The percentages have been stacked towards the Cincinnati Bengals early on. However with Joe Burrow main the way in which, they’re digging out of their very own grave but once more. Our mannequin‘s Eagles vs Bengals predictions level to them preserving it going at residence in Week 8.
Halloween is sort of upon us and it’s the time for an excellent scare, whether or not it’s haunted homes, spooky cemeteries or clowns.
And whereas few issues are scarier to NFL followers than an harm to their beginning quarterback, a disastrous begin to the season to derail any playoff hopes and make the remainder of the yr digital meaningless is equally horrifying.
An 0-3 begin is actually a loss of life sentence for an NFL workforce.
That’s precisely the place the Cincinnati Bengals discovered themselves following a 38-33 loss to the Washington Commanders in Week 3.
Within the 22 accomplished seasons because the NFL expanded to 32 groups and adjusted to eight divisions in 2002, there have been 103 cases of a workforce beginning 0-3. And of these 103 groups, only one made the playoffs – the 2018 Houston Texans. For the reason that creation of the 14-team playoff format in 2020, all 16 groups that began winless by way of three video games missed the playoffs.
The percentages have been stacked towards the Bengals, however they’re within the strategy of digging themselves out of their very own grave. As of Wednesday, our projection mannequin gave them a 44.3% probability of reaching the postseason.
Earlier than they will crawl all the way in which out and be part of these with a playoff pulse, they must get again to .500 – one thing they will accomplish with a win this Sunday towards Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and the visiting Philadelphia Eagles at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati (on CBS).
Gradual begins have been the norm for the 3-4 Bengals over the previous few years, however this NFL season was purported to be totally different. Joe Burrow started this season wholesome for the primary time since his 2020 rookie season, however similar to in 2022 and 2023, the workforce opened up with back-to-back losses.
The Bengals then fell to the Washington Commanders to start out 0-3 for the primary time since starting with 11 straight defeats in 2019 – the yr earlier than they drafted Burrow with the highest choose.
Burrow’s play this yr has helped preserve Cincinnati’s season from spiraling uncontrolled.
With 14 touchdowns to simply two interceptions, he has a career-high 110.1 passer score to path solely Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens (118.0) and Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions (111. 5) for tops within the league. He additionally ranks fifth in whole QB EVE (180.5), which measures yards gained in comparison with the league-wide projected quantity in anticipated passing conditions.
He’s managed to climb the leaderboards following a ho-hum efficiency within the opener – his first motion since tearing a ligament in his proper wrist in Week 11 of the 2023 season. Since passing for 164 yards with no landing in a Week 1 loss to the New England Patriots, Burrow’s well-thrown proportion (88.3) and pickable move price (0.53) each high the NFL.
Burrow hasn’t been requested to do an excessive amount of in Cincinnati’s final two video games – a 17-7 win over the New York Giants in NFL Week 6 and a 21-14 AFC victory over the Cleveland Browns final Sunday. He tried 28 and 25 passes, respectively, after trying 31, 36, 38 and 39 within the earlier 4 video games.
A part of the drop-off in move makes an attempt needed to do with how the video games performed out, with the Bengals enjoying from forward and by no means trailing because the opening minutes. They’ve thrown on 57.1% of offensive performs within the final two weeks after recording the league’s seventh-highest price of passing performs by way of 5 weeks at 62.2%.
Towards the Browns, he threw an 18-yard landing move to Ja’Marr Chase and later related with Tee Higgins for a 25-yard rating with Higgins scampering 20 yards to the top zone after breaking away from Browns cornerback Cameron Mitchell.
Chase completed with 55 receiving yards, bringing his season whole to a league-leading 620. The three-time Professional Bowler additionally leads the NFL with six landing receptions.
The Burrow-Chase connection has been one of the crucial fearsome QB-receiver combos courting to the pair’s days collectively at LSU, and it’s the league’s high duo by way of the primary seven weeks of this season.
Highest Passer Score for QB-Go Catcher Combos (Min. 40 Targets)
141.0 – Joe Burrow & Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
133.3 – C.J. Stroud & Nico Collins, Houston Texans
132.1 – Sam Darnold & Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
125.5 – Baker Mayfield & Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
123.6 – Brock Purdy & George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
Chase makes up half of Cincinnati’s harmful one-two punch at receiver, as Burrow additionally has recorded a 109.6 QB score on his 45 throws to Tee Higgins. The fifth-year receiver has caught 29 of these passes for 341 yards with three touchdowns.
Whereas Chase is the Bengals’ high downfield menace – solely the Minnesota Vikings’ Justin Jefferson and Pittsburgh Steelers’ George Pickens have extra move receptions of 25+ yards (eight) than his seven – Higgins’ return has helped Burrow and the offense get in gear after sputtering early.
Higgins missed the primary two video games of the season due to a nagging hamstring harm, and the Bengals are a totally totally different workforce when he’s on the sphere.
Since Week 3, Burrow has focused Chase and Higgins every 29 occasions, although he’s not solely specializing in these two. He’s spreading the ball round, because the Bengals are the one workforce to have seven gamers with at the least 14 receptions.
Whereas Burrow is efficient passing the ball on fast hitters and out of play motion, he’s been his most harmful when he drops again to throw.
On 60 makes an attempt on drop-back ideas, he’s recorded each the best completion proportion (71.7) and well-thrown proportion (90.0), in addition to the bottom pickable move price (0.00) amongst qualifying QBs – and his stats are considerably higher than the league common in these classes.
Burrow is trying comfy within the pocket, although he has been coping with a good quantity of stress. He was sacked thrice by the Browns one week after the Giants sacked him 4 occasions.
Though he’s now dealing with an Eagles workforce that has racked up 13 sacks within the final two weeks, there’s motive to consider Cincinnati will have the ability to comprise Philadelphia’s move rush.
Positive, the NFC playoff-hopeful Eagles sacked Daniel Jones seven occasions and took down Drew Lock as soon as in final Sunday’s 28-3 win after sacking Deshaun Watson 5 occasions in a 20-16 victory over the Browns in Week 6, however these showings got here towards two of the league’s most inept offenses.
Previous to obliterating these inferior foes, Philadelphia had simply six sacks earlier than its Week 5 bye. Via 4 weeks, the Eagles registered the NFL’s fifth-worst stress price at 36.5, and solely the Atlanta Falcons (3.0) had a decrease sack price than the Eagles (4.2).
The Bengals, in the meantime, confronted two of the league’s high groups at making use of stress of their final two video games, because the Browns rank third in stress price (48.9), whereas the Giants rank first in sack price (13.4).
It will likely be no stroll within the park – or cemetery – however the offensive line ought to have higher luck keeping off any move rushers – or evil spirits – and shield Burrow this Sunday. We challenge Burrow to have 24.7 completions in 33.8 makes an attempt for 293.2 yards with 1.8 TDs and 0.5 picks and provides Cincy a 58.2% probability of popping out on high and increasing its profitable streak to a few.
And if Burrow and the Bengals can get by the underdog Eagles, they will be part of the remainder of the dwelling within the playoff image. If not, they is perhaps left for lifeless.
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