Final 12 months’s first Faculty Soccer Playoff rankings got here out on Halloween. This 12 months’s are on election evening. These guys have fairly a humorousness.
And so they’ll want it this season, as a result of their jobs are about to be lots more durable.
(Submitted questions have been flippantly edited for readability and size.)
Is it actually potential that Georgia could possibly be ranked No. 1 within the CFP rankings on the finish of the common season however not make the SEC Championship Recreation? — Martin D.
Yep. And it’s not even a far-fetched state of affairs.
Texas A&M wins its final three convention video games to complete 8-0, securing one spot within the SEC Championship Recreation. Georgia and LSU win out and end tied at 7-1. The 2 have three widespread opponents, two of which, Ole Miss and Florida, they might have each crushed. The third is Alabama, which LSU would have crushed however Georgia misplaced to. LSU goes to Atlanta.
During which case, the No. 1 crew within the nation wouldn’t solely be denied a shot at its convention championship but additionally get a No. 5 seed within the CFP, with no first-round bye. That ought to go over properly.
By the best way, the identical risk exists for the present No. 1 crew, Oregon, albeit way more distant. The Geese, Penn State and Indiana all end undefeated (which might imply all three beat Ohio State.) The tiebreaker is greatest cumulative profitable proportion of convention opponents. Probably the Hoosiers may have the bottom of the three, however, technically potential.
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Who’s in charge for faculty soccer’s impending convention tiebreaker nightmare?
Lengthy story quick: These conferences are going to rue the day they removed divisions. The rationale on the time was to “be certain that the 2 greatest groups play within the convention championship recreation,” however good luck determining the 2 greatest groups in an 18-team convention through which the groups play barely half the opposite faculties. Or a 16-team league with eight convention video games.
TV loves it, as a result of they’re getting probably an Ohio State-Oregon rematch as a substitute of the Buckeyes beating Illinois/Iowa/Minnesota 45-10. However with a lot at stake now with these championship video games when it comes to first-round byes, dwelling area vs. street journey, and many others. — this ain’t it.
Which dropping coach’s seat will get hotter on Nov. 9 when LSU performs Alabama? — Stephen O.
That relies upon: Are we speaking Finebaum-caller scorching seat or real-life stakes scorching seat? As a result of whereas Alabama followers are going to have a meltdown of historic proportions as quickly as Kalen DeBoer drops a 3rd recreation, he’s in zero hazard of dropping his job after one season.
Whereas issues may get real-life angsty for Brian Kelly ought to he lose. LSU expects nationwide championships, not three-loss seasons, of which this is able to be his third straight. (And who’s to say the Tigers gained’t lose a fourth.) Maybe extra troubling, although, could be the Tigers dropping at dwelling to Alabama with the Tide at their most precarious state in 17 years. Lest we neglect, Kelly did knock off Nick Saban in his first season, however 2022 may as properly be 1922 in SEC canine years.
I nonetheless assume Kelly will probably be again in 2025 regardless, however I’m not ruling out something with an athletic director, Scott Woodward, who fired Ed Orgeron 16 video games after profitable a nationwide championship.
All that being stated … I’m selecting LSU to beat Alabama, and what a momentum swing that may be. The Tigers get again on observe for a CFP berth. All is forgiven for the loss to Texas A&M. And Kelly begins out having gained two of his first three Alabama video games.
One phrase: Extension!
What number of Huge 12 groups, if any, could be favored over Boise State on a impartial area? In the event that they win out, gained’t the Broncos be seeded increased than No. 12 — particularly with one of many “greatest losses?” Or projecting even additional, and only for enjoyable, what number of groups of any convention could be favored towards a No 8-seeded 12-1 Broncos on the blue turf? — Don D., Eugene, Ore.
In accordance with The Athletic’s Austin Mock, Kansas State (-6), Iowa State (-3) and BYU (-1) would all be favored towards Boise State on a impartial area. Which implies on their dwelling area, the Broncos could be about even with the Cyclones and a slight favourite towards the Cougars. In whole, Austin advised me, he has 17 groups as street favorites in Boise.
I’ve been defaulting to Boise because the No. 12 seed in my projections as a result of the committee has traditionally been decrease on G5 groups than AP voters attributable to power of schedule. Boise’s has not been dangerous up to now, what with its video games towards Oregon (8-0), Washington State (7-1) and UNLV (6-2), however it’s going to get watered down the remainder of the best way by San Diego State (3-4), Nevada (3-6), San Jose State (5-3), Wyoming (1-7) and Oregon State (4-4).
That being stated, the choice committee can invoke the attention check at any time. The Broncos misplaced by a area objective at Oregon, whipped Wazzu 45-24 and gained 29-24 at UNLV. They’ve the game’s greatest operating again in years, Ashton Jeanty, and a quarterback, Maddux Madsen, who at the moment has a better passer ranking (146.8) than Georgia’s Carson Beck (146.4), Iowa State’s Rocco Becht (144.7) and Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava, amongst others.
Or put it this fashion: In the event you’re Kirby Sensible, and also you’re the aforementioned No. 5 seed, which No. 12 seed would you least need to put together for: BYU, Iowa State or Boise? We’ve seen the Broncos towards the present No. 1 crew within the nation, and it got here all the way down to a last-second area objective. Sadly, there’s been no such measuring stick for any of the Huge 12’s contenders.
How ought to Nebraska really feel about its exhibiting at Ohio State? Do “ethical victories” exist? — Mitchell S.
I’d really feel lots higher about that one than 56-7 the week earlier than at Indiana. However Nebraska has been main the nation in ethical victories for the reason that begin of the Scott Frost period. We have to see some precise wins in huge video games. The win over Colorado in Week 2 was positively one. It seems the Buffs are fairly good this season, and the Huskers stomped them 28-10. However I don’t know what the heck occurred towards Indiana, aside from maybe the Hoosiers warning us they’re going to win the nationwide championship.
The final month of the season will go a good distance towards figuring out whether or not Matt Rhule has this system transferring in the best path. Nebraska ought to beat 2-5 UCLA this week, which will probably be win No. 6, ending the Huskers’ inexplicable bowl drought at eight years. However that alone isn’t sufficient. Nebraska closes at 4-4 USC, vs. 5-3 Wisconsin and at 5-3 Iowa. I don’t anticipate the Huskers to win out, however we have to see Nebraska beat a few of the Huge Ten’s good-but-not-great groups.
Even after the debacle at Indiana, Nebraska ranks third within the Huge Ten in speeding protection (3.1 YPC). Ohio State couldn’t run the ball in any respect on the Huskers. If nothing else, there’s a possibility there to beat Iowa for simply the second time in 10 years. As a result of the measuring stick for Rhule’s program isn’t making an attempt to grow to be Ohio State (but), it’s to be pretty much as good or higher than the hated Hawkeyes.
What ought to the P4 conferences have executed to keep away from potential tiebreaking nightmares? — Martin D., Detroit
There’s no apparent answer, aside from to restrict their membership to colleges inside a selected geographic area, capped at an affordable quantity like, say, 10 groups, that then play a round-robin schedule towards one another that culminates within the awarding of a championship.
ESPN Radio announcers have been discussing how the 12-team Playoff was created to get extra folks to look at school soccer versus inserting the 12 greatest groups within the Playoff. They tied this in with a dialogue on power of schedules and the way not all conferences are equal in power from prime to backside. What are your ideas? — Thomas Ok.
Effectively, they’re proper (largely). The principle causes we’re having a 12-team Playoff in 2024 is as a result of again in 2018-20, when a CFP subgroup was exploring growth, the next themes concerning the four-team Playoff have been turning into evident:
1. A small handful of packages (Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma) have been hogging a lot of the bids, on the expense of the remainder of the nation.
2. The overwhelming give attention to the CFP down the stretch meant the one video games of nationwide curiosity have been these involving the six or seven groups nonetheless in play.
3. The remainder of the bowl season had been so marginalized that star gamers have been opting out of even the Rose/Orange/Sugar/Fiesta, making for an anticlimactic postseason.
All of which led to a brand new system based mostly on the next ideas:
1. Make the postseason inclusive of everybody, from the SEC and Huge Ten to the Pac-12 (which nonetheless existed) to the Group of 5.
2. Make the final month of the common season significant for 15-25 faculties as a substitute of 6-8.
3. Restore some status to the opposite New Yr’s Six bowls.
Nowhere on that record is: Be certain the 12 greatest groups are taking part in for the nationwide championship.
In follow, although, I don’t suppose we’re going to see multiple crew exterior the highest 12 make it in a given 12 months. The seedings may look bizarre in some situations. Utilizing the present AP ballot, for instance, No. 9 BYU could be the No. 4 seed and No. 3 Penn State could be the No. 5 seed. However they thought it necessary to reward convention champs.
It’s principally the NFL Playoff format, however with one huge distinction: The method for making the NFL Playoff is solely goal. That’s simply not potential in school, as a result of, like Thomas stated, there’s no uniformity in scheduling between the conferences. So who the heck is aware of if it should really be the seven greatest at-large groups.
Stew: Your mock CFP bracket has Texas A&M taking part in LSU in a first-round recreation, which might be the second (probably third!) time they play this season. Being that it is a made-for-TV occasion, how seemingly do you suppose it’s that the committee will organize the rankings to verify we don’t get rematches? Or vice versa, if the primary recreation was notably shut and would draw lots of curiosity, that we DO get to see a rematch? — Stephen L.
The Tuesday evening reveals unveiling the committee’s rankings, I’d agree, are a made-for-TV occasion. However I roll my eyes on the conspiracy theories concerning the precise rankings. The committee members don’t work for ESPN. They don’t seem to be paid something to come back to Dallas each week and debate these items for 2 days, past the ice cream bar within the snack room. Whether or not a sure matchup will get 8 million viewers or 4 million viewers impacts ESPN (and now TNT) significantly, however has no affect that I do know of on Jim Grobe, Chris Ault or Kelly Whiteside.
One other factor to bear in mind: As a result of they publish the set of rankings going into the final weekend, it might be fairly apparent to see in the event that they rigged the final one to supply a sure matchup. This isn’t like basketball, the place the one and solely full bracket you see is the actual one. So I feel they’ll rank the groups the place they rank the groups, whether or not or not it means rematches or no rematches.
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Stewart Mandel’s 12-team Playoff projections after Week 9
The one tangible manner I do anticipate to see the impact of a bigger bracket — however after all there will probably be no solution to show it — is the best way they strategy groups 8-12, just because there will probably be much more scrutiny than earlier than. In the event you look again eventually 12 months’s rankings, it didn’t make sense why No. 10 Penn State and No. 11 Ole Miss, with zero marquee wins between them, have been above No. 12 Oklahoma, which beat 12-1 Texas. However after all, it didn’t matter. Had been the final at-large berth on the road, although …
And taking Liberty, for going undefeated towards air, over 11-2 SMU for the G5 spot was arguably the strangest choice of all the previous 10 years. However sending it to the Fiesta Bowl to get drilled by Oregon might have appeared like a innocent reward. This 12 months, that may be for a shot on the nationwide championship.
Think about a world the place school soccer is ruled by a collective bargaining settlement (virtually there) that included the best of universities to make participant trades (humor me). What hypothetical commerce earlier than this season would’ve made probably the most affect for each groups concerned? What commerce would you wish to see made after this present season? — Reid V.
Enjoyable!
Fake for the needs of this train that Michigan and Texas weren’t on one another’s schedules this season. The Wolverines desperately wanted a quarterback. The Longhorns wanted reinforcements at operating again and a few expertise at defensive deal with. Texas trades Quinn Ewers to Michigan (whereas selling Arch Manning) for Donovan Edwards and Kenneth Grant. The response on the time would have seemingly been that Michigan gave up an excessive amount of, however that’s as a result of folks hadn’t but seen the Wolverines’ present quarterbacks or breakout star operating again Kalel Mullings, who’s relegated Edwards to second banana (once more).
When it comes to this offseason — positively Ohio State getting assistance on the offensive line. I don’t have an apparent identify, however considering the Buckeyes may afford to commerce a receiver or two not named Jeremiah Smith.
With the success of Indiana’s Curt Cignetti and Duke’s Mike Elko, will groups goal extra coaches who merely win video games as a substitute of schemes, recruiters, tradition guys, and many others.? — Matt P., Downingtown, Pa.
Rating one other win for the fellows with lower-level backgrounds — Cignetti, as the pinnacle coach at IUP, Elon and James Madison, and Elko, as a former participant and assistant at Penn and assistant at Fordham, Richmond and Hofstra. They share one thing in widespread with Kelly, DeBoer, Lance Leipold, Chris Klieman and others who went on to have success as power-conference head coaches. Although we also needs to acknowledge that Cignetti (at Alabama below Nick Saban) and Elko (at Notre Dame and Texas A&M) additionally had ample expertise teaching at a few of the most extremely resourced packages within the nation as properly.
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Khan: Mike Elko’s structured, detailed strategy is simply what Texas A&M wanted
It speaks extra to what I stated final week with regard to Oklahoma coach Brent Venables: Now greater than ever, you want expertise operating your personal program. Organizational and management expertise, of which these guys have each, matter excess of splash and scheme. (Recruiting and tradition, although, are very a lot a part of the job description.)
You’d suppose the previous couple of cycles would inform ADs of their future hires, however, don’t depend on it. There’s nonetheless an excessive amount of of a premium being positioned on creating social media buzz and profitable the information convention. (Although Cignetti did that, too.) Simply rent the most effective coach for the job. The extra expertise in that seat, the higher.
By the way, I’d like to make use of this chance to flesh out a idea I’ve been contemplating as to why Lincoln Riley and Ryan Day, themselves each offensive coordinators earlier than ascending at Oklahoma and Ohio State, respectively, have backslid after such dazzling begins to their head-coaching careers. The surface-level clarification is, properly, they bought handed the keys to Mercedes-Benz packages when their former bosses left. However Riley was nonetheless profitable Huge 12 titles in his fourth season post-Bob Stoops, and Day was nonetheless beating everybody however Michigan properly previous City Meyer’s departure.
It might simply be that the roles are a lot completely different than after they bought them. Riley has not tailored properly to the NIL period. Day would seemingly be the precise reverse, what along with his $20 million roster, however even he needed to be coaxed into taking up extra of a CEO position this season. TBD whether or not it pays off.
Only a idea. Be at liberty to debate amongst yourselves.
What do you suppose goes to occur on Nov. 5? — Adam G., Columbus, Ohio
I feel half the nation goes to be elated, and half the nation goes to be steaming mad.
The primary CFP rankings are at all times divisive.
(Photograph of Georgia coach Kirby Sensible: Alex Slitz / Getty Pictures)
