SAN FRANCISCO — What do LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry have in frequent?
Many issues, because it seems: Corridor of Fame careers. Common-season and NBA Finals MVP trophies. Current NBA championships. An handle west of the Rockies.
And, maybe, yet one more factor: a spot within the 2024 Western Convention Play-In Match.
My journey to the Bay Space this previous week, in addition to the continued struggles of the Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns, underscored a nagging feeling I’ve had many of the season: Even though these three gamers stay at an All-Star degree (on the very least), their respective groups simply aren’t that good. That will be an alarming flip of occasions — the Suns, Lakers and Warriors have received eight of the previous 9 Western Convention crowns, and even final season, every made the second spherical — however this can be the start of the top for that run.
The Warriors dropped two dwelling video games on my go to, being outclassed comparatively simply by a Jimmy Butler-less Miami Warmth aspect and the Kyrie Irving-less Dallas Mavericks. Sure, Golden State was lacking Draymond Inexperienced as a result of his suspension, however the huge image is that the Warriors are 15-17 heading into Tuesday’s sport towards the Orlando Magic. Proper now, they’d be within the draft lottery, standing eleventh within the West. (Fascinating subplot: The West has 11 average-to-good groups and solely 10 spots. Anyone goes to be very upset on April 14.)
You may make arguments that the Warriors’ underlying numbers aren’t fairly this dangerous. They’ve performed the league’s most tough schedule to date, in response to Basketball-Reference, and Inexperienced has solely been on the court docket for 15 of their 32 video games getting into Tuesday. Then again, Curry has been current for 30 of them, placing him on tempo for his healthiest season since 2016-17, and that also hasn’t moved the needle.
The Warriors modified beginning lineups in each video games of my go to, which underscored what could be a bigger systemic difficulty: The gamers they’re hoping will likely be good and the gamers who’ve truly been good will not be the identical individuals. Regardless of the spectacular play of children Brandin Podziemski (extra on him beneath) and Moses Moody, the Warriors are so all-in on the notion that Klay Thompson, Kevon Looney and Andrew Wiggins can rediscover their championship-level play of two seasons in the past that it has crowded out the extra productive youngsters.
One yearns to see what Curry and Inexperienced would possibly appear like with Podz, Moody and Jonathan Kuminga because the three surrounding starters, however we nonetheless appear a great distance from that endgame. Thompson has began each sport, and the newest lineup change was to place 38-year-old Chris Paul within the first group. (Enjoyable CP3 aspect be aware in an in any other case sad-trombone season for the Level Mortal: He might have found the catch-and-shoot 3 this weekend. He took 9 triples on Saturday towards Dallas — he’s solely tried 10 or extra in a sport twice since leaving Houston in 2019 — and all of them had been both off the catch or one-dribble relocations.)
It’s an identical story in L.A., the place the Lakers are mired at 17-17 regardless of James persevering with to defy the legal guidelines of growing older and Anthony Davis submitting a Defensive Participant of the Yr-worthy marketing campaign of his personal. The 2 have smashed the over on availability, combining to overlook solely three video games to date, but the Lakers appear no higher than a season in the past. Even with James at an sudden 40.9 p.c from 3, L.A., as a workforce, neither shoots 3s typically nor precisely. Regardless of taking part in big lineups, the Lakers are twenty ninth in offensive rebounding.
In the meantime, the Suns had been imagined to be contenders with a three-man core of Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, however Beal has solely performed 9 video games, and the Suns are eighth within the West at 18-15. The underlying knowledge is worse: Phoenix has performed the league’s best schedule to date, and even within the 19 video games Durant and Booker each performed, the workforce is simply 11-8.
Going ahead, with only one month to go till the Feb. 8 commerce deadline, the conundrum is comparable for all three groups: How a lot additional do you push your chips in on a workforce that’s unlikely to be a real contender and should not even make the playoff area?
Kevin Durant drives to the basket as Houston’s Tari Eason defends. (Erik Williams / USA In the present day)
On the one hand, it’s straightforward to speak your self into Jim Carrey-esque “So that you’re telling me there’s an opportunity!” eventualities: The highest two groups within the West, the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, are unproven within the postseason, whereas the defending champion Denver Nuggets are all the time one damage away from catastrophe. And the Lakers, after all, made the convention finals a season in the past after an in-season facelift.
For Phoenix, at the least, the sunk prices are so huge that there’s virtually no level in pursuing any technique aside from persevering with to squeeze what it could from the Durant-Booker tandem. Durant is 35, and the Suns doubtlessly owe their subsequent seven first-round picks to Washington and Brooklyn through trades and swaps. The Suns don’t have loads left to commerce, however nonetheless have expiring cash and second-round picks, and so they’re the one workforce that will profit most from even modest upgrades, particularly at level guard.
For L.A. and Golden State, nonetheless, the waters are murkier. Setting apart the query of whom they could purchase that would really make a distinction, there may be the philosophical difficulty of whether or not that is price doing in any respect. Golden State has two big expiring contracts in these of Paul and Thompson, however may not essentially wish to take again huge future {dollars} if it means one other yr of being each phenomenally costly and phenomenally common. Getting anyone within the three years and $85 million left on Wiggins’ deal after this season can be a greater pathway, however good luck with that.
As for draft capital, the Warriors might seemingly promise two firsts in a commerce, in 2026 and 2028, with applicable inducements in case the 2026 decide can’t convey because of a top-four protected decide going to Portland (through Boston) this season. (Solely in both a catastrophe state of affairs or a hilariously fortunate one would the Warriors decide land within the high 4.)
However what are they getting again that doesn’t nonetheless depart them previous and costly? Is it price including one of many children to a commerce after they’re the one motive to suppose this would possibly get higher, not to mention setting extra future draft capital on fireplace that could be wanted for a late-decade rebuild?
As for the Lakers, they will solely commerce one future first-round decide, in both 2029 or 2030, and are hemmed in by the tax apron as a result of they used their nontaxpayer midlevel exception on Gabe Vincent. Their finest commerce chip is D’Angelo Russell’s quasi-expiring deal (he has a participant choice for $18 million), however he’s additionally the perfect shooter on a workforce that’s starved for extra spacing. Can the injured Vincent or modestly efficient Rui Hachimura (owed $36 million over the subsequent two years) carry something again?
It’s such a dilemma as a result of all three of those groups are doubtlessly lengthy wanders by way of the lottery darkness on the finish of their present famous person eras. Mortgaging the longer term by sending out extra unprotected picks solely worsens the eventual agony.
Then again, we’re speaking about LeBron, Steph and KD. You don’t signal these gamers so you’ll be able to have a pleasant, strong improvement yr and a promising 2029 cap sheet. The clock is ticking on the primes of every; all three are approaching their lowest PER since their first two seasons within the league. No person is aware of what number of extra bites on the apple their groups have, however the reply might very effectively be “one.”
Additionally, as soon as these superstars inevitably decline, roster finish video games might make the out years much less painful for his or her groups. As an example, the Suns might commerce Booker for an offsetting decide haul, and the Lakers might do related with Davis as soon as he turns into commerce eligible subsequent August. In the meantime, the Warriors’ youth cabinet isn’t naked. (They might additionally commerce Curry, in concept, however I doubt we’ll ever see the day.)
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Lastly, the perfect motive to suppose these groups would possibly keep aggressive on the commerce deadline is a fourth workforce that almost made this listing: the LA Clippers. The Clips had been wallowing alongside as one other previous, capped-out workforce centered round a 30-something former Finals MVP, after which the James Harden commerce occurred. After a rocky honeymoon interval, they’re 17-5 of their final 22 video games and have a web ranking that sniffs at actual contender standing. (Additionally they don’t have a clear declare to their very own first-round draft decide till 2030, however let’s not fear about that proper now.)
Regardless of these groups’ early struggles and query marks, and regardless of the very fact they could simply be throwing good cash after dangerous simply to complete seventh as an alternative of eighth, I count on all three to strive leaning even additional into their growing older superstars’ primes. They’re nonetheless massively restricted by the cap and their very own decide conditions, so making a really impactful swap will likely be tough. However the various feels worse: We will’t actually have LeBron, Steph and KD as our featured performers in Play-in Week … proper?
Stat Geekery: How dangerous is workforce No. 362?
Considered one of my adventures in San Francisco final week was stopping by the College of San Francisco to see the primary half of its sport towards Mississippi Valley State. (I needed to bail at halftime to get to the Warriors sport.)
San Francisco has two legit draft sleepers to look at, with 6-8 ahead Jonathan Mogbo being the primary identify for this cycle — he’s ranked sixth amongst mid- and high-major gamers in PER. Give him a 3-point shot, and he’s a younger Robert Covington:
One man wrecking crew 👷 @j_mogbo
USF 26, MVSU 11 | 10:37 – 1st Half#USFDons | #WCChoops pic.twitter.com/UPhY6AKH68
— San Francisco Males’s Basketball (@USFDonsMBB) December 30, 2023
With an elite participant on their aspect and the West Coast Convention in a down yr (usually mighty Gonzaga may not have a single surefire professional), the Dons might simply find yourself profitable the league.
Not that we bought an incredible check for them on my go to. Their opponent Saturday was KenPom’s 362nd-ranked workforce out of 362 in Division I males’s school basketball. Mississippi Valley State graded out fairly a bit worse than the others too, ranking as an eight-point underdog on a impartial flooring even towards workforce No. 361.
You may forgive the Delta Devils for additionally being a bit road-weary. The workforce is 0-13 and has performed zero dwelling video games, as an alternative doing what loads of small colleges do and chasing money ensures from the massive boys. This was their third journey to the West Coast in a month, and so they’ve additionally accepted drubbings from UConn, Oklahoma, Baylor and TCU. They’ve misplaced each sport this season by at the least 29 factors aside from one, an extra time loss at Pacific (KenPom’s workforce No. 343 … and nonetheless a 17-point favourite by the rankings).
On this case, the scores had been virtually useless on. It seemed like we would have a sport for a bit, with the rating 15-11 on the 12-minute mark, after which the floodgates opened: San Francisco led 51-21 by halftime. San Francisco graded out as a 44-point favourite on a impartial flooring; add three factors for home-court benefit within the Dons’ health club, and also you get to 47. The Dons truly received by 50, 92-42.
Issues will seemingly get higher for the Delta Devils, at the least. They play their first dwelling sport this week towards 1-12 Alabama A&M, and the remainder of their convention schedule is far much less daunting than the gauntlet they’ve run the final two months. Apart from, they nonetheless have 15 extra video games earlier than they catch the Pistons.
Rookie of the Week: Brandon Podziemski, SG, Golden State
(Word: This part received’t essentially profile the perfect rookie of the week. Simply the one I’ve been watching.)
Rating one for the draft fashions. Popping out of Santa Clara, Podziemski rated a lot increased in analytics charts than he did in most conventional scouting boards, however the nineteenth decide in June’s draft has already claimed a beginning spot on a workforce with title aspirations, and his relative youth (he received’t flip 21 till February) and talent set make it seemingly he can stick as a rotation-level guard at worst, and maybe one thing rather more.
The most important factor to notice with Podziemski is that (screams from the hilltops for the ten,000th time) rebounding interprets. One of the simplest ways to determine if anyone will board on the subsequent degree isn’t the attention check. It’s the mathematics.
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Podziemski is barely 6-foot-5 and largely performs beneath the rim, however the truth that he led the WCC in rebounding as a sophomore ought to have been taken extra critically. Watch him for a bit, and it’s not arduous to see why: His nostril for the ball is wonderful. His rebound price to date as a professional (12.6 p.c) is that of an influence ahead, not a taking pictures guard; amongst qualifying gamers 6-6 or shorter, solely the Clippers’ Russell Westbrook has grabbed a better price of caroms.
The remainder of his sport appears completely plausible at this degree. Issues about his protection appear to have been overblown, particularly since he’s added a knack for taking fees. He received’t ever be stopper materials, however he nicks 2.0 steals per 100 possessions and has sufficient energy to compete on switches.
Offensively, the most important query is how a lot his sport can scale up. Podziemski shoots 41.7 p.c from 3 and 50.9 p.c on 2s, the latter goosed by a robust in-between sport that features some adventurous hook pictures and long-distance floaters. However he not often attracts fouls (a decrease free-throw price than his teammate Thompson), and there’s a query of how a lot off-the-dribble juice he has. The Warriors don’t essentially want him to be a creator of their current incarnation, however that day is coming; a 16.8 p.c utilization price guard in at the moment’s sport simply isn’t that thrilling.
The excellent news is that a few of his clips trace at a better degree of playmaking he would possibly be capable of entry, with a really feel for live-ball play offsetting a low shot launch and restricted wiggle off the bounce.
TJD SLAM OFF AN ABSOLUTE DIME FROM PODZ 😱😱 pic.twitter.com/3a3tT4i8f8
— Warriors on NBCS (@NBCSWarriors) December 24, 2023
Regardless, Golden State can already begin taking a victory lap for this decide — a comparatively late one used on a younger participant who contributed instantly and nonetheless has some long-term runway. Whereas some project-type gamers drafted later might finally surpass him, none are shut in the intervening time. Podziemski might find yourself making the All-Rookie squad.
Prospect of the Week: Kylan Boswell, 6-2 sophomore, PG, Arizona
(Word: This part received’t essentially profile the perfect prospect of the week. Simply the one I’ve been watching.)
My journey to the Bay additionally introduced me to Berkeley to see Arizona play Cal in a sport that turned out almost as one-sided as my journey at USF. The fourth-ranked Wildcats led 54-26 at halftime and cruised to a 100-81 win. (Arizona would later undergo a mystifying defeat to Stanford on this journey, aided by wildly proficient Stanford 3-point taking pictures.)
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The Wildcats don’t have a single apparent lottery decide, however have a number of gamers who will warrant consideration on this draft cycle and/or future ones. For the needs of the subsequent draft, nonetheless, crucial participant to look at is Boswell. A sophomore who’s the age of a freshman — he received’t flip 19 till April — Boswell profiles as a stout defender regardless of his lack of measurement, with a linebacker’s body and extremely quick fingers. Generously listed at 6-2, Boswell, I think, could have an NBA Scouting Mix measurement of 6-0 in socks.
Boswell’s defensive exercise is the highest motive to imagine in his prospects. He possesses a price of three.4 steals per 100 possessions and the energy to cope with greater gamers in shut quarters.
As an offensive participant, he’s nonetheless a little bit of a piece in progress. Boswell has shot effectively at Arizona to date (40.9 p.c on 3s, 82.8 p.c from the road throughout two seasons) however isn’t a high-volume 3-point shooter and appeared to lose confidence within the Florida Atlantic sport. He lives largely off catch-and-shoots proper now, and whereas his arc and type look good, he had fairly inconsistent outcomes after I watched him pregame in Berkeley. (The benefit to watching a participant’s pregame, particularly for collegians, is that you simply’ll see as many pictures then as you’d in a whole season of sport tape.)
The place Boswell appears to have extra consolation is in taking pictures floaters and quick paint pictures, good golf equipment for a participant of this measurement to have in his bag. Nevertheless, for a small guard, you’d wish to see extra downhill strain on the rim and a bit extra zip as a passer. His turnover price stays stubbornly excessive (17.8 p.c) and echoes an issue he confirmed this summer season as an orchestrator for the USA on the FIBA U19 World Cup.
Sum all the pieces up, and Boswell in all probability grades out as a fringe first-rounder with a spread of No. 25 to No. 45 if we drafted at the moment. In a weak draft, he’ll have an opportunity to maneuver up draft boards with a robust run in convention play, particularly because the Wildcats will seemingly play some high-profile video games in March.
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(Prime photograph of LeBron James and Stephen Curry: Kyle Terada / USA In the present day)
