Tour de France Mountains Competition Contenders

You realize it’s July whenever you see the polka dot jersey. He’s a take a look at the riders who may be sporting it quickly.

The mathsPoints are awarded as follows:

hors catégorie (6 in whole): 20-15-12-10-8-6-4-2 factors
Class 1 climbs (13): 10-8-6-4-2-1 factors
Class 2 (11) 5-3-2-1 factors
Class 3 (21): 2-1 factors
Class 4 (18): 1 level

That is totally different to current years the place the best climb of the race acquired double factors, eg the Galibier or Loze noticed 40-30-24 factors and so forth to the primary over. Earlier than that the ultimate HC climb of the day acquired double factors. None of this occurs in 2026, all HC climbs are equal.

The routeThe competitors ought to be vigorous from the beginning as the primary week is a high-scoring one in comparison with the norm as there are many climbs, together with the Class 1 climb of the Collada de Toses on Stage 3 and the HC-rated Tourmalet on Stage 6 and this manner whoever has the jersey on the finish of the primary week gained’t have it by chance due to a breakaway.

Stage 20 will settle issues and is illustrative of a number of levels the place the breakaway can go clear and rating factors even when they face being reeled in earlier than the end.

Tips on how to win?There are two routes to the polka dot jersey. One is unintended the place the GC contenders choose it up by advantage of being on the assault within the mountains for stage wins and time with out actually making it a precedence, we’ve seen Tadej Pogačar (2020, 2021, 2025) and Jonas Vingegaard win the competitors this manner (2022), sometimes successful a mountain stage late within the third week to take over the lead.

The opposite is the deliberate mountain raid from a climber who will go within the breakaway within the mountains and rating on the primary climbs and hope the transfer sticks to contest the stage but when not they will strive a raid once more and rack up factors. We’ve seen Giulio Ciccone (2023) and Richard Carapaz (2024) win the competitors this manner.

The factors system for 2026 tilts issues extra in the direction of the latter state of affairs, together with as many HC-rated climbs en route as there are on the stage end. So rating massive on HC climbs early in a stage and right here and there elsewhere within the race and a rider may have a cushion on Pogačar. Notice “tilt” and the conditional tense, if Pogačar wakes up eager to win a stage and mow down the breakaway it’ll occur.

ContendersLenny Martinez (Bahrain) wore the jersey final 12 months and has improved since. This 12 months the purpose has been to strive using for GC in week-long stage races however extra in boring phrases of course of, of steadiness and training the logistics required. However now on the Tour he’s acquired extra freedom to experience for himself, he desires a stage win or the polka dots and might in all probability handle each. He’s been an erratic rider prior to now however he’s nonetheless a number of days wanting turning 23 however is now rounding out.

Richard Carapaz (EF Schooling-Easypost) gained in 2024 and says he’s in nice form now. His pre-Tour quote provides “the overall classification will rely closely on how the race circumstances unfold. I need to go after stage wins and will attempt to repeat successful the mountains jersey” which might be code for saying he is aware of he can’t match Pogačar and Vingegaard so except he infiltrates a transfer and takes time, it’ll be stage wins and polka dots like in 2024. He’ll just like the third week particularly. Carapaz is illustrative as a result of a rider of his stature nonetheless has to select objectives.

You by no means know what you’ll get with Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5) and he’d in all probability like a stage win and a few good end on GC however these objectives threat being in opposition. He’s well-suited to the duty of fetching the polka dots, punchy atop a mountain and artful however does he need it?

Think about Mikel Landa within the drops as he crests a excessive mountain move. Solely the cult of landismo is banished for July as he’s not been chosen by Soudal-Quickstep. As an alternative his apprentice can strive. One motive Valentin Paret-Peintre left Decathlon was he was getting bored with the group’s deal with sports activities science and he wished extra freedom to coach as he desires and likewise to be taught from Landa. “VPP” is a contender for the jersey and a canny rider however his ultralight construct makes sprinting for factors tougher towards beefier rivals.

Netcompany-Ineos don’t include any apparent GC leaders. In the event that they’re after different types of success then this competitors must curiosity them. Thymen Arensman gained two levels final and was fourth within the competitors however enhance, as we noticed on the Giro he can climb effectively however not make darting accelerations. Kévin Vauquelin is quicker and suited to this competitors however will he strive for GC first and so not rating on among the earlier days within the mountains?

If the Aura Tour was apply for the Tour then Clément Braz Afonso (Groupama-FDJ) will get a point out for successful the mountains competitors there however makes his Tour debut and this time successful means scaling greater mountains extra typically, it’s arduous to see him getting the higher of Martinez and Carapaz. Tenth within the Tour final 12 months, Jordan Jegat (TotalEnergies) has missed out on rather a lot with a knee harm – at instances unable to pedal on one leg, as soon as diminished to strolling uphill to his dwelling as a result of he couldn’t pedal – however now seems absolutely recovered and starting to look constant too. He’ll have house to maneuver however successful the jersey is a tricky ask. Einer Rubio (Movistar) is within the pure climber bracket and has a Lenny Martinez-like craftiness. Michael Storer (Tudor) can climb effectively at the most effective of instances and perhaps wants some stars to align but when they do on the precise day he’s a contender too. Harald Tejada (XDS-Astana) is having an excellent season.

Tadej Pogačar (UAE) particularly, and Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-LAB) get mentions. The central case is that as GC contenders they stand gather the jersey on the way in which to one thing greater; however there’s additionally the comfort angle the place if one is sapped from the Giro or the opposite is wanting type then stage wins and the mountains competitors can compensate though it’s arduous to see Pogačar folding and settling for polka dots.

Richard Carapaz, Lenny Martinez