Seventy-seven steals? Fifty-six house runs? A 22-game winner on the mound? After the primary half of the 2024 season, which really featured significantly greater than half of the 162-game schedule, loads of MLB stars are on tempo to put up tantalizing counting stats over the complete yr.
However how probably are these gamers to stick with it?
Listed below are the seven most enjoyable on-pace stats from the primary half, ranked by how probably they’re to be achieved. All projections come from FanGraphs.
The Cincinnati speedster has an opportunity to turn into the primary participant to steal 75 or extra bases since José Reyes swiped 78 for the Mets again in 2007. Ronald Acuña Jr. got here shut with 73 steals in his historic 2023 NL MVP season, however De La Cruz’s tempo is even larger after 46 steals in 96 video games earlier than the All-Star break. The rule adjustments launched earlier than the 2023 season, together with greater bases and disengagement limits, have definitely helped, however De La Cruz is on his method to a uncommon season when it comes to steals. He’s been caught 9 instances in 55 makes an attempt to this point, so if he continues to get on base and try steals with out getting caught considerably extra, 75 (or extra) steals is certainly in play.
It’s removed from simple to hit 56 house runs in a season, but it surely’s a testomony to Choose’s manufacturing that he appears a reasonably secure guess to take action. The Yankees slugger set the American League single-season house run report with 62 in 2022 and hit 37 homers in 106 video games final season. On the All-Star break, Choose had 34 homers in 96 video games. Solely two gamers have hit 55 or extra homers since Ryan Howard smashed 58 for the Phillies in 2006 — Choose in 2022 and Giancarlo Stanton (59) in 2017. Choose has been traditionally sizzling after a poor first month of the season and has an actual shot at hitting 56 homers — if no more.
Usually on the high of a stacked Orioles lineup, Henderson has been scoring with ease all season lengthy. He’s already scored an MLB-high 78 runs, with 28 of these approaching the shortstop’s own residence runs. He might be the fourth participant previously three seasons to high 130 runs, becoming a member of Acuña (149) and Freddie Freeman (131) in 2023 and Choose (133) in 2022. Henderson is on tempo for 132 runs, which might be essentially the most by an Oriole since Roberto Alomar hit that actual mark again in 1996. With the younger shortstop’s expertise and the expert hitters behind him, it appears eminently cheap.
No pitcher has saved greater than 50 video games since Edwin Díaz recorded 57 saves (tied for second most in AL/NL historical past) again in 2018 with the Mariners. Helsley has a superb shot to alter that, having saved 32 of the Cardinals’ 50 wins previous to the All-Star break. The hard-throwing righty reliever has a 2.36 ERA and 48 strikeouts in his 42 innings pitched in 2024. Workload might be a priority: Helsley has by no means thrown greater than 64 2/3 innings in a single season, and he’ll probably should surpass that mark to hit his on-pace projection of 54 saves. In that case, he could be only one off the Nationwide League report of 55, shared by John Smoltz (2002) and Eric Gagne (2003).
The RBI mark for which Ramírez is at present on tempo isn’t something unusual: Choose and Pete Alonso every drove in precisely 131 runs in 2022, and Matt Olson had 139 RBIs final yr. Ramírez drove in a career-high 126 runs in 2022, and his 77 RBIs this season put him on tempo for 131 (tied with Marcell Ozuna for second, behind Choose at 141). Batting third (generally second) behind MLB batting common chief Steven Kwan has definitely helped the Guardians star drive in runs, and J-Ram can be on tempo for a career-high-tying 39 house runs. Ramírez has a powerful likelihood to be the primary Cleveland hitter with 130 or extra RBIs since Juan Gonzalez had 140 in 2001.
Crochet led MLB with 150 strikeouts within the season’s first half, reaching that mark in simply 107 1/3 innings. Innings will most likely be the most important problem for Crochet — who had by no means began an MLB sport earlier than Opening Day 2024 — in reaching his on-pace projection of 248 strikeouts. Spencer Strider (281 strikeouts) in 2023 and Gerrit Cole (257) in 2022 each beat that quantity, as did Robbie Ray in 2021 and 6 totally different pitchers in 2019. Strider, Cole and Ray have all been considerably affected by accidents this season, as have many different high-strikeout starters, so Crochet might be the one pitcher to succeed in 250 Okay’s this season.
With relievers pitching extra innings than ever, wins have gone out of style in recent times. There has solely been one 20-game winner in every of the previous three seasons, and the final pitcher to win 22 video games — Sale’s present tempo — was Rick Porcello with the Purple Sox in 2016. Sale has an MLB-best 13 wins in his first 20 begins this season, however he’s already thrown extra innings in 2024 than he has in any season since 2019. Even when his well being holds up, the Braves lefty probably gained’t proceed to obtain a mean of 6.3 runs of assist per sport — essentially the most amongst all certified pitchers.
