The explanation the Dodgers gave Kyle Tucker an enormous contract – and the Mets tried to do the identical, and the Blue Jays too – is fairly apparent. Their outfield was a comparatively poor unit, and Tucker is a star, rating as a top-10 place participant within the sport during the last 5 seasons. Generally, it truly is that easy: Staff with want fills that want.
However not every part right here is easy, and it begins with taking a look at what occurred in Tucker’s lone yr with the Cubs, when his splits broke down like this:
Effectively, isn’t that attention-grabbing? It’s an enormous distinction, actually. Amongst gamers with 200 plate appearances of their dwelling park, Tucker was a hundred and twentieth. He was Lenyn Sosa, or Jake Mangum. But amongst gamers with 200 plate appearances on the street, Tucker was eighth, and it is a listing the place the highest six learn “Decide, Ohtani, Raleigh, Marte, Kurtz and Soto.”
It makes it straightforward to dream about what’s subsequent, now that he’s out of Wrigley, the as soon as “Pleasant Confines,” which has now grow to be one of many tougher locations within the Majors to hit, rating because the Twenty sixth-best hitter’s park during the last two years. (Cubs rookie pitcher Cade Horton had a 1.63 ERA at Wrigley, but a 3.59 ERA on the street, for instance. Veteran Matthew Boyd was 2.51 at dwelling and three.90 on the street.)
That’s particularly so given how batter-friendly Dodger Stadium is now – sixth-best in 2024-25 – and that Tucker had primarily zero dwelling/street splits in his seven years as an Astro. Whereas it’s vital to notice that “how did a batter carry out within the park he signed to go to?” carries roughly zero predictive worth, it’s additionally not less than entertaining to notice that in 58 plate appearances at Dodger Stadium, playoffs included, he’s hit .340/.421/.540 in 58 PA with two homers – which is likely one of the 10 greatest strains in that park within the final six seasons.
So: Full velocity forward for Tucker as a Dodger, marrying that elite street line with a newly improved dwelling line to grow to be a top-five hitter within the sport? Certain, possibly. However not till we glance somewhat into the why of what occurred in Wrigley, above and past no matter influence got here from enjoying by a fractured hand as he fell right into a summer time stoop.
Because it seems, Wrigley did have an effect on him … however possibly not in the best way you would possibly suppose. A couple of issues can all be true on the identical time.
1) Sure, Wrigley did seemingly rob him of some manufacturing.
A straightforward approach to do that is solely to take a look at the “anticipated” stats, which consider each amount and high quality of contact to get to what a participant may need been anticipated to supply unbiased of ballpark, protection, and luck. (One straightforward to clarify this: When Pete Crow-Armstrong made a pleasant leaping catch on the wall to take a success away from Aaron Decide, it gave Decide a .000 [0-1] within the field rating, but he received a +.930 in his anticipated common to mirror the ability it took to crush a ball like that.)
On the street, Tucker received mainly precisely what was anticipated: His anticipated batting common (xBA) was 8 factors decrease than his precise common, and his anticipated weighted on-base common (xwOBA) was 9 factors decrease. That’s all shut sufficient to say “it’s a wash,” and that what Tucker produced is what you’d anticipate. That’s excellent news, anyway, if you happen to have been questioning if the street numbers have been simply small-sample good luck ( doesn’t appear so).
At dwelling, although, Wrigley actually did take away manufacturing. His precise batting common was 18 factors lower than anticipated; his precise wOBA was 27 factors decrease than anticipated, and most of that was in slugging, the place he underperformed anticipated by 54 factors. If that 27-point wOBA deficit had been his full-season mark, it’d have been one of many largest in baseball, and No. 1 on that listing is a man who performs for a crew who simply determined it was time to drag within the fences.
It’s not exhausting to see why. As we wrote early final yr, no park in baseball was affected by wind greater than Wrigley, and befitting the town’s title, it actually wasn’t even shut.
If you wish to actually see what that appears like, simply hearken to broadcaster Jon Sciambi describe the “welcome to Wrigley second” on this early-season ball that Tucker seemingly smashed … proper right into a warning monitor flyout.
So, positive. Wrigley harm him, in precisely the best way you’d anticipate. There’s simply extra to it than that.
2) But additionally, he was merely a lesser hitter in Wrigley.
But if it was simply the wind, then we’d anticipate to see the underlying anticipated stats to be an identical dwelling vs. street, with solely the precise manufacturing altering, and that’s not what occurred. Can we curiosity you in “and in addition, he simply made worse contact there?”
It’s not a tough promote. It’s truly actually, actually clear. If the wind affected him after the ball left the bat, then one thing else was occurring to make the bat simply be much less spectacular within the dwelling pinstripes. Within the chart right here, xBA and xwOBA are the 2 metrics we mentioned above, and a barrel is the right mixture of exit velocity and launch angle. Quick model: “extra” is nice in all of this stuff.
One other strategy to say it’s that amongst gamers with 200 plate appearances each dwelling and street, Tucker was the Tenth-best hitter away from Wrigley but tied for 53rd-best at dwelling. That is earlier than the wind comes into play. That is all about what occurs on the plate, when it comes to strikeouts, walks, and high quality of contact. If he hit worse at dwelling, it’s not less than somewhat as a result of he earned much less there – earlier than the “but additionally, the wind received him” then additionally took impact.
3) But additionally, none of this actually popped up till the fractured hand did.
Once we shared his dwelling/street splits above, we have been being sincere, however an attention-grabbing story was buried inside, which is that this: None of this was actually a problem within the first half. Tucker hit simply advantageous at dwelling, till he didn’t.
So, what may need brought on his dwelling efficiency to break down whereas his street work didn’t? It’s partially a small pattern factor; a late season calf harm meant that Tucker barely performed in any respect in September. But it surely’s additionally very a lot in regards to the unraveling of a ability that had clearly been propelling Tucker and several other of his teammates earlier within the yr, as MLB.com’s David Adler wrote simply after the All-Star Break: pulling the ball within the air, which is in fact one of the simplest ways to do harm.
Contemplate this: Within the first half, Tucker had a 26% pulled-air fee each dwelling and on the street. Within the second half, that crept up barely to 29% on the street… and collapsed fully to 13% at dwelling. One other approach of claiming that’s of the 55 batted balls he hit at Wrigley within the second half, simply seven have been put within the air to the pull facet. This, from a hitter who, earlier within the season, had a number of video games the place he’d do it thrice in a night.
Attending to the why of that will get trickier. One would possibly say that having misplaced a number of too many runs to the Wrigley wind, he stopped making an attempt to beat it, which is why there was no such change on the street — although that is not apparent, on condition that he did carry out effectively total at dwelling earlier within the yr. You possibly can go the opposite path and say that the hand harm prevented him from making the identical type of contact within the air — besides that did not occur on the street.
It’s, most likely, a mixture of all of it, of the hand, the Wrigley wind, and once more that his second half was largely about six weeks lengthy. However both approach, this a lot is obvious: For all of 2024 and the primary half of 2025, he was the fifth-best hitter within the sport, behind solely Decide, Ohtani, Soto, and Yordan Alvarez.
If it actually does end up that enjoying by the hand harm is what brought on his second half to slip, then it may not matter the place calls dwelling. In spite of everything: Tucker has been an elite star for various years now.
