.

There’s solely been one time when riders on the rostrum in Paris met once more in the identical place the next 12 months (1979: Hinault-Zoetemelk-Agostinho). Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quickstep) was third final 12 months and many factors to a repeat. So much rides on his climbing performances within the mountains. His kind within the Dauphiné is a glass half-full/empty check, higher than final 12 months however disappointing. Few anticipate him to match Pogačar or Vingegaard on a climb so can he maintain away from the remaining and keep constant?

His staff can be aiming for dash wins and doesn’t include ensures of assist for the excessive mountains. He may shock on the constructive, he’s anticipated to take the time trial however his different weapon is the power to only journey manner, though that is hardest of all within the Tour de France when groups like UAE and Jumbo have their greatest riders in prime situation.

Primož Roglič (RedBull-Bora-hansgrohe) returns That was all the time the plan however he tried to win the Giro solely to crash out so kind is unknown. His win within the Tour of Catalunya confirmed what he can nonetheless do. As ever there’s threat, in addition to leaving the Giro he’s been DNF within the Tour thrice now however the stoic Slovenian has the expertise and little to lose.

Crew mate Florian Lipowitz booked his place within the Tour with a superb Dauphiné journey, third total and second in Paris-Good and fourth within the Basque Nation. He’s nonetheless a work-in-progress and liable to exuberant moments however all the higher for it. However the Dauphiné was his aim and the Tour might simply be a bonus in its wake. Much more underneath the radar is Aleksandr Vlasov who has been fifth right here however usually struggles to place a grand tour collectively and has had damage points since crashing out of the Tour final 12 months.

Carlos Rodriguez isn’t delivering outcomes Ineos hoped for after they re-bought him out of a transfer to Movistar. However he’s nonetheless 24 and a promising rider suited to grand excursions. The staff are backing him and virtually include their previous prepare formation to assist with Thyman Arensman, Geraint Thomas and Tobias Foss. He had a quiet Dauphiné however did so too earlier than taking a Tour stage and fifth place in 2023.

Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) has been on a multi-year trajectory with a programme of races together with final 12 months’s Vuelta as stepping stones to the Tour now. Solely the trail has zigged and zagged at occasions. At his greatest he’s punchy on climbs and time trials effectively for a lightweight rider. Sickness pressured him to skip the Dauphiné, then Suisse however he received new one-day race in Andorra. The others made a multitude of the end moderately than him hovering away however he’ll take the arrogance increase.

Embed from Getty Photos

Ben O’Connor had a superb 2024 season, however pretty much as good as fourth within the Giro and second within the Vuelta have been, this didn’t level to going higher on the Tour. He’s moved to Jayco and whereas “at residence” on an Aussie staff this additionally means stress as their marquee rider and he’s had a quieter season. He’s aggressive and this works each methods, see how he took the Vuelta lead thanks to arrogance, or it backfired when he tried to comply with Pogačar within the Giro and cracked.

Embed from Getty Photos

Felix Gall (Decatlon-Ag2r) is a good climber with the most effective Vo2 Max scores going, the problem for him is to get via the primary week unscathed as he’s not adept on the hustle and bustle of dash levels, certainly the hilly days is perhaps much more difficult. His staff say stage-hunting is the principle goal.

Michael Storer (Tudor) is in the same place, the proverbial huge engine however in danger within the opening days.

Enric Mas (Movistar)? He’s virtually a Vuelta specialist lapping France as prep. He’s rider however his Vuelta outcomes present he can journey regular to a excessive GC place however wins are uncommon. Ivan Romeo will probably be one to observe quietly too.

What function for Harald Tejada? Given the factors searching we’ll see if XDS-Astana are checking their spreadsheets and deciding between 230 factors for tenth place or 220 for a stage win. It’s not so binary and the ambitions of the staff will probably be attention-grabbing, do they maintain racing the identical manner or can they gamble extra, if just for July?

Fifth within the Dauphiné, Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X) has raised expectations and revived recollections of his Tour de l’Avenir win. A top-10 is feasible however with the reservation that the Dauphiné suited with some shorter climbs, the repeated hour lengthy efforts are a giant check.

On the rostrum within the Tour de Suisse Oscar Onley is already a one-week stage race contender. However he’s not planning to goal for the GC on the Tour a lot and insead has levels picked.

Within the final 5 occasions he’s reached Paris Guillaume Martin-Guyonnet (Groupama-FDJ) has fared no worse than thirteenth, however no higher than eighth. In some years he’s floor out a end result, in others he’s shed time in mishaps solely to get the house to assault within the seek for misplaced time. However he’s notable for sometimes beginning with the said intention of a top-10.