Army and Navy are in the College Football Playoff race. Which means they could play twice

The Military–Navy sport occupies a particular, but peculiar place on the school soccer calendar.

Its significance is plain, given the historical past, ferocity and pageantry of the rivalry. It stands alone — actually — as the one sport on the Saturday after convention championship weekend in December. But the stakes of the sport usually haven’t mattered by way of rankings or the nationwide championship race.

This yr, it’s difficult.

The service academies are each undefeated and ranked. And the 12-team School Soccer Playoff implies that the No. 23 Black Knights (7-0) and No. 24 Midshipmen (6-0) are bona fide Playoff contenders — if considered one of them can win the American Athletic Convention.

However the Playoff discipline might be set on Dec. 8 — six days earlier than the annual Military-Navy sport kicks off in Landover, Md. And since Military and Navy are actually conference-mates within the AAC, the Dec. 14 matchup could possibly be the second assembly between the groups in a single season.

Right here’s a take a look at how issues might shake out.

How did we get right here?

Military QB Bryson Day by day leads all FBS gamers with 19 speeding touchdowns. (Lucas Boland / Imagn Photos)

It’s the primary time since 1926 that Military and Navy each have began a season 6-0.

The Black Knights are 7-0 and have but to path in a sport. Naturally, they lead the nation in speeding offense, led by quarterback Bryson Day by day, who has accounted for 26 whole touchdowns. Military is already 6-0 in AAC play, which means it has simply two convention video games left (at North Texas, UTSA).

The Midshipmen are 6-0 heading into an enormous sport in opposition to No. 12 Notre Dame at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., and 4-0 within the AAC. It’s already their finest season since 2019 once they received 11 video games.

Military and Navy at the moment occupy the highest two spots within the AAC standings.

So … does that imply they might play twice?

Sure — and in back-to-back weeks. They might face off within the convention championship sport on Dec. 6 and meet once more for his or her annual rivalry on Dec. 14.

However Tulane is true behind them with a 3-0 convention document and performs Navy on Nov. 16. A loss might derail Navy’s shot at punching its ticket to the convention championship and thus crush the Mids’ Playoff hopes.

Will the Military-Navy sport depend towards the CFP?

A possible assembly within the AAC championship would. However the annual, neutral-site sport won’t.

Choice Day for the Playoff is Sunday, Dec. 8, and the annual Military-Navy sport is the next Saturday. Within the four-team Playoff period, the choice committee had a protocol that allowed it to attend for Military-Navy if it had implications on the sector. However as a result of the 12-team Playoff begins the weekend of Dec. 20-21, it couldn’t wait on the end result this time round.

This implies there’s a situation by which one service academy wins the AAC and a berth into the CFP, then loses its ultimate regular-season sport to the identical opponent it beat out to advance to the Playoff.

There’ll nonetheless be bragging rights on the road, in fact.

Would Military or Navy have much less time to arrange for a Playoff sport?

Provided that no different groups play a sport the week of Dec. 14, if both service academy earns a spot within the Playoff it could have much less time to arrange for its postseason opponent.

What are the probabilities Military or Navy makes the Playoff?

There’s a 29.6 % likelihood that Military or Navy makes the Playoff, however the person percentages for each groups relying on the outcomes of their subsequent video games look slightly totally different.

If Navy beats Notre Dame on Saturday, the Midshipmen’s odds to make the Playoff rise to 10 %, based on the projection mannequin by The Athletic’s Austin Mock. With a loss, that drops to five %.

Military faces a better opponent in Air Pressure, so the Cadets’ percentages are larger: 30 % with a win and 14 % with a loss. Military additionally has to play Notre Dame on Nov. 23, at Yankee Stadium.

Mock’s mannequin offers Military a 63 % likelihood to win the AAC, whereas Navy is at 15 %.

GO DEEPER

What do Military and Navy’s historic begins imply for AAC championship? CFP?

What else must occur for both workforce to make the Playoff?

Two issues have to occur. First, the plain one, is for Military or Navy to maintain profitable and win the AAC. It’s unlikely both could make the Playoff as an at-large workforce.

Second, they seemingly want the Mountain West to beat up on one another. Boise State (5-1) is at the moment ranked forward of Military and Navy, and the Broncos’ solely blemish is a highway loss at Oregon.

The opposite workforce to fret about from the Mountain West is UNLV (6-1). Boise State performs at UNLV on Friday, which may have a major affect on the Group of 5 Playoff bid.

If you need a rooting information to get Military or Navy into the CFP, I’d in all probability root for UNLV to drag the upset this weekend after which proceed to root for these two groups to lose down the stretch. — Austin Mock

Has Military or Navy ever received a nationwide championship?

Led by 1946 Heisman Trophy winner Glenn Davis, Military claimed nationwide titles in 1944, 1945 and 1946. (Bettmann by way of Getty Photos)

Sure, however the specifics are a bit difficult, as a result of faculty soccer hasn’t at all times held a nationwide championship sport.

Military claims 5 nationwide championships (1914, 1916, 1944, 1945, 1946), although a number of packages declare titles for 4 of these years. Equally, Navy claims a share of the 1926 nationwide title.

The final time both workforce cracked the AP high 10 was in 1964, when Navy peaked at No. 6.