I downright detest the subject of Mike Tomlin being traded. It’s all bark and no chunk. A media fodder dialogue that comes up yearly and quantities to nothing. The stuff Mike Florio loves teasing (critically, he does it so flippin’ typically for a bunch of coaches that I’m actually typing additional phrases simply to make room for extra hyperlinks) however even not too long ago appears resigned to the actual fact it doesn’t occur, paying much less consideration to calls of Tomlin and the Giants than he normally does.
The final true head coach commerce, one actively teaching a crew (so discounting Sean Payton and Bruce Arians) was Herm Edwards after the 2005 season. That happened one month earlier than the Steelers gained Tremendous Bowl XL and was largely over a contract dispute.
These items merely don’t occur. However, if it does with Mike Tomlin, right here’s when it will take advantage of sense. Not after this season for the 2026 offseason. Give it one other 12 months, after 2026 and main into 2027. For a bunch of causes.
One, and perhaps most significantly, the contract. Mike Tomlin signed his newest extension in June of 2024. It’s a deal that runs by the 2027 season. Artwork Rooney II has at all times handed out extensions no later than the summer season of that last 12 months of the deal to keep away from the “lame duck” head coach. It’s a follow many of the NFL follows.
No coach needs to enter an expiring contract. It’s tougher to persuade free brokers to signal long-term if there’s a fear the coach will probably be gone subsequent 12 months (despite the fact that 25 % of the league will get fired annually). And it attracts loads of media consideration. It was an enormous story when Mike McCarthy coached out the ultimate 12 months of his take care of Dallas, exiting after the 2024 season.
That might put Rooney in a thorny spot. If Pittsburgh’s stagnation continues, will Rooney pony up one other contract in the summertime of 2026? Tomlin is likely one of the highest-paid coaches not simply within the NFL however American sports activities. Every time he will get a contract with out a playoff win added to his resume, the tougher it’s to justify.
Rooney might hearth Tomlin after 2025 or 2026. That’s at all times an choice. However it dangers consuming the cash, one thing Rooney and the franchise hates to do. They not often hearth coaches and like for them to easily expire earlier than transferring on. Matt Canada was a serious outlier. I suppose Tomlin might have contract offsets if he takes one other job, however a head coach fired in Pittsburgh hasn’t occurred since Invoice Austin in 1968.
A commerce strikes on from Tomlin, doesn’t require Rooney to foot the invoice, and brings in compensation in return for the subsequent head coach.
It might even be ceremonial. A “neat” option to shut the chapter. By the shut of 2026, Tomlin may have coached in Pittsburgh for precisely 20 years. He’ll nearly actually have surpassed Chuck Noll for many common season wins. He’s at present 5 away, 193 to 188. Assuming Pittsburgh doesn’t end the common season with 11 victories, a protected guess, Tomlin will do no higher in 2025 than tie.
It’ll be simpler for Rooney to say: Mike Tomlin went to 2 Tremendous Bowls, gained one, coached 20 years, and gained extra video games than every other Steelers coach. He’s achieved all he can do. Chapter closed.
A Tomlin exit would doubtlessly coincide with Cam Heyward’s last run. And nearly actually Aaron Rodgers’ if he returns in 2026 and if he returns to the Steelers (I’m nonetheless watching if Minnesota will take an offseason swing; the Vikings clearly aren’t bought on J.J. McCarthy). Heyward is just below contract by subsequent 12 months and a Rodgers return, which Pittsburgh appears extremely receptive to, could be one other one-year deal.
Take into account it the final hurrah for these guys and a clear break to step into no matter comes subsequent. To not point out T.J. Watt and Jalen Ramsey are solely signed by 2028 and will probably be nicely into their 30s forward come the 2027 offseason.
A transfer subsequent 12 months wouldn’t require any change with GM Omar Khan. Hiring head coaches and common managers individually is at all times a bit messy. Most groups do it on the identical time to search out the fitting mesh. However a brand new head coach might have a one-year check run with Khan, who’s signed by 2028, with Rooney making a call on the opposite aspect.
Making a common supervisor change can be uncommon in Pittsburgh however after all, this assumption builds in a Mike Tomlin commerce. If that occurs, every part else is on the desk. We’ve seen head coaches win the Steelers energy wrestle earlier than (see Cowher vs Donahoe).
The calculation of “who will exchange Tomlin?” largely shouldn’t issue into the choice, although it’s a typical retort. That’s not how positions of energy get evaluated. It’s go/fail. Both they deserve to remain on the job for his or her deserves or they don’t. In any other case, you’re hanging on and looking out over your shoulder for a prettier choice. Nonetheless, simply as NFL scouts maintain tabs on what’s in entrance of them and what’s forward, the 2026 teaching carousel appears to be like bleak. There’s not a robust pool of candidates. No can’t-miss title like Ben Johnson to make a run at.
Simply have a look at the majority of the record The Athletic supplied one month in the past: Kliff Kingsbury, Mike McCarthy, Matt Nagy, Arthur Smith and Joe Brady lead it. Kingsbury failed as a head coach already, McCarthy is simply “we’ve got Mike Tomlin at dwelling” (actually, contemplating he’s a Greenfield native), Payments’ followers despise Brady (Joe and Tom), selling Smith evokes nobody, and Nagy – how did he get on the record? For a Steelers’ job that comes upon much less typically than the Pope’s, this isn’t the time to make a change.
Though half of every 12 months’s shiny hires inevitably implode, victims of the Peter Precept, the choices look as dangerous as ever.
Is a Tomlin commerce ever going to occur? In all probability not. Tomlin has company and might’t be shopped round like a participant. And the historical past says it simply doesn’t occur within the fashionable NFL. Like Noll and Cowher, Tomlin is more likely to exit on his phrases.
I’m not advocating for the transfer. I’m agnostic. Or actually, simply ignoring what seems like noise. This dream state of affairs blogged up from different retailers. Soccer’s equal to the college class president providing free pizza on a regular basis. Meaningless prose.
But when there’s a time to have the dialog, it’s subsequent 12 months. We all know for a truth groups have expressed curiosity. Rooney confirmed the Chicago Bears referred to as about Tomlin this previous offseason. Most groups would soar on the likelihood to rent him. If Pittsburgh nonetheless hasn’t discovered a primary spherical quarterback and might’t get previous the Wild Card spherical in 2025 or 2026, a deal that sends Tomlin to wherever for a 2027 first-round decide that might pair a brand new head coach with a primary spherical quarterback feels just like the match.
Now, I’m going again to not speaking about it. Till I’ve to when Mike Florio brings it up once more.
