The Detroit Lions (7-4) and Inexperienced Bay Packers (7-3-1) will face off for the second time this season, this time contained in the comfortable confines of Ford Subject on Thanksgiving Day. Of their first assembly, the Packers took care of enterprise in Week 1, executing a well-thought-out recreation plan and strolling away with a convincing 27-13 victory.
“No one likes dropping. We don’t like dropping,” Lions coach Dan Campbell stated on Monday. “However you open the yr, and we exit to their place, and so they gave it to us fairly good. And a division opponent, you don’t need to begin that approach. […] That’s one of many blessings of taking part in anyone in your division twice: you get one other alternative. And so, we’ve obtained one other alternative in entrance of us at our place on a brief week, and we’re trying ahead to it.”
Whereas the Lions look ahead, we’re going to look again at our Week 1 Keys to Victory article to see whether or not the Lions adopted it, whether or not it labored, how issues are totally different, and what changes should be made for Week 13.
For an in depth take a look at the opposing scheme, be sure to take a look at our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 1 Preview: Breaking down Packers’ offensive and defensive schemes.
Key 1: Run proper up the center
In Week 1, the Lions struggled to run the ball, telegraphing their operating again utilization. When David Montgomery was on the sector, the Lions ran the ball up the center on seven of his 11 makes an attempt, gaining simply 13 yards. Jahmyr Gibbs was constantly deployed outdoors the tackles, dashing outdoors on seven of his 9 makes an attempt, and he gained simply seven dashing yards on his two makes an attempt inside.
Because of this, the Lions’ rushers have been hit behind the road of scrimmage on 73% of their makes an attempt, with each backs being hit behind the LOS on eight of their makes an attempt. On these 16 carries, the Lions managed simply 1.6 yards per carry.
What’s modified? The Lions run inside extra and with larger success
Since Week 1, when dashing between the tackles, Gibbs has averaged 54.9 dashing yards per recreation, with a 7.96 yards per carry output, whereas Montgomery is averaging 23.7 yards per recreation, with a 4.9 yards per carry common.
Changes? Function extra Gibbs runs in between the tackles
Regardless of needing to depend on Kayode Awosika at left guard, the Lions have continued their success inside. Since turning to Awosika, the Lions common 3.5 yards BEFORE contact when operating inside—most within the NFL.
Most of that success might be attributed to Gibbs, who has a league-leading 423 yards earlier than contact, per Subsequent Gen Stats. Now, some might level out that these numbers are a bit skewed by Gibbs’ 69-yard landing in time beyond regulation vs. the Giants and his 78-yard landing vs. the Bucs, each of which he was untouched. However as Subsequent Gen Stats factors out, even in case you take away these runs, Gibbs would nonetheless lead the NFL with a median of 1.8 yards earlier than contact per carry.
Key 2: Carry the struggle to Micah Parsons
With Week 1 being Parsons’ first recreation with the workforce, Inexperienced Bay principally deployed him on apparent passing downs, and he solely noticed the sector on seven dashing performs. Whereas he solely managed to make one deal with on these seven run performs, the impression of Parsons being on the sector nonetheless impacted the sport, as these performs resulted in a complete of -2 dashing yards
What’s modified? Parsons performs practically each snap now
Since Week 1, Parsons has performed between 68% and 90% of defensive snaps frequently, which suggests the Lions might want to account for him extra regularly.
Changes? Double-team him and make one other defender step up
Parsons is presently tied for the NFL lead with 60 pressures (with Aidan Hutchinson), per Subsequent Gen Stats, regardless of groups doubling him 21.3% of the time. There’s little doubt of his move dashing prowess. Nonetheless, the Packers’ protection is slower and fewer efficient when Parsons is off the sector or taken out of the play.
For instance, when Parsons will get stress, quarterbacks must throw the ball inside 2.81 seconds; outdoors of Parsons, that quantity drops to three.06 seconds. Rashan Gary, who performs the other edge, is having success with Parsons drawing consideration, however his time to stress is 3.25 seconds. And on common, the Packers have wanted 5.0 seconds per sack this season, the fourth-longest common time to sack within the NFL.
Whereas a game-changer as a move rusher, Parsons is a stable however common run defender. Whereas the Lions’ dashing focus must be inside, search for the Lions to attempt to use Parsons’ aggressive nature towards him and deploy lure and wham blocks once they need to kick runs outdoors.
Key 3: Comply with your OL “guidelines”
The Lions have been gradual to adapt to the Packers’ disguise and inside stress in Week 1, permitting 4 sacks and 15 pressures.
What’s modified? Nothing, they nonetheless apply
The Packers haven’t modified a lot with their method to their defensive entrance; the Lions merely must execute higher.
Changes? Extra 6 OL (Jumbo) units
After dropping tight finish Sam LaPorta for the season, the Lions have shifted away from 12 personnel (1 operating again and a couple of tight finish units) and towards extra 11 personnel and Jumbo units. The truth is, during the last two weeks, the Lions have used 12 personnel on just one snap whereas growing their Jumbo units by deploying Dan Skipper 20 occasions, together with 15 snaps final week.
Right here’s Subsequent Gen Stats on the Lions’ utilization of Jumbo units and why it’s efficient (emphasis is the author’s):
“The Lions have used jumbo personnel (6+ OL) on the Eleventh-highest price this season (5.6%), regardless of recording their first jumbo snap of the season in Week 6 towards the Chiefs. They’ve averaged 9.2 yards per play throughout their 38 snaps utilizing jumbo personnel, probably the most of any offense to have used jumbo personnel greater than 10 occasions in a season through the Subsequent Gen Stats period (since 2016). In Week 12 towards the Giants, they used jumbo personnel on a season-high 15 snaps, leading to 185 yards and a couple of touchdowns (12.3 yards/play), probably the most such yards by any offense in a recreation this season.”
Prepare for lots of “No. 70 has reported as eligible” notifications from referee Ron Tolbert.
Keys 4 & 5: Discover St. Brown vs. Cowl-3, Jamo vs. Cowl-1
In opposition to the Packers’ shell protection, Jared Goff was continually in check-down mode. His 3.3 air yards to focus on (how far the move traveled earlier than it arrived on the goal) was one of many lowest marks of his profession. Of his 43 passing makes an attempt, solely eight have been over 10 yards, and he accomplished simply 5. On the day, Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 4 passes on six targets for 45 yards, whereas Jameson Williams secured 4 of his 5 for simply 23 yards.
What’s modified? Packers’ protection, Jamo route tree
In Week 1, the Packers usually dropped eight into zone protection and solely performed man protection 9.3% of the time. Since then, the Packers have elevated their man protection to 19.1%, however that’s nonetheless a bottom-five utilization league-wide.
In Week 1, Williams was nonetheless being deployed on deep routes, gadget performs, and screens; nonetheless, since coach Dan Campbell has taken over, the Lions have lastly unlocked Williams’ route tree. Whereas Williams is coming off a zero catch efficiency, he has 10 receptions for 207 yards and two touchdowns within the earlier two video games with Campbell calling performs, and is predicted to have a bounce-back recreation.
Changes? Fast completions want extra YAC, extra Jamo crossers
When Goff’s air yards to focus on common fewer than 4.0, it limits the offensive effectiveness, and the Lions have misplaced three of the 5 video games when he’s been held to this output. That is precisely why the Packers are prone to dial up their zone-heavy shell protection once more in Week 13.
Understanding this protection is probably going on the docket, Campbell says the Lions should be affected person and execute:
“Effectively, you’ve obtained to be affected person. You do. That’s what this protection forces you to do. They’re going to pressure you to be affected person. And actually, the groups which have had bother are those that don’t keep affected person, and so they begin attempting to do issues that get out of the norm. […] So, you’ve obtained to watch out, you’ve obtained to remain environment friendly. There’s nothing straightforward about it. However, look, you play a few of that recreation, sooner or later, when that chance arises, we’ve obtained to hit on that. And also you don’t know when it’s going to be, however you’ve obtained to have the ability to hit. And then you definitely’ve obtained to get some YAC. A few of these beneath throws, you’ve obtained to get some YAC. And that’s what our guys will likely be charged with. Our gamers on this workforce, our playmakers, they’re going to must put it of their palms, tuck it away and go make one thing occur after which get able to get within the huddle and let’s do it once more.”
Whatever the effectiveness of the Lions’ floor recreation, St. Brown and Williams might want to assist carry this workforce down the sector.
Key 6: Prioritize stopping the run
Did it work? Yeah, however not sufficient
This season, the Packers’ dashing assault averages 116.5 yards per recreation (fifteenth within the NFL) with a median of 4.0 yards per carry (twenty fourth). Josh Jacobs sometimes accounts for 64.8 dashing yards per recreation (3.8 YPC) and 1.1 touchdowns per recreation. General, their dashing assault is extra common than good.
In Week 1, the Lions held the Packers to 78 yards as a workforce (3.1 YPC), whereas Jacobs amassed 66 yards (3.5 YPC) and a landing. That’s a stable efficiency from the Lions’ protection, however for a unit that ranks sixth in DVOA run protection, they will actually do higher.
What’s modified? Alim McNeill is again
McNeill was not out there for the primary assembly between these two groups, and his presence ought to additional profit the Lions’ defensive entrance.
Changes? Restrict Jacobs and make Jordan Love beat you
Jacobs finds most of his success operating between the tackles (382 makes an attempt, 49% success price, 3.9 YPC), together with scoring eight of his 11 touchdowns on this method, in comparison with dashing outdoors (266 makes an attempt, 38% success price, 3.7 YPC). Search for the Lions to stay with their heavy deployment of base protection, with a give attention to shutting down the operating lanes between the tackles.
Whereas the Packers’ dashing assault will not be as regarding as their passing assault, it’s within the Lions’ DNA to proceed to prioritize stopping the run, as one-dimensional offenses are simpler to defend over the course of a recreation.
In opposition to Love in Week 1, the Lions blitzed him on 47.8% of his dropbacks, and he gashed them for 121 yards and a landing on simply 5 of seven completions. Since then, defenses have discovered success towards him by deploying man and zone Cowl-2 ideas, whereas lowering their blitzing tendencies (30%) and forcing him to make robust throws. To counter, Love turned his consideration to tight finish Tucker Kraft, who was on his approach to a profession yr earlier than struggling a season-ending damage.
Since dropping Kraft for the season, the Packers’ YAC has plummeted, and consequently, Love has countered by throwing downfield extra, growing his common air yards per goal by practically 4 yards. Love’s favourite downfield goal since Week 8 has been Christian Watson, who has caught 4 of his 9 targets 20+ yards down the sector for 127 yards and a landing, greater than the remainder of the Packers’ talent gamers mixed.
Whereas the Lions, on common, use Cowl-2 ideas in solely 16% of their defensive coverages, they’ve proven the flexibility to adapt their scheme to the quarterback. Search for the Lions to include extra disguise ideas to decelerate Love’s processing and attempt to stop him from pushing the ball downfield. Don’t be shocked if the Lions present Watson some bracket protection in sure elements of the sector.
Key 7: Unleash Aidan Hutchinson
In his first recreation again from a damaged leg that ended his 2024 season, Hutchinson produced simply two pressures and nil tackles towards the Packers in Week 1.
What’s modified? It’s not Hutchinson’s first recreation again from damage
Within the 10 video games since Week 1, Hutchinson has discovered his groove. Presently, he averages 2.7 tackles and 5.8 pressures per recreation. As talked about earlier, Hutchinson is tied with Parsons for the NFL lead in pressures, per Subsequent Gen Stats, whereas PFF credit Hutchinson with an NFL-leading 68 pressures (Parsons is at 60 in PFF’s metric).
Changes? Proceed to rely on Hutchinson… however he’s going to wish assist
Whereas Hutchinson might want to proceed to play just like the Lions’ characteristic defensive participant, he’s going to wish some assist from his different linemen. Early within the recreation, meaning the Lions will possible want Alim McNeill to step up his recreation, and if they will get Love into apparent passing conditions, then Al-Quadin Muhammad (and possibly Marcus Davenport and Josh Paschal) can reduce free.
Whereas McNeill has performed extra 4i in latest weeks, the potential return of Davenport and Paschal ought to permit the Lions to push him again inside, the place he may cause disruption from the inside. Whereas Packers followers/writers insist that transformed guard Sean Rhyan isn’t a downgrade from beginning middle Elgton Jenkins, the numbers recommend in any other case. Since dropping Jenkins, the Packers have allowed stress on 43.4% of their dropbacks (third-highest price within the NFL), with Rhyan being credited with a stress price of 6.3%, practically two proportion factors larger than Jenkins, per Subsequent Gen Stats. The Packers benched former first-round decide proper guard Jordan Morgan for Anthony Belton mid-game final week. This could current McNeill with a chance to check for cracks within the new formation.
The addition of extra edge rushers can also be positive to assist the Lions’ edge alternatives; nonetheless, Muhammad may very well be a key contributor if the Lions get the Packers into apparent passing conditions. Muhammad has generated 38 pressures on the season (one wanting a profession excessive) and has confirmed to be a participant who can discover and get to the quarterback. Whereas not a characteristic participant within the Lions’ base units, Muhammad is precisely the kind of participant the Lions might want to win this recreation.
