Ben Solak
Seth Walder
Seth Walder
ESPN Analytics
Seth Walder is an analytics author at ESPN, specializing in quantitative evaluation. He’s additionally a daily on “ESPN Guess Dwell” and helps cowl sports activities betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He beforehand labored on the New York Each day Information overlaying the Jets and Giants. You’ll be able to comply with Seth on X by way of @SethWalder.
We acquired our first time beyond regulation body of the 2025 NFL season in Week 2, when the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys ended regulation tied at 37 after three scoring performs within the ultimate minute. The Giants received the coin toss in time beyond regulation and selected to have the second possession. Neither crew scored on their first drive — Dallas finally received on a 46-yard subject aim with simply 4 seconds left in time beyond regulation — nevertheless it introduced up a query: Ought to NFL coaches take the ball first or second in OT? We are saying they need to take it first — nevertheless it’s a detailed name and there are arguments for either side.
From 1974 to 2011, time beyond regulation was sudden demise, good and correct. First crew to attain wins. Successful the coin toss and taking the primary possession was accordingly all the time optimum. Even after 2012, when the NFL adjusted the regular-season guidelines to offer the second-possession crew a drive after a first-possession subject aim, it was nonetheless optimum to take the ball first, as a result of a landing ended the sport. Since 2012, there have been 201 time beyond regulation coin tosses — solely two winners elected to kick off, and solely three winners deferred the selection to choose a facet of the sphere to defend. There was hardly ever any thought to the choice.
Till now. In 2025, the NFL is adopting the postseason time beyond regulation guidelines they’ve used for the previous few seasons through the common season. A primary-possession landing now not ends the time beyond regulation interval. In need of a defensive rating (or a possession that lasts the whole 10-minute further interval), each offenses will now possess the ball. If, on the finish of every first possession, the rating stays tied, then the subsequent rating wins. Ought to the 10-minute time beyond regulation interval expire with the rating nonetheless deadlocked, the sport ends in a tie.
We noticed one thing near this time beyond regulation format play out in Tremendous Bowl LVIII between the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers. It wasn’t precisely analogous, as playoff video games cannot finish in a tie — however the problem of the choice stays. There are benefits to taking the ball first and benefits to taking the ball second, they usually aren’t concrete. They alter relative to each opponent crew power and opponent habits. Within the case of the Chiefs and 49ers, San Francisco’s resolution was closely scrutinized after the crew’s time beyond regulation loss. However extra important than the specifics of the selection was the truth that few on the surface — and even few among the many 49ers — completely understood the entire dynamics at play.
As such, ESPN surveyed analytics staffers from 9 NFL groups with a collection of questions concerning the new regular-season time beyond regulation guidelines for the 2025 season. This 12 months marks the primary common season wherein the time beyond regulation coin flip resolution is a significant second — one wherein sharp groups would possibly discover an edge. However as our survey exhibits, these edges nonetheless aren’t completely clear.
Leap to:Proper coin-toss alternative | Precise coin-toss choiceSBLVIII impact | First or second possession?Different components | Go for 2? | Path over ball?
When groups win the coin toss, what ought to they select?
Responses:
Lean first possession, however matchup components may make second possession possible (3 votes)
Lean second possession, however matchup components may make first possession possible (3 votes)
Virtually all the time first possession (1 vote)
Virtually all the time second possession (1 vote)
True 50-50 (1 vote)
Groups are break up on this resolution. The survey response above signifies that NFL analytics groups are coming to totally different conclusions about the most effective technique. It is comprehensible, as a result of there are countervailing forces at play, and every choice provides a possible benefit.
The second possession crew has the benefit of figuring out what the primary possession crew did on its drive. If the primary possession crew scored a landing, the second possession crew is aware of it should go for any and all fourth downs — which may present a playcalling benefit on third down, too, when the offense is aware of it would not have to achieve the road to realize as a result of it is going to have one other shot. If the primary possession crew failed to attain, the second possession crew is aware of it will probably kick a brief subject aim, even on a fourth-and-1.
However the first possession crew additionally has an edge: It receives the ball in any potential third possession and it will probably shorten the second possession with an extended opening drive. If neither crew scores within the first two drives, or the groups commerce subject targets, then the first-possession crew will get the ball again in a real sudden-death situation.
That is the form of query the place quantitative evaluation helps. However because the outcomes above present, totally different analysts can give you totally different responses to the identical query. So what does ESPN Analytics’ mannequin present?
Editor’s Picks
2 Associated
The brief reply is it favors taking the primary possession, however there’s extra to it. Actually, loads of the choice hinges on touchbacks. In one other crucial rule replace, touchbacks at the moment are popping out to the 35-yard line (up from the 30-yard line final season), and the anticipated charge of the touchback adjustments this evaluation.
If touchbacks proceed close to the 64% charge they occurred final season, then our simulation mannequin would estimate the first-possession crew’s web probabilities to win at 53.6%. However touchbacks will seemingly be much less frequent given the yard-line change. If touchbacks drop to, say, a 40% charge, then we’d estimate a 52.6% web win likelihood for the first-possession crew. If it falls to 10%, then the first-possession crew would have a 50.9% web win likelihood.
It is because having the ball on the 35 helps the first-possession crew. If they’re compelled to punt or commit a turnover, will probably be farther downfield — thus lessening the likelihood of a second-possession rating and enhancing subject place for a 3rd possession.
However what is really related is not the leaguewide common touchback charge; it is the touchback charges for a crew and its opponent. And the crew kicking off has important management over whether or not there’s a touchback. In different phrases, if a crew chooses to kick, it will probably achieve this figuring out it’s making an attempt to keep away from a touchback (although this might value it a few yards if the kick is brief). Sharp groups that win the coin toss in opposition to touchback-heavy opponent kickers would possibly elect to take the primary possession, hoping to start out method up on the 35.
In the end, if we had been filling out the survey, we’d reply with: “Lean first possession, however matchup components may make second possession possible.” If a crew knew it was going to keep away from a touchback, it is shut sufficient that further context may push the optimum resolution to second possession. However our evaluation means that more often than not groups should go for the primary possession.
When groups win the coin toss, what is going to they select?
Responses:
The disparity between these first two questions is attention-grabbing. Even among the groups that consider that first possession is the proper alternative additionally consider most groups will go for the second possession.
Why may that be? We now have one concept.
Better of NFL Nation
• Carroll, Harbaugh rivalry timeline• How C.J. Stroud balances life, religion• Baker in the hunt for wins in Yr 3• Why Geno Smith feels at residence• Explaining Joe Burrow’s turf toe harm
Do you suppose the results of the 49ers-Chiefs Tremendous Bowl time beyond regulation will have an effect on OT decision-making for groups within the 2025 common season?
Responses:
Sure (6 votes)
No (2 votes)
One crew abstained
In Tremendous Bowl LVIII, the 49ers received the time beyond regulation coin toss and selected first possession. the remaining: The 49ers kicked a subject aim on their possession, and the Chiefs responded by scoring a Tremendous Bowl-winning landing.
Afterward, we discovered that the Chiefs had been shocked by the 49ers’ resolution to take the primary possession. Even figuring out the consequence, analytics staffers had been break up. However nonetheless, it isn’t exhausting to think about there might be a long-lasting impact as head coaches attempt to keep away from the warmth coach Kyle Shanahan took.
Not like within the postseason, regular-season time beyond regulation lasts solely 10 minutes and may end up in a tie. In comparison with the postseason rule, does that favor first possession or second possession?
Responses:
You’ll be able to perceive how groups may see this each methods.
The sting to the first-possession crew is that it will probably slow-roll its opening drive. It is attainable it will probably rating on its first possession and depart the second-possession crew solely a few minutes to reply.
Then again, the shortened timeframe implies that the third possession — the first-possession crew’s huge benefit — turns into much less prone to occur as a result of time may expire.
ESPN’s mannequin exhibits just about no distinction in web win likelihood between the playoffs and common season. It strikes ever so barely towards second possession however shut sufficient that we won’t rule out it being simply noise.
Which matchup components may have an effect on a first- vs. second-possession resolution for groups?
Responses (Survey respondents had been requested to examine all that apply):
Relative power of offense vs. protection (8 votes)
Climate (6 votes)
Need or lack thereof to go for 2 (5 votes)
Need or lack thereof to go for fourth downs (4 votes)
Worth of a tie for choosing crew (4 votes)
Fatigue on one facet of the ball (2 votes)
One of many arguments in opposition to the 49ers’ Tremendous Bowl resolution was that it gave Patrick Mahomes & Co. the informational benefit to go for fourth downs and, in a touchdown-touchdown situation, the power to go for 2. That appears legitimate, and when groups really feel the primary and second possession alternative may be very shut, contemplating every crew’s strengths may play a task.
Breaking Information from Adam Schefter
Obtain the ESPN app and allow Adam Schefter’s information alerts to obtain push notifications for the newest updates first. Decide in by tapping the alerts bell within the prime proper nook. For extra info, click on right here.
The primary-possession crew will even need to tangle with doubtlessly troublesome and controversial fourth-down selections in an uncommon recreation state. It will likely be weighing how a lot to danger to maintain a non-sudden-death drive alive, with failure leading to a sudden-death drive for its opponents. The second-possession crew has a lot easier fourth-down issues because it is aware of what occurred on the primary drive. A crew’s confidence in its personal potential to get these calls proper may push its resolution.
A shock to us: Most groups didn’t choose fatigue as being a driving issue. We figured a coach whose protection was gassed would possibly need first possession to offer his gamers a breather (or, conversely, take first possession when the opponent’s protection is gassed). Maybe that is simply one thing the coach would possibly issue in additional closely than analysts. Or perhaps we overrated that dynamic.
What is the “go for 2” technique? That is easy. If the primary possession crew scores a landing, it should kick the PAT. If the second-possession crew additionally scores a landing, it ought to go for 2. Why? As a result of in any other case it could be giving its opponent a real sudden-death possession. There’s just about no argument to deviate from that plan. The one edge case is a scenario wherein a tie is atypically useful, however a loss could be detrimental — as was the case for the Chargers within the notorious Chargers-Raiders Week 18 recreation within the 2021 season.
Will any crew go for 2 after scoring a landing on the primary possession?
Responses:
Why should not the primary crew go for 2? If it kicks the PAT and its opponent scores a landing, its win likelihood turns into merely the possibility it will probably cease the opponent’s 2-point try (roughly 50%, maybe a shade larger). By comparability, if it goes for 2 and fails, it is going to lose virtually on a regular basis when its opponent scores a landing (as a result of the opponent will know to kick a PAT). If the first-possession crew goes for 2 and converts, it nonetheless will not win the entire time, as a result of its opponent may additionally go for 2 and convert.
With iconic tales, hit Originals and reside sports activities, there’s one thing for everybody on Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+. Get all three for a worth you will love.
Will any crew decide to play the wind and select route as an alternative of first or second possession?
Responses:
No (5 votes)
Sure (3 votes)
One crew abstained
As a result of some groups view the primary vs. second possession query as being extraordinarily shut, it is possible they may view an exterior issue corresponding to wind to be extra necessary. In that case, they may select which route to play and defer the primary vs. second possession query to their opponent.
This might be notably significant early within the season — when groups haven’t got a ton of information but on how their opponents behave on kickoffs and may’t precisely predict a touchback chance. However late within the season, when climate is poorer in open-air stadiums, it additionally turns into an element.
ESPN’s Brian Burke contributed evaluation to this report.
