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Who will be the SEC's surprise CFP team in 2026? Surprise hot-seat situation? Conference mailbag

February 17, 2026
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Who will be the SEC's surprise CFP team in 2026? Surprise hot-seat situation? Conference mailbag


Each time we do a mailbag, the unofficial rule is to reply the query that will get essentially the most likes. The explanation that is an unofficial rule is that this week’s query with essentially the most likes: “If the SEC coaches have been taking part in Mario Kart, which characters do you assume every of them would use?”

Mario Cristobal? No downside. Mario Lopez, Mario Puzo, even Tremendous Mario Brothers — 1 and a pair of — are in my wheelhouse. Mario Kart, sadly, is a blind spot.



So we’ll go together with matters such because the impression of the nine-game schedule, the SEC coach almost definitely to be on an surprising sizzling seat, and Will Muschamp, as a result of why not? However first …

(Word: Submitted questions have been edited for readability and size.)

Since each of this stuff have been choices within the 2026 championship recreation, which is extra more likely to occur once more: One other historic have-not like Indiana profitable a nationwide championship (possibly, say: Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Purdue, or Northwestern), or a group outdoors the SEC or Massive Ten profitable a nationwide championship? — Jason H.

Occur once more, or occur this season? If it’s the latter, you’d need to go together with a non-SEC/Massive Ten nationwide champion, since Miami appears lots nearer than any of the normal have-nots. Indiana, lest we overlook, made the Faculty Soccer Playoff in 2024, then simply took it to a different degree final season. The closest parallel this 12 months could be Ole Miss, which may do it with Trinidad Chambliss coming again, however I’m undecided anybody is placing Ole Miss in the identical bucket as Indiana, Vanderbilt, or the groups you talked about. Ole Miss wasn’t a have-not, simply extra a mean group with good spurts.

However that led me down a little bit of a rabbit gap: Who’re the have-nots? And the way do you outline them? So I went to the fantastic web site Winsipedia, and honed in on one stat that will present it finest: bowl appearances. The less you will have, the extra dangerous seasons you’ve had, and since bowl eligibility is extra of a contemporary factor, it avoids propping up groups that have been stronger within the pre-World Struggle II period.

The SEC groups with the fewest bowl appearances: Vanderbilt (11), Kentucky (23), South Carolina (26), Mississippi State (28), Missouri (38).

The Massive Ten groups: Rutgers (13), Indiana (16), Northwestern (18), Purdue (21), Illinois (22), Minnesota (26), Michigan State (30), Maryland (30), Wisconsin (35), UCLA (38), Oregon (38).



The cutoff for me was in the event you have been within the high 25 all time. You’ll discover what number of extra Massive Ten groups are in there — though one simply gained the nationwide title. Minnesota can also be the final program to three-peat as nationwide champions, though it occurred within the Thirties. A lot of these different applications would additionally push again on being the have-not class.

This simply reveals, as soon as once more, how superb Indiana’s story is, however whether or not it’s repeatable, we simply don’t know. Vanderbilt, the Indiana of the SEC, serves as supplementary proof that it could be. However this season? Undecided I see it.

Talking of which:

Who’s the shock group to compete for an SEC championship and/or CFP bid this 12 months? — Josh V.

Piggybacking off the final query, what constitutes a reputable shock? Throw out the 5 SEC groups that made final 12 months’s CFP, plus Texas, as a result of, duh. And also you additionally couldn’t depend LSU as a shock due to Lane Kiffin and his portal haul.

Missouri isn’t a group with super buzz, however the Tigers got here in at No. 13 on Stewart Mandel’s too-early high 25. That’s forward of Ole Miss, LSU and Alabama, amongst others.

Florida snuck into Stewart’s checklist at No. 25, however the Gators would qualify as a shock: 4-8 final 12 months, new coach, new quarterback, every thing. Nonetheless, whereas I like what coach Jon Sumrall has carried out to date, particularly hiring Buster Faulkner as offensive coordinator, a playoff run in 12 months 1 appears a stretch.

Vanderbilt is predicted to dip with out Diego Pavia and Eli Stowers, but it surely does have five-star quarterback Jared Curtis, and after going 10-3, would making the CFP actually be a shock?

Auburn affords intrigue if Alex Golesh bringing quarterback Bryce Brown with him from South Florida improves an offense — even with the losses at receiver — and the protection is as salty as final 12 months. However the Tigers have highway video games at Tennessee, Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama. Yikes.

Kentucky will get a jolt of vitality underneath Will Stein, who had an excellent switch class. However new quarterback Kenny Minchey has zero profession begins, and the Cats are going from the skilled Mark Stoops to a first-time head coach, so I don’t see it immediately.

There isn’t one group I’m in love with as a darkish horse proper now. So I’ll go together with the group that was out of nowhere two years in the past however a disappointment final 12 months: South Carolina, which nonetheless has the identical coach, quarterback and several other different items from that 2024 group. The schedule is back-loaded, so there’s a path the place the Gamecocks are 6-1 going into Oklahoma on Halloween, with an opportunity to hold momentum down the stretch.

With the SEC transferring to 9 video games, do you assume the groups with in-state ACC rivals will hold different beforehand scheduled nonconference video games? I’m undecided the present threat/reward justifies taking part in an eleventh Energy 4 recreation. The committee nonetheless appears to look first on the variety of losses, with different metrics seemingly extra like tiebreakers. — Robby W.

This facilities on 4 groups, and the one which had been essentially the most aggressive in scheduling — Georgia — has began canceling video games: Future collection with Louisville (2026-27) and NC State (2032-33) have been mutually canceled, with each of these opponents additionally seeing their ACC schedule go to 9 video games.

However Georgia nonetheless has three different marquee collection on the books: Florida State (2027-28), Clemson (2028-29) and Ohio State (2029-30). Florida nonetheless has Colorado (2028-29) and Notre Dame (2030-31). South Carolina nonetheless has North Carolina (2028-29).

You’ll discover the remaining collection are all fairly marquee applications, or can be if Deion Sanders and Invoice Belichick are nonetheless teaching these applications. Based mostly on that, it seems income trumps aggressive issue. But it surely gained’t essentially keep that means.

We don’t know the format of the long run Playoff. It can virtually definitely be 16 groups, which might give slightly extra leeway, and 24 could be much more room to soak up a loss. And what if conferences find yourself with assured bids which can be determined by convention report? Then these nonconference video games are a bonus, and in that case, why not schedule an enormous recreation that tv will love?

We’ll throw one other one in: What if the common season is moved to start out in what’s now Week 0 — permitting not less than two bye weeks every season? Then coaches will really feel higher signing off on one other tough recreation.

Then once more, what if none of this occurs and it’s again to a committee? The SEC did get 5 groups in final season, after it pushed for energy of schedule to matter extra. However one of many 9-3 groups unnoticed was Texas, which might have been 10-2 if it scheduled Ohio Wesleyan as a substitute of Ohio State. The SEC will hold its requirement that everybody play one other power-conference opponent, so Texas and 11 different faculties nonetheless need to navigate that tenth recreation. However the different 4 have to determine what number of seasons they need to schedule an eleventh power-conference opponent.

“We’ve received to take a tough take a look at what are we gonna do with these different two video games,” Georgia athletic director Josh Brooks stated in late January, mentioning the CFP metrics. “We’re having a whole lot of discussions with the CFP about metrics and metrics to take a look at concerning the energy of schedule. And we have to see that be rewarded if we’re gonna proceed to play this eleventh recreation of a P4.”

Steve Sarkisian doesn’t enter 2026 on the recent seat, however expectations can be by means of the roof in Austin. (Alex Slitz / Getty Pictures)

Let’s quick ahead to Oct. 18, 2026. Who’s the SEC coach who turns into the subsequent James Franklin, Brian Kelly or Hugh Freeze? Which coach will abruptly be on the recent seat? Tennessee has a tricky schedule. South Carolina? What if Texas misplaced at dwelling to Ohio State, then at Tennessee after which within the rivalry with Oklahoma? He higher beat Florida at dwelling Oct. 17. — Ben D.

Shane Beamer, who has been largely good at South Carolina however is coming off a foul 12 months and wasn’t employed by his present athletic director, is a transparent hot-seat state of affairs. So he doesn’t qualify for this query. In any other case, you nailed the 2 coaches that almost all resemble Franklin and Kelly, coaches who weren’t actually thought-about on the recent seat, however issues went so dangerous early that the transfer was made.

Josh Heupel shouldn’t be at risk. He has carried out a fantastic job making Tennessee related once more. However I’ve all the time puzzled if there’s a ceiling with him, and Volunteer followers are questioning that now and getting antsy. His athletic director, Danny White, is a reasonably aggressive man, however he has additionally employed Heupel twice.

Steve Sarkisian has additionally been superb at Texas, but it surely’s Texas. If subsequent season begins to unravel, look out.

Kalen DeBoer, who you didn’t title, is in the same boat. He’s gained 71 % of his video games in two seasons at Alabama. However he’s changing a man who appeared to win 99 % of the time (it was 87 %, however no matter). You possibly can inform Alabama followers that the sport has modified, even Saban wouldn’t dominate on this period, however their angst will stay. Alabama’s administration believes in DeBoer, and he may in all probability afford one other 9-3 kind season. But when issues worsen than that …

Brett Venables appeared to take himself off the recent seat final 12 months. But when Oklahoma goes within the improper route, with the offense once more struggling, you might see a brand new athletic director making a fast hook.

Let me throw in one other title: Pete Golding. Sure, he had a fantastic playoff run. And he’ll be tremendous if Ole Miss is within the territory of 8-4, aggressive if not Playoff-worthy. But when this group struggles — if it will get embarrassed at dwelling by Lane Kiffin and LSU in Week 3 — there can be questions on whether or not Golding was the appropriate long-term rent.

Is the SEC nonetheless imposing scholarship limits for soccer? — GM M.

The SEC truly voted in December to permit groups to scholarship all 105 gamers on the roster. This was after a season taking part in with a self-imposed 85-scholarship restrict, even after the Home settlement eradicated scholarship limits, changed by roster limits.

However I’m skeptical this can be a large deal, some secret motive the SEC isn’t dominating anymore. Sarkisian is the one coach I heard complaining about it final 12 months, and even he stated he wasn’t positive he’d use all 105. The revenue-sharing cap doesn’t go up because of doing it, so that you’re paying extra gamers with the identical quantity you’d have in the event you solely had 85.

The difficulty for the SEC isn’t being beat out for one of the best gamers ranked 86th to a hundred and fifth in your roster. These guys hardly play, and as we all know, stocking them in your roster for improvement causes doesn’t all the time work within the switch portal period.

The difficulty for the SEC is getting one of the best 40-50 gamers. The convention ended its restrict so groups had flexibility, not as a result of it was seen as an enormous aggressive drawback.

How massive of a blow does the Georgia program really feel the lack of Will Muschamp is? — Aaron H.

One other reader, Lp. P. gave a reasonably correct response: “It looks like this can be a a lot greater ‘get’ for Texas than it’s a loss for UGA, given how he had winnowed down his position in Athens. However he’s a DGD (Rattling Good Dawg), and undoubtedly had massive impression throughout his return.”

Muschamp wasn’t actually doing a lot final season in Athens, and the belief was he was all however in retirement mode. So taking the Texas job in all probability elicited a response akin to, “Wait, may now we have carried out that?” However phrase got here down final week that Texas is paying Muschamp properly over $2 million over the subsequent three years. Georgia already has a defensive coordinator, Glenn Schumann, who’s been calling the protection because the 2022 nationwide championship season, after Dan Lanning left. And whereas the protection hasn’t been fairly as much as the 2021 customary, particularly early final 12 months, it received higher down the stretch of the 2025 season, with out Muschamp being in any apparent massive position.

Plus, Kirby Good will all the time be very concerned with the protection. So it’s honest to name this good for Texas, though the protection hasn’t actually been the primary downside there. If the Longhorns are nice subsequent 12 months it’ll in all probability have extra to do with an improved run recreation, blocking and consistency from the quarterback.

Which SEC groups would profit essentially the most from the NCAA being granted antitrust standing and the flexibility to manage NIL, eligibility and transfers? — Stephen S.

Let’s save this query for when the NCAA is ultimately granted that antitrust standing. So … by no means.



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