Convention championship video games, by design, ought to ship some high-voltage matchups, particularly with most leagues having moved away from the divisional format. That appears to be the case this weekend, with 9 video games and no unfold bigger than 5.5 factors.
However looming over many of those contests is the primary 12 months of the expanded 12-team Faculty Soccer Playoff, together with some unknowns on how the championship outcomes will affect Sunday’s ultimate rankings.
For that purpose, we’re ordering this weekend’s title video games based mostly on their Playoff implications. We want the choice committee properly in its future endeavors.
(All level spreads come from BetMGM; click on right here for dwell odds. All kickoff instances are Jap and on Saturday except in any other case famous.)
9. Convention USA
Western Kentucky (8-4) at Jacksonville State (8-4), Fri., 7 p.m., CBS Sports activities Community
A rematch of final Saturday, when WKU drilled a 50-yard discipline objective to defeat Jacksonville State and clinch a spot within the title sport. Now the groups head to Jacksonville, Ala., to run it again, although Jax State could be with out star quarterback Tyler Huff, who left the loss to WKU with an ankle damage and didn’t return. Huff has thrown for two,003 yards and rushed for 1,176 and is the important thing to a Jax State floor assault that ranks third within the FBS at 257.4 yards per sport.
There aren’t any CFP stakes on this one, however Jax State is within the convention title sport in simply its second season of FBS play and first 12 months of eligibility. WKU, however, is on the lookout for its first CUSA crown since 2016, when Jeff Brohm was on the helm.
Line: Jacksonville State -5.5
8. Solar Belt
Marshall (9-3) at Louisiana (10-2), 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Of the 9 FBS conferences internet hosting a championship sport this season (sorry, Pac-2), the Solar Belt is the one league that also has divisions. The Ragin’ Cajuns have already cemented their fourth season with at the very least 10 wins in program historical past and the primary since Billy Napier departed and Michael Desormeaux took over. That is Louisiana’s fifth time incomes a spot within the seven-year historical past of the Solar Belt Championship Recreation, which this system gained in 2021.
Marshall knocked off James Madison on the highway in double extra time to win the east division and clinch its first journey to the Solar Belt title sport since becoming a member of the convention in 2022.
Line: Louisiana -5.5
7. MAC
Ohio (9-3) vs Miami OH (8-4), midday, ESPN
Overlook the Playoff: That is the a hundred and first Battle of the Bricks, and the primary ever for a MAC championship between the previous east division foes. The collection between Ohio’s two oldest universities stretches again to 1908 and has been performed yearly since 1945, save for a COVID-19 cancellation in 2020, with Miami holding a 56-42-2 all-time edge.
The RedHawks, who beat the Bobcats 30-20 on Oct. 19, gained the MAC championship in 2023, their fourth since 2003 and second below head coach Chuck Martin. Ohio reaches its second MAC title bout up to now three seasons below Tim Albin and fifth since 2006. The Bobcats declare 5 MAC crowns relationship again to the Fifties and ’60s, however this system is 0-5 in convention championship video games because the MAC started holding one in 1997.
Line: Miami OH -2
6. AAC
Tulane (9-3) at No. 24 Military (10-1), Fri., 8 p.m., ABC
Any hopes the American had of stealing a Playoff bid evaporated with Tulane’s loss to Memphis on Thanksgiving. Nonetheless, it’s been a powerful and inspiring 12 months for each applications. Military and head coach Jeff Monken have a shot to win the AAC within the Black Knights’ inaugural season within the convention, plus an opportunity to match (and surpass) the single-season file of 11 wins with the Military-Navy sport and a bowl nonetheless to come back.
For Tulane, first-year head coach Jon Sumrall has picked up the place Willie Fritz left off, main the Inexperienced Wave to their third straight AAC Championship Recreation. Tulane gained the title in 2022. Military — which earlier than this season competed as an unbiased, save for a seven-year run in CUSA from 1998-2004 — will host this system’s first-ever look in a convention title sport.
Line: Tulane -4.5
5. SEC
No. 5 Georgia (10-2) vs No. 2 Texas (11-1), 4 p.m., ABC
This rating is just not a slight or contrarian zag in opposition to the almighty SEC. It may very properly find yourself being essentially the most entertaining sport of the weekend. However the CFP implications aren’t as important in contrast with a few of the others, and it’s a rematch of a sport we noticed seven weeks in the past. The winner will get a first-round bye, and the loser is nearly sure to host a first-round sport. If Texas wins the SEC as a beginner is a enjoyable subplot, however the Playoff ripple impact must be minimal.
What we may be taught is which of those groups is most primed to go on a run to a nationwide championship. Can Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers put collectively a whole and stellar efficiency in opposition to a high quality opponent? Can Georgia’s protection rediscover the extent it performed at in opposition to the Longhorns in October? And if the present 12-team bracket holds, this might be a preview of a 3rd assembly between these groups within the Playoff quarterfinals.
Line: Texas -3
4. Huge Ten
No. 3 Penn State (11-1) vs No. 1 Oregon (12-0), 8 p.m., CBS
The stakes on this one are just like the SEC, however this can be a top-three showdown and a matchup we haven’t seen already this season. It’s solely the fifth assembly between the colleges and the primary because the 1995 Rose Bowl.
Contemplating Oregon is such a recognizable model and the one undefeated program within the FBS, the Geese have waddled by way of this season in a reasonably unassuming, workmanlike style. It’s the product of an unblemished however largely unremarkable schedule. Oregon deserves its rating, nevertheless it hasn’t had many high-profile video games past the win over Ohio State, making the Geese one thing of a black field from a nationwide title race perspective.
This sport may swing that sentiment in both course. It’s additionally a possibility for Penn State, which sneaked into the championship through Ohio State’s loss to Michigan, to vary its narrative with a big-game win and doubtlessly catapult itself into the highest seed.
Line: Oregon -3.5
3. Huge 12
No. 16 Iowa State (10-2) vs No. 15 Arizona State (10-2), midday, ABC
For as chaotic because the Huge 12 has been this season, the outlook right here is fairly simple: Win and also you’re in, lose and also you’re not. The choice committee doesn’t appear to assume a lot of the Huge 12, slotting Arizona State, Iowa State and BYU — all 10-2 general — between Nos. 15 and 18 within the newest rankings. All are behind the trio of three-loss SEC groups (Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina), and BYU is even behind three-loss Clemson.
Regardless, Arizona State and Iowa State have earned an opportunity to play their method into the Playoff. The Solar Devils went from final within the Huge 12 preseason media ballot to first of their first season within the convention, becoming a member of the horde of realignment newcomers enjoying on championship weekend. The Cyclones already secured the primary 10-win season in program historical past and may declare their first convention title since 1912.
If favorites win elsewhere, the Huge 12 champion is probably going locked into the No. 12 seed because the fifth auto bid, however an upset by Clemson and/or UNLV may vault the winner of this sport right into a top-four seed and first-round bye.
Line: Arizona State -2.5
2. Mountain West
No. 20 UNLV (10-2) at No. 10 Boise State (11-1), 8 p.m., Fox
That is the place issues may begin to get attention-grabbing. Possibly not if Boise State wins, which might undoubtedly wrap up a top-four bye. But when UNLV pulls off the upset on the blue turf, it triggers a few potentialities. One is clearing a path for the Huge 12 to maneuver into the highest 4 whereas nonetheless giving the Rebels an auto bid into the 12-team discipline. It additionally places the choice committee in a tricky spot by way of what to do with Boise State.
Committee chair and Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel has stated groups shouldn’t essentially be docked or punished for dropping the convention championship sport whereas different groups are at residence on the sofa. However he additionally stated groups may drop within the rankings after a title sport loss. Huh.
If Boise State loses, would the committee dare to rank it beneath Alabama, protecting the Tide within the discipline as an at-large and jettisoning the Broncos? Yeah, most likely. However the justification and fallout could be fascinating.
Line: Boise State -4
1. ACC
No. 17 Clemson (9-3) vs No. 8 SMU (11-1), 8 p.m., ABC
If we get mayhem on Choice Sunday, it’s prone to contain the ACC championship. An SMU victory would preserve issues fairly clear and easy, locking the one-loss Mustangs right into a first-round bye. However what if Clemson wins? The Tigers, regardless of having three losses and beating precisely one staff that completed above .500 — 7-5 Pittsburgh — could be in line for an computerized bid.
Would that be sufficient to earn Clemson a top-four seed or just ship it the No. 12 seed? Both method, the larger query is similar one requested about Boise State, however on an influence convention scale: Would the committee drop two-loss SMU beneath Alabama within the ultimate rankings? That might imply the Mustangs falling at the very least a few spots as a convention championship loser and the Tide climbing whereas idle.
That’s a precedent that might threaten the value of convention title video games and a predicament the committee would reasonably not wrestle with. However for those who love mess, root for the upset.
Line: SMU -2.5
(Picture of Clemson’s Khalil Barnes: Isaiah Vazquez / Getty Pictures)
