We’re bringing you some overreactions and the highest data-driven Week 2 fantasy soccer projections out there utilizing a number of of our AI-powered fashions.
Essentially the most enjoyable time in the complete NFL calendar may simply be the couple days between Monday Evening Soccer in Week 1 and Thursday Evening Soccer in Week 2.
Why? As a result of you’ll be able to persuade your self of just about something. As a result of the character of small, one-game samples is to overreact to all the things you see.
And who doesn’t love doing that?
So, within the spirit of enjoyable, and together with the remainder of the soccer world, listed here are 4 fantasy soccer overreactions that additionally possibly, simply possibly, have the tiniest trace of being a prediction.
They’re removed from positive issues, however we’re going to make the case why every of those might probably come true primarily based on what we noticed in Week 1.
Overreaction No. 1: Cooper Kupp is about to have a greater season than his 2021 season, when he received the triple crown.
In case you’ve been following our fantasy protection over the past 4 years, you’ll know that Cooper Kupp has been an absolute favourite of the mannequin. Our mannequin has been constantly larger on him than the business for years, each season lengthy, and even weekly (he’s our WR2 this week and the business’s WR4).
Bu there’s two issues that you must learn about this overreaction. First, this virtually definitely isn’t going to occur. Triple crowns – main the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns – are exceedingly uncommon.
Kupp in 2021, Sterling Sharpe in 1992 (Sharpe could have a case as one of the best participant in NFL historical past to not be within the Professional Soccer Corridor of Fame), and Jerry Rice in 1990 are the one gamers to win outright triple crowns since 1960.
Second, he completely blew everybody out of the water in receptions (145) and receiving yards (1,947) that season and he did it on the energy of a league-high 191 targets – 22 greater than the subsequent closest participant.
what he didn’t try this season? Have a single sport with greater than 15 targets or any sport with greater than 13 receptions. In the meantime, final Sunday evening in opposition to the Detroit Lions, Kupp had 14 receptions and an totally ridiculous 21 targets.
To place that in perspective, New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence solely had 21 go makes an attempt of their Week 1 performances.
That’s 21, to all their teammates.
The opposite factor that occurred in 2021? Robert Woods received harm midseason and didn’t play after Week 9. Sound acquainted? Puka Nacua is already on the IR for the Los Angeles Rams and Matthew Stafford has already proven that he has no hassle specializing in one receiver for a sport or season (see, Kupp or earlier than him, Calvin Johnson).
If he stays wholesome, Kupp will threaten Michael Thomas’ single-season receptions file and a 2,000-yard season. And hopefully, he’ll do it whereas in your fantasy staff.
Overreaction No. 2: Jayden Daniels goes to complete the season as a top-five fantasy quarterback.
Speeding quarterbacks are the final word fantasy soccer cheat code. Daniels’ Week 1 debut for the Washington Commanders was advantageous. He completed with 184 passing yards, no passing touchdowns and no interceptions. He additionally completed the week because the QB3.
How? How a few dashing line of 16-88-2? That’s 20.8 fantasy factors accrued on the bottom alone. The wager right here is that the Commanders can be trailing so much this season, similar to they have been final week in opposition to Baker Mayfield (QB2 on the week) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which is conducive to Daniels dropping again within the passing sport, going through a softer protection from the protection, and scrambling far and wide.
He received’t rating two dashing touchdowns each week, however 10 fantasy factors per sport on the bottom appears greater than cheap. Final 12 months’s QB5 averaged 19.4 factors per sport. Can Daniels common 10 factors via the air and on the bottom?
If Week 1 is any indication, you need to attempt to commerce for him earlier than he blossoms into an elite QB choice every week.
Overreaction No. 3: This was presupposed to be a renaissance 12 months for tight ends. As an alternative, it’ll be the worst tight finish 12 months in over a decade.
Not less than three tight ends have scored 200 PPR factors going again to 2013 apart from within the wacky 2020 Covid season. It’s been finished 45 occasions since 2013. Principally, 4 tight ends per season cross that 200-point threshold.
To attain 200 factors, that you must common only a hair below 12 factors per sport. Need to guess what number of tight ends hit that mark in Week 1? The proper reply is 2. These two gamers? The second tight finish for the Baltimore Ravens (sure, Isaiah Possible is admittedly good, however did any fantasy managers begin him in Week 1?), and the third tight finish for the New Orleans Saints – Foster Moreau.
The highest-five tight ends in common draft place (ADP) coming into this season have been the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs’ Travis Kelce, Detroit Lions’ Sam LaPorta, Ravens’ Mark Andrews, Arizona Cardinals’ Trey McBride and Buffalo Payments’ Dalton Kincaid. These 5 in Week 1 mixed – COMBINED – for 15 catches, 134 receiving yards and 0 touchdowns.
Kelce has brazenly admitted he coasts within the common season, doing what he can to remain wholesome till the playoffs. LaPorta is at greatest the second, at worst the fourth, receiving choice in an offense that’s constructed on operating the ball. Andrews was usurped by Possible. McBride has three profession video games with greater than 90 receiving yards and he has 4 whole touchdowns. Kincaid? He’s not even listed because the beginning tight finish on his personal staff, that might be Dawson Knox.
In a phrase… yikes. Let’s hope issues get higher, however Week 1 was not nice for any fantasy supervisor on the tight finish place. Except you began Possible, after all.
Overreaction No. 4: The Dallas Cowboys protection will as soon as once more end because the league’s prime fantasy protection.
This shouldn’t be an overreaction. In reality, the Cowboys ending as a top-two unit was considered one of our overreactions from Week 1 final season, they usually went forward and completed the 12 months as the highest fantasy protection. It was their third straight 12 months as a top-two protection.
The case is straightforward. They’ve an elite participant in Micah Parsons that spearheads all the things, an offense that scores numerous factors and places the protection in place to assault the quarterback, and gamers on the backend that aggressively hunt the ball.
Because the begin of the 2021 season, the Cowboys lead the NFL in interceptions (61 – seven greater than the subsequent closest staff), interceptions returned for a landing (10), sacks (147 – tied with the Miami Dolphins) and compelled fumbles (48). The Cowboys in Week 1? Six sacks, two interceptions, a compelled fumble, and for good measure, a punt return for a landing.
That’ll do.
Bonus Overreaction: That throw from Anthony Richardson is the craziest throw in NFL historical past. I imply, cmon!
Week 2 Yays
Word: We’re evaluating our rankings to the knowledgeable consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Execs. These rankings replace all through the week (we pulled these numbers from Wednesday). As soon as once more, we’re utilizing PPR until famous in any other case.
Justin Fields, QB (PIT) vs DEN (ECR: 16, Our Rank: QB8, Projected Factors: 18.23)
Every part we stated for Daniels in our overreaction column applies on to Fields. Nobody will confuse Fields for being an knowledgeable passer, however that hasn’t mattered one bit relating to his fantasy viability.
Fields performed 28 video games from 2022-23. He averaged 19.5 fantasy factors per sport throughout that stretch. Right here’s the complete listing of quarterbacks to outscore Fields on a per-game foundation over the past two seasons: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts.
Now beginning his second straight sport for the Pittsburgh Steelers, Fields is second in our mannequin’s projected dashing yards by a quarterback. Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith simply had 30 dashing yards and a landing in opposition to the Denver Broncos in Week 1. Fields has an amazing probability of bettering these numbers.
He’s a top-10 QB this week for the mannequin.
De’Von Achane, RB (MIA) vs BUF (ECR: 12, Our Rank: RB3, PP: 20.57)
There may not be a extra thrilling participant within the NFL than Achane. When he will get the ball, it feels as if he’s one missed sort out away from scoring a landing.
He averaged a preposterous 7.8 yards per carry in 2023, which if he had sufficient rushes to qualify, would have been solely the second participant this century to common greater than 6.3 yards per carry.
That’s what made his Week 1 efficiency so thrilling. He was terrible on the bottom. Solely 24 dashing yards on 10 carries was by far his most inefficient efficiency operating the ball in his younger profession. However he scored a landing, and most significantly, he had seven receptions for 76 yards. If that could be a signal of his passing sport contributions to come back, mixed together with his standing as the highest canine within the Miami Dolphins backfield, Achane is a possible fantasy game-breaker.
Raheem Mostert has already been dominated out this week. Achane can also be coping with an ankle harm that makes his standing for Thursday evening’s sport questionable, however it looks as if he’s going to play, and if he does, he’s an elite choice.
Jordan Mason, RB (SF) vs MIN (ECR: 25, Our Rank: RB4, PP: 19.03)
Final 12 months, Puka Nacua had 15 targets in Week 1 and whereas most fantasy managers have been excited so as to add him, nobody thought his efficiency can be sustainable.
He responded with 20 targets, 15 receptions and 147 receiving yards in Week 2, properly on his option to ending the season because the WR4.
Why can we convey that up? Don’t be afraid to let what you see in Week 1 dictate what you do in Week 2. Mason had the second-most carries (28) of any participant in Week 1. He had the second most dashing yards (147).
Oh, and the opposite two operating backs on the San Francisco 49ers mixed for zero carries.
With Christian McCaffrey more likely to be sidelined once more this week in opposition to the Minnesota Vikings, Mason is in line to obtain a big quantity of labor in a rushing-friendly Kyle Shanahan offense.
It’s best to begin him with confidence.
Demarcus Robinson, WR (LAR) vs ARI (ECR: 50, Our Rank: WR26, PP: 12.04)
Robinson is a well-traveled veteran, having the most efficient stretch of play in his profession. In his final six common season video games, he’s averaging 4.2 receptions and 60.2 receiving yards and has scored 4 touchdowns throughout that stretch.
With Nacua on the IR for at the very least 4 weeks, it isn’t simply Kupp which may profit. From Weeks 13 to 17 final week (earlier than sitting out in Week 18 because the Rams rested most of their regulars), Robinson was quietly the WR12, averaging 15.4 PPR factors per sport.
He doesn’t must do any greater than that to considerably outperform his ECR and the mannequin is assured that he’ll just do that.
Particularly in deeper leagues, Robinson is a robust Flex play. He may even nonetheless be out there to select up on the waiver wire as he’s nonetheless solely rostered in 21% of Yahoo leagues.
Week 2 Nays
Jared Goff, QB (DET) vs TB (ECR: 9, Our Rank: QB15: PP: 15.89)
In case you’re sensing a theme because it pertains to quarterbacks, you’d be appropriate. Speeding is paramount to success on the place. Nicely, in 49 profession video games with the Lions, Goff has precisely one sport with greater than 15 dashing yards and solely two dashing touchdowns.
In the meantime, for the reason that begin of the 2023 season, the Lions have solely performed one sport wherein they’ve rushed the ball fewer than 22 occasions. On common, it’s 30 occasions per sport.
Goff is sixth in projected completions and eighth in projected passing touchdowns. He’s fifth in fewest projected interceptions.
The mannequin expects Goff to have a stable sport, however with none dashing, he’s merely a QB2 versus a low-end QB1.
Derrick Henry, RB (BAL) vs LV (ECR: 10, Our Rank: RB19, PP: 14.83)
There was a lot widespread optimism that the wedding between Henry and the Baltimore Ravens might produce another elite RB1-type season from Henry that the weaknesses have been straightforward to miss. And so they all got here true in Week 1.
Actually, simply two predominant weaknesses. For starters, this offense orbits round Lamar Jackson. When Lamar has the ball in his fingers, good issues occur for the Ravens. And in Week 1, he had 57 whole alternatives (41 passes, 16 rushes). Henry, alternatively, had simply 13 alternatives.
Which brings us to the second weak spot. Each considered one of his touches was a dashing try. Justice Hill completed the sport with six receptions. Henry did get two targets, however didn’t convert both of them right into a reception.
All of which suggests, that regardless of scoring a landing in Week 1, Henry completed with a pedestrian 10.6 PPR factors – good for a end because the RB31. When you have him, it’ll be robust to not play him, however your expectations must be tempered.
He’s extra of an RB2 till he both receives a couple of extra passing sport alternatives or his quantity of carries considerably will increase.
Jaylen Waddle, WR (MIA) vs BUF (ECR: 11, Our Rank: WR25, PP: 12.13)
If Kupp has been a mannequin favourite over time, Waddle falls into the kind of receiver class that the mannequin has all the time struggled with. Gamers who’re so reliant on huge performs to hold their fantasy worth are robust to rank and Waddle is simply that.
The excellent news for Waddle’s fantasy managers is that he delivered that play in Week 1. His 63-yard reception was the fourth longest of the week and it contributed to his 109-yard day.
The dangerous information? If he doesn’t come down with that play this week in opposition to the Payments, he may produce a day that appears so much like 4 receptions for 46 yards, which might have been his stat line in Week 1 with out that single play.
By the way in which, that hypothetical stat line I simply tossed out simply occurs to be the precise sport that Waddle produced final 12 months in opposition to the Payments in Week 4.
In an offense wherein he’s third within the pecking order behind Tyreek Hill and Achane, there’s an excessive amount of uncertainty for the mannequin to fee Waddle as a borderline WR1.
Chris Olave, WR (NO) vs DAL (ECR: 22, Our Rank: WR30, PP: 11.75)
The New Orleans Saints scored 47 factors in Week 1. That could be a dream for fantasy managers.
It stands to motive that if an offense scores that many factors, its greatest gamers should be prominently concerned. As an alternative, 5 Saints gamers had extra receiving yards than Olave final week.
Sadly for Saints followers, and Olave’s fantasy managers, they aren’t enjoying the Carolina Panthers once more this week. They’re enjoying the aforementioned Cowboys protection and with Trevon Diggs anticipated to line up in opposition to Olave fairly a bit, one other sluggish day could possibly be in retailer for the previous Ohio State star.
The mannequin views him as merely a Flex play this week.
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