UFC 298 roundtable: Is this the end of the Alexander Volkanovski era?

Alexander Volkanovski has heard it earlier than.

They mentioned he couldn’t beat Max Holloway. He did it thrice.

They mentioned he can’t surpass the legacies of Holloway and Aldo, and whereas that could be true, he’s comfortably earned a spot subsequent to these names on the checklist of all-time nice featherweights.

They mentioned he couldn’t beat light-weight champion Islam Makhachev. He didn’t, however he got here darn shut the primary time they fought. (The much less mentioned concerning the rematch, the higher.)

Now, they’re saying he’s too outdated, and given the latest historical past of title combat opponents 170 kilos and underneath, you may’t blame critics for predicting Volkanovski’s downfall at UFC 298. Heck, Volkanovski himself is having amusing about it at this level. So is Ilia Topuria about to grow to be the subsequent dominant featherweight champion?

MMA Combating’s Shaun Al-Shatti, Alexander Okay. Lee, and Steven Marrocco ponder the likelihood that one of many UFC’s longest reigning titleholders might quickly be relinquishing his belt, plus extra urgent questions from this Saturday’s pay-per-view in Anaheim, Calif.

1. Does the Alexander Volkanovski period finish on Saturday?

Al-Shatti: My intestine tells me sure.

Look, all good issues finish badly, in any other case they wouldn’t finish in any respect. That axiom rings very true in fight sports activities. Alexander Volkanovski is likely one of the biggest abilities of this period of MMA. His reign of 1,500-plus days atop the featherweight division is already the fifth-longest consecutive title reign in UFC males’s historical past, behind solely 4 all-timers: Jose Aldo (1,848 days), Georges St-Pierre (2,064 days), Demetrious Johnson (2,142 days), and Anderson Silva (2,457 days). Any time you may wind up amongst that sort of firm, you’ve left an indelible mark on the sport.

However simply because the reaper ultimately got here for these legends (or at the very least three of them, St-Pierre was prescient sufficient to depart when he felt that reckoning nearing), historical past is now additionally working in opposition to Volkanovski. Everyone knows the stat at this level: At age 35, Volkanovski is the oldest champion underneath 170 kilos in UFC historical past. He’s already flagrantly defying Father Time in a manner no lighter-weight champion has earlier than him. Lower than 4 months in the past, he was brutally knocked out with a shinbone to the dome. Eight months earlier than that, he watched his 10-year successful streak meet its inevitable finish. All nice champions are invincible till the night time arrives once they abruptly aren’t, and every thing we’ve discovered over centuries of pugilistic historical past factors towards Volkanovski’s time quick approaching.

Is Ilia Topuria the man to do it? That’s a a lot more durable query.

The 27-year-old Spaniard is every thing you’d need for those who had been Bizarre Science-ing a changing-of-the-guard contender in a lab. Younger and hungry, highly effective and athletic, charismatic and dripping with confidence, Topuria seems to have the talent set and aura to be the UFC’s subsequent nice featherweight champion. Volkanovski has already achieved one thing no others have performed, so it shouldn’t shock if he manages to drag it off once more. I simply have a sneaking suspicion we’ll be listening to “and new” as soon as Saturday rolls round.

Marrocco: How unfair is it that Volkanovski dares to be nice by capturing the light-weight title from Islam Makhachev and loses his featherweight credibility when he twice fails? That is the man who beat all the very best featherweights of his period, the true kings of 145 kilos, and we’re already writing him off to the latest lion on the block. I really feel like that’s a operate of Topuria’s aura as a lot as his résumé, because the younger Spaniard seems to have the X-factor that stars are fabricated from along with a implausible set of preventing abilities.

Timing is every thing on this sport, as are the brief reminiscences of the preventing public, and each should not working in Volkanovski’s favor. As talked about, he’s 35 and he’s coming off a brutal knockout loss to a person a lot greater than him simply 4 months in the past. How a lot of his camp was merely recovering from a concussion? Did he get sufficient time to spar and work on his timing, or was coaching nearly getting in form? All affordable questions, and the possible solutions once more don’t look good for Volk.

Me personally? I can’t write the man off. The man is the oldest champion within the division’s historical past for a motive. His flagrant denials of Father Time are a part of his greatness, and I must see extra proof in his personal division to begin writing his obituary. At UFC 284, he was turning the tide in opposition to Makhachev within the later rounds and ran out of time. At UFC 294, he received caught — like everybody does — on a short-notice rematch.

What I’m making an attempt to say is, The Volkanovski Period just isn’t over at featherweight. Lower than one yr in the past, he dispatched one of many quickest, most artistic 145-pound fighters in latest historical past with Yair Rodriguez. He’s nonetheless received it, and if you would like a stat to again that up, check out the one Aaron Bronsteter pulled out. This isn’t Volk’s first rodeo.

Lee: It’s Topuria’s time, and that’s not an indictment of Volkanovski’s abilities within the slightest.

It’s undoubtedly untimely to begin piling dust on Volkanovski’s run whereas the physique remains to be heat, particularly when you think about that so far as competing at 145 kilos goes, he’s nonetheless by no means misplaced. There have been shut calls with Holloway and Brian Ortega, however Volkanovski’s potential to battle by means of adversity is likely one of the principal causes we maintain him in such excessive regard. Even when he’s not pitching an ideal sport, he nonetheless has sufficient tips in his bag to step off the mound along with his head held excessive.

I simply assume Topuria is that rattling good. Certain, youth and athleticism are on his facet, nevertheless it’s the superior approach and flexibility that has me choosing him to grow to be the subsequent champion come Saturday. This looks like two nice fighters passing one another at a pivotal level of their careers, some extent that indicators the rise of Topuria and the decline of Volkanovski. You possibly can’t rule out Volkanovski remaining a participant within the division even in defeat, however given the depth of 145, it’s straightforward to see how his finest days is perhaps behind him.

So yeah, we’re about to witness the top of an period, similar to we noticed with Holloway and similar to we noticed with Aldo. All good issues come to an finish, as they are saying, and Volkanovski’s championship reign was pretty much as good because it will get. Now it’s Topuria’s flip to hold the torch.

2. Which might-be contender will punch their ticket to a title shot?

Marrocco: I’m going to go lengthy on this one and say Paulo Costa. That wouldn’t be my decide if issues hadn’t gone so south for the Brazilian prior to now yr, however I feel there are few middleweights extra terrifying than Costa when he’s on. And after the catastrophe that was his UFC 294 reserving in opposition to Khamzat Chimaev, he must be as motivated as ever to show he’s nonetheless a reputable middleweight contender. He is aware of that so long as Dricus du Plessis is on the prime, he has an excellent shot at successful the title he didn’t seize in opposition to Israel Adesanya. So I count on he comes out in prime kind, thumps the getting old Whittaker, and units himself up as the subsequent challenger after du Plessis and Adesanya meet later this yr.

Al-Shatti: I do know fancy phrases like résumé and meritocracy are irrelevant in right now’s broader UFC matchmaking construction, however I merely don’t see how Merab Dvalishvili can proceed to be denied if he’s in a position to get previous Henry Cejudo and rip by means of his ninth straight win on Saturday. That’d pull him right into a tie with Aljamain Sterling (2018-2023) for the longest win streak within the historical past of the UFC bantamweight division, and Sterling was competing in freakin’ title fights for almost half of his personal streak.

The 2 greatest impediments to Dvalishvili’s path to the belt had been all the time, 1) his relationship with Sterling, which is now not relevant, and, 2) the truth that he tends to placed on considerably boring fights. That second little element nonetheless stands true, however at a sure level a résumé is inarguable, and we possible ought to’ve already gotten there with the Georgian takedown machine. There’s even a pre-built story that’d be straightforward for the UFC to promote between Dvalishvili and bantamweight champ Sean O’Malley (the jacket, Sterling’s revenge, and many others.).

Merely put, if Dvalishvili beats Cejudo and doesn’t combat for the belt in his subsequent bout, all bets are off for the way dumb and ridiculous we’re going to get within the O’Malley period at 135 kilos.

Lee: Certain, we might go along with the man who’s fought for the title earlier than or the man who *checks notes* hasn’t misplaced a combat in nearly six years, however the place’s the enjoyable in that? If we’re speaking probably the most compelling possibility, then it’s a contemporary face at welterweight that goes by the three-name moniker Ian Machado Garry.

Undefeated in six UFC appearances, the 26-year-old Garry has successfully been build up his abilities whereas additionally constructing his model. Relying who you ask, the previous could also be lagging significantly behind the latter, however within the huge leagues, what’s most necessary is that folks know who you might be, not who you’ve overwhelmed. And Garry already has a reputation that’s steadily being talked about by his friends, his followers, and a legion of detractors who wish to see somebody shut up the mouthy Irishman.

I don’t know who the welterweight champion will probably be when Garry will get his shot, however make no mistake, as soon as he takes out Geoff Neal and inevitably requires mentioned shot, ticket patrons will line as much as see him be humbled by Leon Edwards or Belal Muhammad or Shavkat Rakhmonov or whoever holds the title and is on the lookout for a challenger that can greater than carry their share of the promotional load.

Hate Garry all you need, however when he’s making the stroll to the octagon for a championship bout with no single top-five win to his identify, don’t say I didn’t warn you.

3. What’s the sleeper storyline of UFC 298?

Lee: We’ve already mentioned the potential finish of the road for Alexander Volkanovski, however how about fellow two-division risk Henry Cejudo?

Cejudo had a fabulous first run with the UFC, including bantamweight and flyweight belts to a trophy case that already included an Olympic gold medal in wrestling. He retired in 2020 however got here again final yr to problem then-135-pound-champion Aljamain Sterling at UFC 288. Although Cejudo went on to lose a slim cut up resolution, he seemed like he’d hardly missed a beat following a three-year layoff from competitors.

That mentioned, a loss is a loss, and if Cejudo can’t get previous Dvalishvili, then he can in all probability rule out any probability of preventing for a UFC title once more. Harsh because it sounds, all of his previous accolades received’t imply a lot to the matchmakers if he falls to 0-2 in opposition to present contenders.

Cejudo has achieved greater than most fight sports activities athletes might ever dream of and he has nothing left to show, so let’s hope that he’s keen to bow out gracefully if the writing on the wall turns into much more pronounced.

Marrocco: Who will get requested to maneuver up in weight by the California State Athletic Fee? One of many fascinating issues about UFC occasions in California is the extent of transparency across the regulatory course of, and that features its weight-cutting guidelines. Fighters who acquire greater than 10 p.c of their physique weight between weigh-ins and combat day may be requested to maneuver up, and a 15-percent acquire may end up in a combat being cancelled.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Costa, an notorious weight-misser, posted some huge numbers, prompting the fee to order up a physician’s be aware for his future fights. Then there’s Mackenzie Dern, who struggled early in her octagon profession to make weight. Justin Tafa has missed weight, extremely, as a heavyweight. Document-breaking underdog Val Woodburn minimize a ton of weight for his debut in opposition to Bo Nickal.

Who will run afoul of CSAC and doubtlessly be compelled to rethink their weight division? It’s all the time an X-factor preventing in The Golden State.

Al-Shatti: Who the hell is Mackenzie Dern?

I genuinely do not know at this level. The one-time jiu-jitsu phenom is just 30 years outdated but in some way feels as if she’s already on her fourth life within the UFC. In a span of a half-decade, Dern has vacillated between being the Rousey-level blue-chipper who was going to be the subsequent girls’s MMA famous person, the flawed prospect who refused to get out of her personal manner, the savvy vet who lastly appeared to place all of it collectively, and now the one-trick pony who’s been written off as a failed experiment regardless of successful eight of her 12 UFC bouts and nonetheless possessing a monstrous talent in her toolbox that far outclasses anybody else at 115 kilos.

It’s maddening. I used to be an early driver of the Dern bandwagon and stubbornly held onto my inventory by means of all the varied weight misses and failed photographs at competition, and that persistence appeared to lastly repay this previous Might when Dern smacked up Angela Hill with stunning effectivity and seemingly turned the very nook we’ve waited for her flip this complete time … just for her to instantly revert again to her outdated methods in November and get effortlessly walloped by Jessica Andrade. Now we’re seemingly again at sq. one.

If Dern is ever going to evolve previous this “effectively, if she will work out a takedown or two, then look out” part of her profession, it wants to begin ASAP. I’m nonetheless diamond-handing all of the inventory I’ve purchased up, however I’ve already warned my accountant to smash the panic button if her prelim headliner in opposition to Amanda Lemos begins wanting like a repeat of the Andrade bout.