It’s apparent one of many main issues of the 2025 Detroit Lions was their protection. On a weekly foundation, the Lions have been giving up explosive play after explosive play, and in key moments, Detroit’s protection simply couldn’t get off the sector. It solely appeared to worsen, as even the Lions’ normally-steady run protection collapsed down the stretch.
The dialog is a bit more nuanced across the Lions’ 2025 offense. With out former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and All-Professional middle Frank Ragnow, it’s clear that unit took a step again, too. However how a lot of a step again?
On the floor, the Lions went from the highest-scoring offense (33.2 factors per recreation) the third-highest scoring offense (28.9), which doesn’t appear all that dangerous. We’re nonetheless speaking a couple of top-five offense in scoring, which you’d suppose could be ok to make a playoff run. Nevertheless, issues have been dangerous sufficient to warrant a change in play-caller midseason, and a few stats could also be a bit deceptive.
So I’m going to take a deeper dive into the Lions’ offensive statistics to see simply how a lot regression there was on offense, and the way shut the Lions can get to leaping proper again to an elite offense.
What the bottom statistics say about Lions’ offensive regression
While you take a look at a few of the most commonly-used statistics, the distinction between 2024 and 2025 doesn’t appear all that a lot.
Clearly, scoring greater than 4 factors fewer per recreation just isn’t insignificant, however by most traditional metrics, we’re speaking a couple of top-three offense dropping to a top-six offense. There doesn’t seem like a lot drop off in speeding, however in each yards per try and passer ranking, there was a smal decline.
Superior metrics inform a special story
Sadly, I don’t imagine the above metrics do an excellent job of portray an correct image. There are a couple of causes for that—I’ll get to them as we go—however superior stats like Anticipated Factors Added (EPA) and success fee have been created to present a bit extra context to performances and extra precisely seize effectivity. The simplest instance is a 15-yard draw on a third-and-20 play. By total yards and yards per carry, that’s going to appear like a really profitable play. By EPA and success fee, that’s an apparent failure.
So once we take a look at these stats on the general offense, we do see a extra important drop:
Now we’re not simply speaking a couple of drop from a top-tier offense to a top-10 one. The Lions offense might be higher described as simply “above common” primarily based on EPA and success fee. However the issue is a bit more particular than simply total offense.
Detroit’s passing assault has, certainly, taken a step again, however Jared Goff and firm are nonetheless producing effectivity marks at a top-10 stage. EPA has dropped practically 40 p.c and success fee by 5.7%—which is actually a notable drop. Nevertheless it’s the speeding offense that has seen the calamitous plummet.
Detroit went from having a top-five speeding assault within the NFL to a bottom-10 one. Jahmyr Gibbs’ stats might not appear like one among a struggling speeding assault (1,143 yards, 13 TDs, 5.1 YPC), however relating to Detroit’s down-to-down effectivity, they’ve been horrible working the ball. As I identified late final week, the Lions’ total speeding stats are being largely propped up by a handful of extraordinarily explosive performs:
This 12 months, the Lions at present lead the NFL with 9 rushes of 30+ yards. If we play the Kelvin Sheppard recreation and take away all 9 of these rushes, the Lions’ total stats plummet:
406 carries, 1,451 yards, 3.6 yards per carry
Merely put: for almost all of the season, the Lions have been horrible at working the soccer.
Yep, it’s the offensive line
It’s exhausting to seek out actual stats which are capable of solely spotlight offensive line efficiency. A stat like speeding yards earlier than contact comes shut, however it may be simply swayed by outliers like an 80-yard run from a working again that goes untouched. For what it’s price, the Lions went from 1.79 yards earlier than contact per carry (sixth) in 2024 to 1.56 (tenth), in order that does catch a few of the downgrade.
FTN Fantasy additionally has a statistic known as “Adjusted Line Yards.” Their definition of that metric is defined in additional right here, however, in brief, it takes speeding knowledge and tries to eradicate a few of the “noise” of lengthy runs to get a statistic that will get nearer to isolating the offensive line’s affect on the run recreation.
In 2024, the Lions ranked first within the NFL with 5.08 adjusted line yards. This 12 months, they’re all the best way right down to twenty second at 4.21 adjusted line yards.
Or, you can go along with the extra subjective PFF grade. Right here’s a take a look at the Lions’ run blocking grades from their beginning lineup final 12 months:
LT: Taylor Decker: 70.3 (twenty second amongst OTs)LG: Graham Glasgow: 60.1 (thirtieth)C: Frank Ragnow: 90.9 (1st)RG: Kevin Zeitler: 87.2 (2nd)RT: Penei Sewell: 91.5 (2nd)
LT: Taylor Decker: 59.8 (thirty eighth)LG: Christian Mahogany: 69.7 (nineteenth)C: Graham Glasgow: 55.4 (twenty ninth)RG: Tate Ratledge: 73.8 (t-Eleventh)RT: Penei Sewell: 96.8 (1st)
And don’t neglect go safety, both. This 12 months, the Lions forfeited 36 sacks at a sack fee of 6.3%. Final 12 months—in another recreation—gave up 33 sacks at a 5.7% fee. They’re additionally permitting extra stress (34.4% vs. 33.5%) and considerably faster stress (2.50 seconds vs. 2.74) this 12 months.
A part of the explanation issues don’t look as dangerous when taking a look at extra fundamental statistics is as a result of the Lions completely thrashed a few of the worst defenses in soccer this 12 months. Have a look at their performances in opposition to the bottom-10 scoring defenses within the league (Bears, Buccaneers, Giants, Commanders, Bengals, Cowboys):
Now, let’s take a look at these stats in opposition to the top-10 scoring defenses within the league (Eagles, Chiefs, Rams, Vikings, Vikings)
Clearly, most groups are going to look a lot worse in opposition to higher defenses. However final 12 months, the Lions appeared to have higher solutions for a few of the finest defenses within the league. Check out the 2024 splits:
2024 Lions offense in opposition to bottom-10 defenses:
2024 Lions offense in opposition to top-10 defenses:
The Vikings video games are the right comparability between the 2 years. Detroit appeared to be the one staff that had Brian Flores discovered final 12 months (and in 2023, as nicely). This 12 months, they put up two of their worst offensive performances of your complete season in opposition to Minnesota.
So how massive of a step again?
Effectively, when it comes to total effectivity, the Lions’ offense was nonetheless ok to win them soccer video games. However the speeding effectivity didn’t simply take a small step again, it was an enormous one. And for a staff that prides itself of smash-mouth soccer, 2025 was an enormous failure and a big step again.
The conclusion right here is an apparent one: the Lions have to spend money on their offensive line badly this offseason. Whether or not it was an excessive amount of belief of their younger gamers, a hamstrung wage cap, unfortunate accidents, or a poorly-timed retirement, the Lions uncared for their offensive entrance and your complete staff paid for it.
Whereas the protection has its personal issues, the offense largely didn’t do them any favor. Consider the latest Steelers and Rams recreation, when the sport obtained out of hand after repeated three-and-outs from the offense, leaving the protection out to dry for generally 10-12 minutes per quarter. With a strong working recreation that may management the clock, give the protection a relaxation, and put stress on the opponents to attain, the Lions might recapture their id in 2026.
