Lions and Packers and Vikings, oh my!
The 2024 NFC North is chock filled with NFL contenders, and will lay declare to one of the best division in league historical past. Three of the 4 groups have a larger than 85% likelihood to make the playoffs heading into their Week 15 matchups, with the Lions already clinching their ticket and having all however locked up the division with 4 video games to go.
At 12-1, the Detroit Lions have the within monitor to the No. 1 seed within the NFC and are tied with the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs for one of the best document within the NFL. The Minnesota Vikings aren’t far behind at 11-2 and can meet the Lions in Week 18 for a sport that would resolve the NFC North. And whereas the Inexperienced Bay Packers are at the moment 9-4, three of their 4 losses have come by the hands of their divisional foes.
Then we reluctantly have to say the Chicago Bears, who sit on the backside at 4-9 and have misplaced seven consecutive video games – although 4 these had been one-score losses.
NFC North 2024 Season Projections
Not solely is the NFC North the one division within the league heading into Week 15 with two groups which have 11 or extra wins, but it surely’s additionally the one one with three groups who’ve greater than 9.
The AFC West may be a part of them if the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos win, however solely the Chiefs have greater than 11 wins in that division. So in 2024, the NFC North is clearly superior. However this division can be among the many greatest all through NFL historical past.
Together with this yr’s NFC North squad, there have solely been 4 different situations when a division had three groups with a .690 successful share or higher, and none since 1976.
Divisions With Three Groups .690+ Successful Proportion
1953 Western: Detroit Lions (10-2)/San Francisco 49ers (9-3)/Los Angeles Rams (8-3-1)
1975 AFC Central: Pittsburgh Steelers (12-2)/Cincinnati Bengals (11-3)/Houston Oilers (10-4)
1976 NFC East: Dallas Cowboys (11-3)/St. Louis Cardinals (10-4)/Washington (10-4)
2024 NFC North: Detroit Lions (12-1)/Minnesota Vikings (11-2)/Inexperienced Bay Packers (9-4)*
(*Getting into Week 15)
And if you happen to mix every of the 4 groups of their respective divisions, the 2024 NFC North has the best general win share in NFL historical past.
The division’s collective .692 win share is healthier than two different divisions that included three groups with at the very least 10 wins: The 2007 AFC South and the 2013 NFC West.
For the needs of this evaluation, we’ll completely give attention to the Lions, Vikings and Packers.
The Bears can nonetheless end with a document barely under .500, which might solidify the 2024 NFC North’s standing as one of the best division in NFL historical past. Nonetheless, Chicago’s remaining 4 video games are in opposition to playoff contending groups and three of these are versus the three divisional opponents.
How We Received Right here
The Lions, Vikings and Packers have risen to the highest in comparable methods. All of them have a top-10 scoring offense and scoring protection, proving {that a} balanced crew equates to success greater than closely counting on a very good offense or protection.
This performed out particularly in level differential, the place the trio ranks first (Detroit), fourth (Minnesota) and seventh (Inexperienced Bay) within the league. That is the one space the place the 2024 NFC South isn’t one of the best in NFL historical past, although.
The 2013 NFC West, which included the Tremendous Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks and NFC runner-up 49ers, took high marks right here with a plus-359 level differential in comparison with the plus-333 level differential for this yr’s NFC North.
Competent quarterback play and good offensive schematics play a big function for the offensive aspect of the ball. All three groups have a top-15 offensive success fee, buoyed by a top-12 move success fee.
The three offensive player-callers – offensive coordinator Ben Johnson for the Lions, head coach Kevin O’Connell for the Vikings and head coach Matt LaFleur of the Packers — are all thought of a number of the greatest within the NFL. And their quarterbacks are executing at a excessive degree.
Jared Goff, Sam Darnold and Jordan Love all common round 250 passing yards per sport, have thrown for at the very least 20 landing passes and have a QB EVE (Effectivity Versus Anticipated) of 1.1 or higher (which ranks within the high six within the NFL).
All three stats – plus completion share – underscore the quarterbacks’ capability to effectively handle video games, rating factors, and maximize offensive alternatives, making them the driving power behind their groups’ high-powered and balanced offenses.
Operating the ball is essential to all three groups, too. They rank third (Lions), tenth (Vikings) and sixth (Packers) in speeding makes an attempt this yr, and the Lions and Packers rank within the high seven in yards and touchdowns on the bottom.
That is crucial not solely to constructing a very good offense however organising success by the air just like the trio of quarterbacks has executed this yr. All three rank within the high 15 in completion share and well-thrown share off of play motion, with Goff and Darnold rating fourth and fifth in completion fee and sixth and eighth in well-thrown fee, respectively.
Defensively, it’s a combined bag if you dig slightly deeper. None of those groups surrender numerous factors, however solely the Lions and Vikings have a extra well-rounded protection. Detroit and Minnesota rank eighth and seventh in defensive success fee allowed, respectively, whereas Inexperienced Bay ranks twenty ninth.
That is probably an enormous motive why the Lions and Vikings had been capable of break free from the Packers within the division. Inexperienced Bay, which ranks fifth in speeding yards with 144.7 per sport, averaged simply 107.6 in its three losses to Detroit (twice) and Minnesota regardless of good manufacturing from Love by the air.
Now What?
The biblical “iron sharpens iron” phrase has taken on a lifetime of its personal within the NFL world, however the purposes inside a robust division have confirmed fruitful all through historical past.
5 of the division winners from probably the most profitable divisions in NFL historical past went to the NFL Championship or Tremendous Bowl that season, and 4 of them gained – the 1936 Packers and 1953 Lions throughout the pre-Tremendous Bowl period, and the 1975 Steelers and the 2013 Seahawks. The 2022 Eagles misplaced within the Tremendous Bowl by three factors to the Chiefs.
While you’re continuously taking part in one of the best of one of the best, the common season feels just like the playoffs whereas the playoffs really feel just like the common season. That is useful for a trio of groups trying to break by its personal historical past to lift a Lombardi Trophy. Whereas the Packers final gained in 2010, the Vikings have by no means gained a title and the Lions’ solely NFL championships had been gained earlier than the existence of the Tremendous Bowl.
The NFC North is a fertile floor for high quality groups this yr. The hope, now, is for his or her regular-season success to hold over within the postseason come January.
Analysis help offered by Stats Carry out’s Sam Hovland. Try our NBA, NFL, faculty basketball, FBS and FCS protection. And observe alongside on Instagram, Bluesky, Fb and X for extra.
