Certain it’s early, however it is a massive NFC East matchup to open Week 4. We reveal our keys, win likelihood, participant projections and all our Cowboys at Giants predictions.
The calendar nonetheless says September, nevertheless it would possibly as nicely learn late December so far as the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants are involved as a result of it’s primarily playoff time for these NFC East rivals.
On the onset of the season, our prediction mannequin projected the Cowboys profitable the division forward of the Giants, with the Philadelphia Eagles ending third and the Washington Commanders citing the rear.
Three weeks into the 2024 season, nevertheless, and the Cowboys and Giants are every 1-2 trying up on the division on the 2-1 Eagles and Commanders.
It’s clearly nonetheless early, however one other loss may probably derail any playoff aspirations for the Cowboys and Giants, which makes the most recent version of this rivalry extraordinarily necessary. They’ll meet at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Amazon Prime Video’s TNF with the winner gaining a serious benefit of their playoff outlook.
Because the NFL expanded to a 17-game schedule in 2021, 34 groups have began 2-2 up to now three seasons. Of these groups, almost half have gone on to make the playoffs, with 15 nonetheless punching a ticket to the postseason (44.1%).
In that very same span, there have been 25 situations of a 1-3 begin, however solely three of these groups have performed previous NFL Week 18, or 12.0%.
So, the group that’s defeated throughout this quick week faces lengthy odds of taking part in for the Lombardi Trophy. However the excellent news for Cowboys followers is their group has owned the Giants lately.
Because the begin of the 2017 season, Dallas has gained 13 of 14 conferences with Dak Prescott profitable his final 12 begins within the sequence. The Cowboys have reeled off six straight victories over the Giants since a 23-19 loss in Week 17 of the 2020 season.
Sportsbooks have the Cowboys as 4.5-point favorites, and our supercomputer agrees they’re one of the best bets in its NFL picks, giving them a 60.7% win likelihood.
Final season’s two matchups have been fully one-sided.
Within the season opener, the Cowboys rolled to a 40-0 beatdown for the franchise’s greatest shutout victory in any sport. Two months later in Week 10, Dallas gained 49-17, racking up 640 complete yards to come back inside 12 of the franchise file. The scoring differential within the two video games of plus-72 was the Cowboys’ largest in a season sweep of an NFC East opponent.
Whereas Dallas has demolished underdog New York in current conferences, the dangerous information for Cowboys followers is their group has been trounced at residence within the final two weeks, whereas the Giants have proven marked enchancment.
After yielding 230 yards in a 33-17 season-opening win over the Cleveland Browns, Dallas has suffered back-to-back losses whereas surrendering 72 factors and 888 yards with 464 of these yards approaching the bottom. That is the primary time the Dallas franchise has allowed no less than 70 factors, 850 complete yards and 450 dashing yards in consecutive video games since 1961.
The Giants, in the meantime, are coming off their first victory of the season, totaling season highs of 340 yards and 21 first downs in Sunday’s 21-15 win at Cleveland. They’re averaging 5.4 yards per play of their final two video games after averaging 3.5 yards per play in a 28-6 season-opening loss to the Minnesota Vikings.
It’s small steps for New York, aside from the Daniel Jones-Malik Nabers emergence – that’s growing into a major stride.
New York’s Key: Depend on Playmakers
Nabers is shortly exhibiting why the Giants chosen him sixth general in April’s NFL Draft and has established fairly a connection along with his quarterback.
After catching 10 passes for 127 yards and a landing in a 21-18 loss to the Commanders in Week 2, Nabers had eight receptions for 78 yards and two TDs towards the Browns. At 21 years, 56 days, he grew to become the youngest receiver in NFL historical past with two landing receptions in a sport.
His first landing seize Sunday was a sensational catch as he spun round at the back of the tip zone to haul within the ball. However even when he’s not open, he’s nonetheless exhibiting off his athleticism.
Two of his finest performs towards the Browns got here when he was lined. In a single occasion, he jumped excessive off the bottom to go up over cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. to grab the ball away for a 28-yard reception. Later, he broke up a nasty go from Jones that may’ve been intercepted in Giants territory.
And that appears to be the optimum play for Jones – simply throw it within the basic route of Nabers and hope he comes down with the ball.
Within the final two weeks, Nabers has registered a barely beneath common open proportion of 73.3 – the NFL common for receivers on the season is 73.9% – however that hasn’t stopped Jones from throwing in his route.
He had been focused 30 occasions by Jones – a ridiculous quantity in comparison with the opposite 57 receivers with no less than 50 routes run within the final two weeks.
Goal % on Routes Run – Weeks 2 & 3 (Min. 50 Routes)
47.6% – Malik Nabers, New York Giants
35.1% – Rashee Rice, Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
34.7% – Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
32.8% – Marvin Harrison Jr. Arizona Cardinals
32.3% – Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers
It’s with good motive Jones is concentrating on Nabers so regularly. On the season, his 5 receptions for 25 or extra yards are tied with the Houston Texans’ Nico Collins for essentially the most within the NFL and two-thirds of his receptions within the final two weeks have moved the chains – with 12 of 18 catches leading to first downs.
Anticipate to see a lot extra of Jones throwing to Nabers on this matchup, particularly contemplating the vulnerability of the Dallas secondary.
Within the final two weeks, the Cowboys have allowed 11.4 yards per go play and registered an open-allowed proportion of 90.0 – each league worsts.
Giants Participant Projections (as of Tuesday)
Daniel Jones: 18.5 completions on 28.2 makes an attempt for 158.8 yards with 1.0 TDs and 0.7 INTs; 8.7 carries for 49.3 yards
Devin Singletary: 16.1 rushes for 71.6 yards with 0.5 TDs
Malik Nabers: 5.8 receptions for 56.0 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
Wan’Dale Robinson: 4.5 receptions for 35.5 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
Theo Johnson: 2.1 receptions for 17.2 yards with 0.1 touchdowns
As prone because the go protection has been, Dallas’ run protection has been simply as dangerous, yielding a profitable operating play 57.1% of the time – the best fee within the NFL over the past two weeks.
This can be a stark distinction to a 12 months in the past, when Dallas leaned closely on one of many league’s finest defenses to assist it win the NFC East with a 3rd straight 12-5 file.
Devin Singletary has been overshadowed by the electrifying playmaking skill of the group’s shiny new rookie receiver, however like Nabers, the first-year Giants operating again can also be off to a robust begin to the season.
Within the final two weeks, Singletary is averaging 3.47 yards earlier than contact and has six rushes going for 10+ yards. Solely the Indianapolis Colts’ Jonathan Taylor (22.9%) and the Detroit Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs (20.7), have had a better proportion of their runs go for 10+ yards than Singletary’s 18.8 within the final two weeks (among the many 28 operating backs with no less than 20 carries).
This once more works to the benefit of New York, as Dallas has given up an NFL-worst 15 runs of 10+ yards within the final two weeks, and routinely permits opposing operating backs to achieve no less than 4 yards once they carry the ball.
Highest Fee Permitting 4+ Yard Speeding Performs
55.3% – Dallas Cowboys
54.2% – Tennessee Titans
54.2% – Washington Commanders
53.3% – Los Angeles Rams
52.6% – Carolina Panthers
The Giants haven’t been overly flashy offensively within the season’s first three weeks – apart from some highlight-reel catches by Nabers – however now they’ve the chance to pounce on a protection that’s reeling.
In fact, Dallas nonetheless has loads of offensive weapons of its personal and has sufficient firepower to maintain up with New York.
Dallas’ Key: Depend on Playmakers
Though Dallas can put up factors, it has been sporadic within the early going.
After gaining 265 complete yards of their 33-17 season-opening win at Cleveland, the Cowboys totaled 353 yards in a 44-19 Week 2 loss to the New Orleans Saints and 412 yards in Sunday’s 28-25 defeat to the Baltimore Ravens.
Whereas they’ve seen a rise in yardage every week, the issue is that they’ve additionally seen too many drives finish with subject targets.
It’s all nicely and good that Dallas has a kicker who not solely has an enormous leg however can also be extraordinarily correct (Brandon Aubrey transformed a 65-yard subject aim towards the Ravens – 1 yard shy of the NFL file – and is 15 for 15 on kicks of fifty+ yards in his profession), however the Cowboys are trotting him out an excessive amount of.
They’re scoring touchdowns on 17.1% of their offensive drives this season – tied for twentieth within the NFL – after scoring TDs on 29.4% of drives final season – fourth highest.
One other subject with the offense is it has did not put collectively a whole sport.
Towards the Browns, the Cowboys managed 216 yards earlier than halftime and simply 49 within the second half. In Week 2, they’d 226 first-half yards and 127 after the break. And on Sunday, they’d 243 yards within the second half after a 169-yard first half.
They almost pulled off an unimaginable comeback towards the Ravens after trailing 28-6 with three fourth-quarter touchdowns, nevertheless it was too little too late.
Whereas Jones has been locked in on Nabers, Prescott, who completed second within the NFL MVP voting a 12 months in the past, has been spreading the ball round. Towards the Ravens, Prescott accomplished passes to 12 totally different Cowboys – essentially the most gamers to catch a go in a sport in franchise historical past and tied for essentially the most by any group within the Tremendous Bowl period.
Though Prescott is throwing to extra receivers, he’s finishing passes at a decrease fee than typical. He ranks twenty fifth in completion proportion with a career-low mark of 60.7 after compiling a completion proportion of 68.4 over the earlier 4 seasons – the second-highest mark amongst qualifying QBs.
A part of the difficulty for a decrease completion fee is he’s throwing to receivers who aren’t open.
CeeDee Lamb is responsible for a lot of this drawback.
A 12 months after main the NFL with 135 receptions, Lamb has as soon as once more been Prescott’s high goal with a team-high 13 catches, however he isn’t on the receiving finish on as lots of his throws.
In 2023, Lamb led all NFL receivers by catching 31.5% of his group’s complete receptions. This season, he has 17.3% of Dallas’ complete receptions.
A giant motive Prescott isn’t throwing in Lamb’s route as a lot is as a result of he hasn’t gotten open. After posting a burn proportion of 67.4 in 2023 – ninth highest among the many 53 gamers focused no less than 90 occasions – he has a burn proportion of fifty.0 – twelfth lowest among the many 46 gamers with greater than 15 targets this 12 months.
Jalen Tolbert (53.3) and Brandin Cooks (53.3) have been marginally higher, however as a group, Dallas receivers haven’t helped Prescott a lot, compiling a burn proportion of 45.8 – the fifth lowest.
Cowboys Participant Projections (as of Tuesday)
Dak Prescott: 25.3 completions on 35.8 makes an attempt for 276.2 yards with 1.5 TDs and 0.5 INTs
Ezekiel Elliott: 6.1 rushes for twenty-four.0 yards with 0.3 TDs
Rico Dowdle: 12.7 rushes for 52.6 yards with 0.3 TDs
CeeDee Lamb: 6.1 receptions for 86.9 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
Brandin Cooks: 3.2 receptions for 34.1 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
Jake Ferguson: 4.1 receptions for 41.6 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
Whereas the receivers haven’t carried out a lot to assist Prescott, they need to have the ability to get open towards a banged-up Giants secondary.
New York had a pair of cornerbacks exit Sunday’s sport with calf accidents, with starter Dru Phillips’ day ending after simply seven performs and his alternative Adoree’ Jackson popping out later. The Giants have already been with out beginning cornerback Nick McCloud the final two video games after he harm his knee within the opener, and with all of the accidents to the defensive backs undrafted rookie Artwork Inexperienced made his NFL debut towards the Browns.
The struggling Deshaun Watson did not benefit from the depleted secondary, however Prescott ought to discover extra success towards a New York group that has the league’s second-worst open-allowed proportion at 85.2.
New York’s offensive line has additionally been an space of concern, and that doesn’t bode nicely for dealing with a motivated Micah Parsons.
The prideful Parsons was infuriated after Dallas was kicked within the tooth from the bounce Sunday for a second week in a row. The Ravens scored touchdowns on their first two drives and had 28 factors lower than 5 minutes into the second half every week after the Saints scored TDs on their first six possessions.
Parsons is aware of one thing wants to vary.
“We simply want 11 guys taking part in collectively and, proper now, it’s simply not in unison,” the three-time Professional Bowl defensive finish stated. “It’s at all times the take a look at, man. And at one level you’ve simply acquired to rise and say, ‘I cannot fall.’”
Decided to get the protection taking part in higher, Parsons and firm set their sights on a Giants offensive line that has registered the fourth-worst pressure-allowed fee at 50.4%.
Proper sort out Jermaine Eluemunor has been stable, posting an adjusted sack-allowed proportion of 0.0, however Andrew Thomas has a pressure-allowed fee of 12.8 – the fifth worst among the many 29 left tackles with a minimal of 40 performs in go safety.
They’ll be tasked with containing Parsons, who registered a 25.0 strain fee in final season’s two matchups.
Jones solely confronted the Cowboys as soon as final season after lacking the Week 10 sport with a torn proper ACL and was sacked seven occasions within the season opener, bringing the whole variety of occasions he’s been sacked by Dallas to 24.0 – by far his most by any opponent.
Veteran defensive finish DeMarcus Lawrence has spearheaded the assault on Jones, accounting for seven of these sacks. He had 2.0 sacks on this 12 months’s opener towards Cleveland and Parsons was chargeable for one among Dallas’ 6.0 sacks of Watson, however the Cowboys have notched only one within the final two video games.
They’re poised to generate a go rush on this one and proceed to provide Jones nightmares. If it does, the Cowboys must be on their approach to one other victory over the Giants and put themselves in a greater place to make the playoffs.
You should definitely take a look at our MLB, NBA, NFL and school soccer protection. And observe us on X and Instagram for extra!
