If you happen to’re Lewis Hamilton, it have to be robust to know simply methods to really feel about your present skilled scenario proper now.
The seven-time world champion stunned the sporting world along with his determination to go away Mercedes for Ferrari in 2025, notably with the timing of the announcement that confirmed the transfer previous to this present season.
And whereas Hamilton has typically not dodged questions on that future transfer to this point this yr, he’s at all times introduced the subject again to Mercedes and his want to finish his massively profitable time there on a excessive. However at this second, that’s trying notably difficult.
Hamilton went by means of a rollercoaster of feelings throughout the race weekend in Suzuka. It was so refreshing to see how optimistic he was heading into the race – joking and laughing in his Thursday media session – and that temper persevering with into qualifying, the place he was remarkably upbeat about seventh place on the grid.
OK, perhaps that’s overstating it a little bit. The grid place itself didn’t excite Hamilton, however he was boosted by how the automotive felt, and the way he was in a position to actually push it in that unbelievable opening sector that each one drivers appear to utterly love attacking in Method 1 equipment.
Plus, the hole to Pink Bull in qualifying was smaller than it had been on the similar venue simply six months earlier. However the identical was true for Ferrari, and Aston Martin, and McLaren. And are available race day, Mercedes was slipping to the again of that pack – partly by means of strategic selection, it have to be mentioned – whereas Ferrari was rising to the entrance of it.
The course at Ferrari seems very clear proper now. Fred Vasseur has bought the workforce working harmoniously, with an understanding of what’s required to enhance itself in all areas. Carlos Sainz factors out that a greater automotive is central to a lot of the impression of progress in different departments too, however then it’s apparent Ferrari is bettering its automotive.
The catalyst for that was recognized because the Dutch Grand Prix final yr, the place Ferrari actually gained an understanding of methods to make a automotive work successfully below the present rules. Since then, each replace and improvement seems to have been in the precise course. As Sainz himself acknowledges, having a extra aggressive and compliant automotive opens up extra strategic choices, and there are optimistic knock-on impacts that translate into higher race outcomes.
That’s a fantastic signal for Hamilton’s future, however the identical actually can’t be mentioned for the workforce he nonetheless has to finish one other 20 races with.
By the top of Sunday’s race, Hamilton’s temper had, understandably, deteriorated markedly. Seventh on the grid turned ninth in on the checkered flag, and Mercedes had positively not maximized its technique; an space the place Ferrari used to face common criticism.
A Dutch journalist making an attempt to follow-up to Hamilton’s race abstract of “It was OK” was maybe too hasty in making an attempt to fill the silence – comprehensible, in his second language – and requested if he was jealous of the Ferraris being forward, or trying ahead to becoming a member of them as a substitute.
Hamilton is making an attempt to take pleasure in his last races at Mercerdes, however the workforce’s struggles to seek out efficiency within the automotive will not be making it straightforward. Mark Sutton/Motorsport Pictures
“Do you will have any higher questions?” and a fast exit after 26 seconds was the polar reverse to the place Hamilton’s demeanor had been simply 24 hours earlier.
And you’ll’t blame him, as a result of for each trace at progress at Mercedes because the begin of 2022, it more and more seems that the workforce nonetheless doesn’t perceive its automotive nicely sufficient to cement these positive factors.
Toto Wolff modified his plans forward of Suzuka after having initially meant to stay in Europe for the race weekend. His attendance was defined as being as a result of him desirous to get a lift from being across the race workforce and serving to with its course at a time when it’s making an attempt new issues.
However after a humbling end result that leaves Mercedes with simply 34 factors from the opening 4 rounds – its second-worst return in its F1 historical past – Wolff was candid in his admission that Mercedes continues to be misplaced in relation to getting a automotive to carry out below these guidelines.
Revealing that exams in Melbourne had confirmed to the workforce that its automotive had large quantities extra downforce in comparison with 2023, but it surely wasn’t translating into efficiency, Wolff insisted that Mercedes is nearer to solutions consequently. But it surely nonetheless doesn’t have them.
“All the things over these two years that we’ve seen factors to there needs to be extra downforce than we consider it’s,” Wolff mentioned. “And now we’ve measured the downforce and it’s there, we’re simply not in a position to extract the lap day out of it that we should always and that simulations present us. And it’s not trivial. I see you taking a look at me like ‘What the hell?!’ Now think about what we predict!”
The combined messages between classes being realized however understanding being lacking are robust to learn. And during the last two-and-a-bit seasons, the sensation could nicely have grown inside Hamilton that these solutions will not be going to be forthcoming quickly sufficient.
Whether or not he strongly believed the distinction between Ferrari’s upward momentum and Mercedes’ decline could be so stark 4 races into the season is one thing solely Hamilton will know, however as his alternative is sought, Wolff seems to concede there might be no fast repair.
“I feel you’ll be able to take a look at it from numerous views. I consider that we’re in a rebuild part, we have to acknowledge that now three years into these rules,” he mentioned. “We’ve bought to do issues otherwise to what we’ve finished previously with out throwing overboard what we consider is goodness in the best way we function.
“And ‘rebuild’ may imply placing a younger driver in there and giving him a possibility with much less strain, or placing a extra skilled driver within the automotive that may assist us dig ourselves out of the present efficiency image.”
Mercedes’ succession planning was at all times one in every of its nice strengths throughout its dominant spell, and it’s a workforce filled with immensely gifted folks and spectacular amenities which have labored out the easiest way to win below earlier rules earlier than.
To put in writing it off utterly could be harmful, however with the likes of Ferrari and even McLaren persevering with to talk confidently concerning the instructions they’re heading in – and backing it up with enhancements on-track – the Mercedes scenario appears to be like ever extra regarding.
With the 2026 guidelines reset looming, except there’s a lightbulb second inside Mercedes’ engineering workforce very quickly, Hamilton may discover himself denied the optimistic end to that partnership he so craves, however much more justified in his determination to hunt a brand new problem.
