We stay up for Thursday’s UEFA Champions League recreation at Gewiss Stadium with our Atalanta vs Arsenal prediction and preview. Can the Gunners begin with victory in Bergamo?
Atalanta vs Arsenal Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer has Arsenal because the slender favourites for this conflict, with the guests successful 39.2% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Arsenal have misplaced their final three away video games on this competitors in Italy.
Bukayo Saka was concerned in eight objectives in 9 Champions League appearances in 2023-24 (4 objectives, 4 assists), probably the most by an Englishman of their debut season.
Arsenal head to Bergamo on Thursday for his or her Champions League opener in opposition to Atalanta recent off the again of an important Premier League victory on the weekend.
Mikel Arteta’s facet begin the restructured competitors on the highway, buoyed with confidence after Sunday’s hard-fought 1-0 victory away to fierce rivals Tottenham.
Gabriel Magalhães headed dwelling the second-half winner at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, sending Arsenal on their travels with a powerful victory that reinstated their early season title credentials.
Arteta’s males reached the quarter-finals of the Champions League final time period, although a unique problem awaits in 2024-25 with groups enjoying eight different sides – 4 dwelling and 4 away – as all 36 golf equipment battle in a single league desk for the group stage.
Heading into UEFA’s revamped format, Arsenal have gained their opening match in every of their final six main European campaigns (5 within the UEFA Europa League and final season’s Champions League).
The final facet to beat Arsenal of their first recreation was Dinamo Zagreb within the 2015-16 Champions League, although final season’s Europa League winners will fancy their possibilities at dwelling of their curtain-raiser.
A 3-0 victory in final marketing campaign’s Europa League ultimate in opposition to Bayer Leverkusen was Atalanta head coach Gian Piero Gasperini’s fiftieth recreation in control of the membership in main European competitors (excluding qualifiers). The veteran boss has gained just below half of these (48%), with 24 victories (D14 L12).
Ademola Lookman can be one to be careful for, having scored 5 instances in his ultimate three Europa League begins final season – together with a hat-trick within the showpiece in opposition to Leverkusen. He additionally scored the winner this previous weekend as Atalanta overcame Fiorentina 3-2.
Lookman’s by no means scored in 4 prior appearances in opposition to Arsenal, nonetheless, whereas his solely Champions League look was in October 2019 for RB Leipzig in opposition to Zenit.
Objectives might be on the playing cards, too, given Atalanta’s final 4 video games on this competitors – all within the 2021-22 group stage – noticed each groups rating two or extra instances every (D2 L2). Having stated that, in the complete historical past of the European Cup, no facet has ever each scored and conceded 2+ objectives in 5 consecutive matches.
From 23 Champions League matches general for the Serie A facet, their video games have averaged 3.6 objectives per recreation (40 for, 43 in opposition to), the second-most of any workforce to function 20+ instances within the competitors, behind Viktoria Plzen (3.8 per recreation).
Including Arsenal’s scoring file in Europe to the equation, an thrilling goal-laden encounter might await at Gewiss Stadium. Solely Atlético Madrid (+6.16) overperformed their anticipated objectives (xG) complete by a better determine than Arsenal’s +5.49 in final season’s Champions League (19 objectives from 13.51 xG).
Arteta’s males additionally posted the third-highest shot conversion charge within the competitors final time period (15.7%), behind solely Manchester United (16.9%) and Atlético (16.8%), suggesting Gasperini should be cautious of Arsenal’s lethal ending, somewhat than the standard of possibilities they create.
Raheem Sterling, launched from the bench in opposition to Tottenham final outing, may make his Champions League debut for Arsenal right here and would turn out to be the primary participant in European Cup historical past to play for 4 completely different English groups.
Having beforehand performed for Liverpool, Manchester Metropolis and Chelsea, Sterling would surpass David Batty (Leeds, Blackburn, Newcastle), Yossi Benayoun (Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea), William Gallas (Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs) and Kolo Touré (Arsenal, Man Metropolis, Liverpool) as gamers to play for 3 English golf equipment in Europe’s prime competitors.
Although Sterling might have to attend for his likelihood from the beginning, Arteta will definitely look as soon as extra to Bukayo Saka, who was concerned in eight objectives in 9 Champions League outings final time period.
His 4 objectives and 4 assists marked probably the most direct purpose involvements by an Englishman of their debut season within the competitors, breaking the file set by Lee Bowyer for Leeds in 2000-01 (6 objectives, 1 help).
Atalanta vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
A revamped competitors brings recent conferences aplenty, with this the primary time Atalanta and Arsenal have ever competed in opposition to one another.
Arteta’s away facet would be the fifth English workforce Atalanta have met in main European competitors, after Everton (W2), Man Metropolis (D1 L1), Liverpool (W2 L2) and Man Utd (D1 L1).
Nevertheless, Arsenal have misplaced their final three away Champions League video games in Italy, struggling defeats in opposition to Roma (1-0 in 2009), Milan (4-0 in 2012) and Napoli (2-0 in 2013).
The Napoli loss was Arsenal’s final such journey to Italy, nonetheless, with Arteta’s new-look Gunners aiming to atone for earlier failures on their subsequent quest for European success.
Opta Energy Rankings
The Opta Energy Rankings are a world workforce rating system that assigns a capability rating to over 13,000 home soccer groups on a scale between zero and 100, the place zero is the worst-ranked workforce on this planet and 100 is one of the best workforce on this planet.
Forward of kick-off, right here is the Opta Energy Rating for either side.
Atalanta vs Arsenal Prediction
The Opta supercomputer backed Arsenal because the slight favourites on Thursday – the guests triumphed in 39.2% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Gasperini’s males had been victorious in 34.8% of the identical data-led sims, with the draw predicted in 25.9% of eventualities.
In Opta’s match predictions, Arsenal are the fourth favourites to win the revamped Champions League, with their 6.3% likelihood behind Inter (10.9%), Actual Madrid (18.2%) and Manchester Metropolis (25.3%).
Atalanta, in the meantime, have a wholesome 62.9% chance of escaping the group stage, although only a 28.8% hope of reaching the quarter-finals in Opta’s match simulations.
Atalanta vs Arsenal UCL Squads
Atalanta: Rui Patrício, Marco Carnesecchi, Francesco Rossi, Rafael Tolói, Odilon Kossounou, Isak Hien, Ben Godfrey, Raoul Bellanova, Berat Djimsiti, Matteo Ruggeri, Sead Kolašinac, Davide Zappacosta, Juan Cuadrado, Mario Pašalić, Éderson, Marten de Roon, Lazar Samardzic, Marco Brescianini, Nicolò Zaniolo, Ademola Lookman, Charles De Ketelaere, Mateo Retegui, Vanja Vlahović.
Head Coach: Gian Piero Gasperini
Arsenal: David Raya, Neto, Tommy Setford, William Saliba, Kieran Tierney, Ben White, Gabriel, Jurriën Timber, Jakub Kiwior, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Riccardo Calafiori, Thomas Partey, Martin Ødegaard, Leandro Trossard, Jorginho, Mikel Merino, Kai Havertz, Raheem Sterling, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli.
Head Coach: Mikel Arteta
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