For followers of groups who begin this season ranked within the AP preseason High 25, listed below are 4 phrases that ought to scare the heck out of you: No. 10 Florida State.
To not decide on the Seminoles — too late — however going from 13-1 in 2023 to 2-10 final yr was an unprecedented and epic year-over-year collapse.
Florida State is essentially the most excessive cautionary story of overreliance on the switch portal and, extra typically, how a season of excessive hopes can go horribly incorrect. The Noles have been school soccer’s most disappointing workforce final yr, however they definitely weren’t alone.
For the reason that ballot expanded to a High 25 in 1989, a median of 9.5 groups ranked within the preseason have completed unranked every year. These numbers are trending up, although, as school soccer turns into extra unpredictable.
In 3 of the final 4 years, the preseason-final ballot turnover is over 50% and the pattern since 1989 (the High 25 period) is steadily rising. (corrected hyperlink)https://t.co/IRb5nQAZc5 https://t.co/5HmFh5DvxD pic.twitter.com/YjYTEl6bWz
— School Ballot Archive (@CollPollArchive) August 8, 2025
In 2024, 13 groups went from preseason ranked to unranked, together with Michigan, Utah, LSU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The 2023 ballot was one of the crucial “correct” with solely eight preseason ranked groups ending unranked. However in 2022 that quantity was a document excessive 15.
A median of 1.7 preseason top-10 groups have completed unranked, together with No. 9 Michigan and the aforementioned Seminoles final yr.
On the flip facet, a bit greater than half the preseason top-10 groups (5.6) on common have completed within the high 10, together with six in 4 of the previous 5 seasons. And about two groups per season have gone from unranked within the preseason to top-10 within the last ballot. Final yr, there have been three: No. 7 Arizona State, No. 8 Boise State and No. 10 Indiana.
As you would possibly anticipate, the groups on the backside of the rankings are actually tenuous. In each 2022 and ’24, each workforce ranked from No. 20 to No. 25 within the preseason completed unranked.
So, possibly mood your expectations.
Here’s what might result in a disappointing season for every ranked workforce.
No. 1 Texas
The Longhorns have to switch 4 offensive linemen presently in NFL camps, together with three NFL Draft picks. There may be loads of confidence in offensive coordinator and line coach Kyle Flood’s means to recruit and develop, however rising pains at that place might undermine Arch Manning’s first season because the beginning quarterback.
No. 2 Penn State
What if it wasn’t the receivers holding Drew Allar again however vice versa? Allar has left so much to be desired towards the very best competitors. Head coach James Franklin flipped the receiver room via the switch portal to present his quarterback extra weapons, however with out additional enchancment from Allar, it won’t matter.
No. 3 Ohio State
The Buckeyes are changing 14 NFL Draft picks (seven within the first two rounds). To additional complicate the transition, Ryan Day additionally has two new coordinators. Brian Hartline was promoted to name performs for the primary time, and former NFL coach Matt Patricia was introduced in to run the protection. The NFL-to-college-defensive-coordinator monitor has been understanding pretty effectively for faculties, however the mixture of latest quarterback and new offensive coordinator has excessive glitch potential.
No. 4 Clemson
The Tigers have glorious defensive gamers (edge T.J. Parker, sort out Peter Woods and cornerback Avieon Terrell, to call a number of) however didn’t play good protection in 2024. Head coach Dabo Swinney employed Tom Allen as defensive coordinator to scrub up the sloppiness, however that may very well be so much to ask for a workforce that ranked 99th within the nation in yards allowed per rush (4.71).
No. 5 Georgia
The Bulldogs have been unusually odd — at greatest — final yr in two areas the place they’re normally elite: stopping the run (thirty first within the nation) and operating the ball (84th). The latter definitely ought to get higher, however how significantly better after main turnover on each strains?
No. 6 Notre Dame
The Combating Irish have a brand new defensive coordinator in Chris Ash after Al Golden left for the NFL and are changing the backbone of a wonderful protection, with new starters at defensive sort out, center linebacker and security. Expertise shouldn’t be an issue, however efficient schemes and management will probably be tougher to duplicate.
No. 7 Oregon
The Geese had three defensive linemen drafted within the first three rounds in April, and each beginning offensive tackles have been additionally picked. Dan Lanning’s expertise acquisition and improvement machine will probably be examined. Nothing is more durable to switch than massive, athletic our bodies.
No. 8 Alabama
Ty Simpson reportedly has earned the Week 1 begin, but when the outdated saying about having a number of quarterbacks means you have got none applies, Kalen DeBoer’s second season in Tuscaloosa may very well be much like his first.
No. 9 LSU
The Tigers leaned into the switch portal to patch holes within the protection. They went down this street a few years in the past and flamed out. This time the procuring spree was higher funded, but when that doesn’t produce higher outcomes, LSU will stay a notch behind the very best of the very best within the SEC.
No. 10 Miami
Quarterback Carson Beck’s well being isn’t the one query hanging over Miami’s season. The Hurricanes are additionally counting on a completely rebuilt receiving corps, so two elements of their passing recreation have so much to show.
No. 11 Arizona State
The Solar Devils rode a wave of upstart momentum to a Huge 12 title that will probably be onerous to recreate, particularly with the center and soul of the workforce, Cam Skattebo, on to the NFL. Just like the workforce one spot under it, Arizona State must play higher this season to duplicate its 2024 document.
No. 12 Illinois
Coach Bret Bielema has accomplished an ideal job this offseason pumping up his workforce, one of the crucial skilled within the nation. However right here’s the factor: The Illini don’t simply must be nearly as good as final yr. They must be a superb deal higher to have any probability of matching 2024’s 10-3 document after rating sixtieth within the nation in protection and 63rd in offense in 2024.
No. 13 South Carolina
Betting on a giant follow-up for the Gamecocks after final season’s nine-win breakthrough is placing so much on LaNorris Sellers’ progress, contemplating how a lot South Carolina misplaced across the proficient quarterback and on what was one of the crucial proficient defenses within the nation.
No. 14 Michigan
The Wolverines’ passing recreation was Stone Age-level final season. To repair it, they introduced in extremely touted freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood and fifth-year multi-time switch Mikey Keene. The bar for enchancment is extremely low. Higher would possibly nonetheless be not significantly good.
No. 15 Florida
Nothing is extra vital to the Gators’ success than quarterback DJ Lagway’s well being, however one thing comparable could be mentioned for almost any workforce. The distinction between residing as much as this rating and falling flat towards a tough schedule comes down as to whether coach Billy Napier and his employees are as much as the duty of getting essentially the most out of the proficient roster they constructed.
No. 16 SMU
A lot of the gamers who shaped one of the crucial disruptive defenses within the nation must be changed. There may very well be a major dropoff on that facet of the ball towards a a lot more durable ACC draw that now consists of Clemson and Miami.
No. 17 Kansas State
Can a rebuilt offensive line come collectively effectively sufficient to pave the way in which for the Avery Johnson third-year breakout that Wildcats followers are hoping results in a Huge 12 title?
No. 18 Oklahoma
The hope is Washington State switch John Mateer brings his swashbuckling fashion to the SEC and instantly turns into among the best quarterbacks within the league. However what’s the change fee on almost 4,000 yards from scrimmage and 44 whole touchdowns going from enjoying Utah State, San Diego State and Fresno State to possibly the hardest schedule within the nation?
No. 19 Texas A&M
The Aggies protection was lower than the sum of its elements final season, managing to be barely mediocre regardless of having three defensive linemen drafted within the first three rounds. The again finish is admittedly skilled, however questions stay about whether or not this unit finds a go rush.
No. 20 Indiana
The Hoosiers’ stingy defensive efficiency of 2024 will probably be powerful to repeat towards — right here it comes — what must be a a lot more durable Huge Ten schedule.
No. 21 Ole Miss
The whole makeover of each offensive and defensive strains will decide whether or not Lane Kiffin’s workforce could be in Playoff competition once more. A lot of the gamers that produced a nation-high 4.0 sacks per recreation are gone.
No. 22 Iowa State
The Cyclones had two receivers (Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel) chosen among the many first 80 gamers within the final NFL Draft. That form of expertise doesn’t develop on timber in Ames. Certain, quarterback Rocco Becht is a baller, however he accomplished solely 59 p.c of his passes at 7.7 yards per try with these guys. Can he get higher with out them?
No. 23 Texas Tech
The Purple Raiders received the offseason with a portal spending spree that has followers in Lubbock believing they’re bringing an SEC roster to the Huge 12 title race. It’s an open query whether or not coach Joey McGuire can carry all of it collectively and hold this group on level when and if adversity hits within the first half of the season.
No. 24 Tennessee
Even when you consider Nico Iamaleava was by no means going to be significantly better than he was final yr, there’s a superb probability the Vols are about to worsen at quarterback. Meaning the operating recreation with out Dylan Sampson should be even higher and the protection should be lockdown once more.
No. 25 Boise State
Life after Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty might show to be much more difficult than anticipated. The Broncos’ roster nonetheless appears to be like strong sufficient to be the very best Group of 5 workforce within the nation, however there’s a lot much less room for error with out Jeanty’s means to completely change a recreation.
(Picture: Isaiah Vazquez / Getty Photographs)
