Again in March, the Dodgers and Padres kicked off the 2024 Main League season towards each other in South Korea, splitting a pair of video games. Six months and 310 complete video games later, they’ll face off for 3 extra in Los Angeles starting Tuesday, with the NL West title up for grabs. Regardless of being three video games behind the Dodgers, the Padres are totally answerable for their very own future, provided that they took seven of the earlier 10 conferences this season and can thus maintain the tiebreaker it doesn’t matter what occurs.
It’s precisely the type of late-season race between the 2 rivals we anticipated approach again after they confronted each other in Seoul. Isn’t it?
Truly, no. These had been the expectations again in 2021, when San Diego acquired Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Ha-Seong Kim, and we puzzled earlier than the season if it might be among the finest divisional races of all time. It was – however not for the Padres, who completed 28 video games out because the 107-win Giants and 106-win Dodgers battled till the ultimate day.
These had been the in-season expectations, maybe, in 2022, when the Padres made the most important splashes on the Deadline by buying and selling for Juan Soto, Josh Hader and Josh Bell – after which promptly bought swept by the Dodgers, being outscored 20-4, ultimately ending 22 video games out of first. (They’d get their revenge in October.)
These had been undoubtedly the expectations as soon as once more again in 2023, when San Diego, coming off a shock journey to the NLCS the earlier yr, tried for Aaron Choose and Trea Turner earlier than buying Xander Bogaerts, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, all whereas anticipating full seasons from Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr., resulting in a number of the highest expectations in staff historical past. It by no means actually got here collectively, largely resulting from wildly unhealthy extra-innings luck, because the staff completed 18 video games out and let supervisor Bob Melvin depart to the rival Giants as soon as the season ended.
However in 2024? This wasn’t precisely the outlook atop the NL West.
Clearly, the Dodgers had an enormous winter, buying Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and others. But the San Diego outlook was way more muted, partially resulting from final season’s unmet expectations and partially because of the November 2023 passing of in style staff proprietor Peter Seidler, who had welcomed the aggressive strikes of earlier years. Soto was traded to the Yankees in change for badly wanted pitching, whereas Dylan Stop was added from the White Sox simply earlier than the Korea journey. The staff had precisely one dependable outfielder in Tatis Jr., and by no means made any strikes to assist him on the grass.
FanGraphs projected San Diego to win 83 video games and are available in 10 video games behind the Dodgers. On the All-Star break, that is basically what they had been on monitor for, given their 50-49 file whereas sitting seven video games out within the West.
It’s clearly gone higher than that, for causes each anticipated (the RISP/extra-innings silliness has gone away) and unpredictable (the trades for Luis Arraez and half the bullpen; the pace wherein Jackson Merrill turned a star; your entire existence of Jurickson Profar).
You’ll be able to see the form of the season through the playoff odds right here. The Dodgers had been all the time anticipated to make the playoffs, they usually clinched a berth final Thursday. The Padres had been simply one in every of many groups within the Wild Card combine, and it took till late summer season for that to lastly change.
That, partially, is as a result of either side completely nailed their Commerce Deadline additions. In Los Angeles, the Dodgers added Tommy Edman (119 OPS+ and 6 homers), Michael Kopech (three runs allowed in 21 video games), and Jack Flaherty (3.40 ERA in 9 begins, and a doable Recreation 1 playoff starter), whereas Mookie Betts and Max Muncy returned from harm. The Padres moved early to get Arraez in Could, then went all-in on pitching in July, with the quintet of Tanner Scott, Bryan Hoeing, Jason Adam, Sean Reynolds and Martín Pérez posting a 1.81 ERA in 129 brown-and-gold innings to date.
However even when this isn’t precisely coming off the identical preseason hype as we noticed in 2021 and 2023, we’re lastly getting that Southern California race we’ve been counting on for years. The Dodgers, in any case, have gained a dozen NL West titles for the reason that 2006 Padres of Mike Piazza, Trevor Hoffman and present Dodger supervisor Dave Roberts gained 88 video games … and took the division over the 88-win Dodgers due to a head-to-head tiebreaker. Sound acquainted?
The query, then, turns into whether or not this upcoming sequence is essentially the most impactful regular-season matchup between the 2 within the 55 years for the reason that Padres joined the Nationwide League in 1969. (Emphasis on common season right here, for the reason that Dodgers swept the Padres 3-0 within the 2020 Division Collection earlier than falling 3-1 to San Diego in a 2022 rematch.)
The Dodgers have gained 55% of the 948 regular-season video games performed between the 2, and 291 of these video games have are available in September or October. After all, it’s comparatively uncommon that each golf equipment are any good on the identical time. The Dodgers had a dry interval across the flip of the century, and the Padres had been principally a second-division membership for the primary 25 years or so of their existence, round a 1984 run to the World Collection. So in looking for the place this sequence would possibly price towards any earlier head-to-head matchups, we truly find yourself taking out most of their respective histories.
First, take away full seasons wherein one staff didn’t even win 83 video games. Then, additionally take away seasons wherein the ultimate win hole between them was greater than 5 video games, as a result of we’re looking for shut matchups right here. We’re left with solely three seasons earlier than this yr – 1996, 2006 and ‘20 – and naturally that final yr was a shortened 60-game season. If we take a look at these years and discover late-season matchups wherein the Championship Leverage Index indicated the sport was at the very least twice as vital as a mean regular-season sport, we’re left with … simply three different sequence throughout these two years that may come even shut.
Sept. 15-18, 2006: The yr that they tied for the division lead with 88 wins, the Dodgers – on the time a half-game up – welcomed the Padres to Dodger Stadium for 4 mid-September video games. The groups break up the sequence, although the ultimate sport ended up being one of the vital memorable in Dodger historical past, that being the “4+1” sport. In that one, Los Angeles got here again from a 9-5 ninth-inning deficit due to back-to-back-to-back-to-back residence runs to tie the sport – then, after permitting the go-ahead run within the prime of the tenth, gained on Nomar Garciaparra’s walk-off two-run shot within the backside of the body.
Sept. 19-22 and Sept. 27-29, 1996: This yr, the Padres gained the division by one sport over the Dodgers, and the 2 sides confronted off seven instances within the final 10 video games of the season. The Dodgers entered the ultimate three video games up by two, however San Diego gained the primary two video games to arrange a winner-take-all Recreation 162, which went scoreless into the eleventh inning earlier than Chris Gwynn’s two-run double gave San Diego the division.
And that … is it. It hasn’t precisely been many years price of drama between the 2. However the late-season aggressive matchups we have now had have turned out to be a blast, even when we do not get one other 4+1 sport or one other dramatic scoreless sport in extras.
“It’ll be enjoyable,” stated Mookie Betts. “I’m certain [there will be] a variety of feelings and whatnot, so it’ll be enjoyable. These are the video games we dream of enjoying.”
Those we dream of watching, too, even when this wasn’t essentially the season we anticipated to see it. With six video games remaining, with the division title drought nearing twenty years, the Padres are lastly within the place they’ve been attempting to get to. If Mookie thinks it may be enjoyable, effectively, we might hardly disagree.
