The Padres have confirmed as soon as once more that they’re a respectable risk to win the NL West.
After critically testing the Dodgers for the divisional throne in 2024 and ‘25, the Padres have a 29-20 report and sit 1 1/2 video games behind Los Angeles, even after dropping the three-game collection earlier this week in San Diego. Most exceptional about that truth is that the Padres have gotten little or no from their core offensive trio of Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado.
Right here’s the outlook on these three gamers, the place issues have gone improper this season and the probabilities of them bouncing again because the 12 months progresses.
The next numbers are coming into Wednesday’s video games.
Fernando Tatis Jr.2026 numbers: .585 OPS, 0 HR, 0.2 WAR (per FanGraphs)
A lot has been mentioned about Tatis’s begin to the season, because the Padres star nonetheless hasn’t homered by practically two months. Of the 63 gamers to report no less than 200 plate appearances, Tatis is the one participant who has not homered. It’s nearly onerous to wrap your head round, on condition that Tatis entered the season with 152 profession residence runs throughout six MLB seasons and hit no less than 21 residence runs in 4 straight years.
MLB.com’s Mike Petriello examined Tatis’s weird season earlier this month and most of these factors stay the identical. The gist of it’s Tatis is hitting the ball as onerous as ever — his 55.6 % hard-hit charge ranks within the 97th percentile of MLB — however the varieties of batted balls he’s getting are suboptimal. A meager 6.8 % of his batted balls have been pulled within the air, fourth-lowest amongst hitters with 100 batted balls and properly beneath his 14.9 % profession clip.
In layman’s phrases, Tatis is now placing his onerous contact into optimum areas (his 53.4 % ground-ball charge is a profession excessive by a cushty margin). As Petriello documented, a few of this may very well be timing or it may very well be his extra closed-off stance. On condition that he’s nonetheless solely 27 and was a drive as just lately as final 12 months, there’s ample purpose to imagine he’ll flip issues round.
Jackson Merrill2026 numbers: .598 OPS, 4 HR, 0.3 WAR
Whereas there are ample causes to stay optimistic about Tatis, there have been some regarding traits for Merrill in 2026. The 23-year-old has a .598 OPS, properly beneath his profession .772 mark. Underneath the hood, Merrill has been struggling when it comes to each high quality and amount of contact. Making issues worse is Merrill left early from Wednesday’s collection finale towards the Dodgers with a again harm after attempting to rob a Shohei Ohtani residence run.
Whereas Merrill is boasting a career-best 46.5 % hard-hit charge, his barrel charge is down from 13.0 % in 2025 to 9.4 % this season. That’s largely tied to extra balls on the bottom as his 44.2 % ground-ball charge is a profession low. Merrill can also be whiffing on a profession excessive 28.0 % of his swings, which has led to a 25.1 % strikeout charge.
After posting an .826 OPS with 24 residence runs and ending second in NL Rookie of the 12 months voting in 2024, Merrill has seen his numbers dip in consecutive years. Merrill isn’t as dangerous as his 2026 numbers point out (his anticipated numbers say he’s been a bit unfortunate), however he’s additionally in want of some adjustment at this stage of his profession. Exterior of Tatis, Merrill may be the largest X-factor for the Padres this season.
Manny Machado2026 numbers: .617 OPS, 7 HR, 0.3 WAR
Machado has been such a constant drive throughout his profession that it’s nearly been anticipated to see him put up 25-plus residence runs and three+ WAR seasons on an annual foundation. For the primary time in his profession, possibly there’s a realization that he’s coming into his decline section, which isn’t terribly shocking for a 33-year-old enjoying in his fifteenth MLB season.
Machado has essentially the most residence runs (seven) of this trio of Padres and the best OPS (.617) however the different two gamers are on the correct aspect of 30. Machado’s strikeout charge is at a career-high 22.4 % charge, simply the second time it’s crossed 20 % in his profession. The contact high quality has suffered, too, as Machado is working a 6.3 % barrel charge, his lowest determine within the Statcast period and practically half of his 10.9 % clip since 2015.
Along with his protection principally hovering round common today, Machado can’t afford for his bat to be this far beneath his profession norms. It’d be unwise to doubt Machado after his observe report, although, and he’ll be a captivating participant to watch the remainder of the 12 months.
