Though he’s having arguably the very best season of an already Corridor of Fame-worthy profession, Lamar Jackson isn’t thought-about the chief within the NFL MVP race. A giant efficiency in opposition to his biggest nemesis might assist shut the hole on front-runner Josh Allen.
It’s been a vacation season custom in Baltimore, although something however a joyous event for the hometown Ravens.
The Ravens have hosted the Pittsburgh Steelers in a late-season assembly in every of the previous three years, with their bitter rivals leaving M&T Financial institution Stadium with a victory every time. These outcomes are a part of a exceptional run of dominance by Pittsburgh within the collection, because the Steelers have received eight of 9 matchups between the AFC North powers since 2020.
Granted, the Ravens didn’t have Lamar Jackson for any of these three January residence defeats, or two different occasions the groups have confronted each other over the previous 5 seasons attributable to both damage or relaxation for an upcoming playoff recreation. He has taken half in 4 of these aforementioned 9 video games, all Baltimore losses to the one opponent that’s frequently forged a spell upon one of many NFL’s biggest on-field magicians.
The Steelers have certainly been the kryptonite to the Ravens’ Superman, or in soccer phrases, the Michigan to Jackson’s internal Ryan Day. The famous person quarterback hasn’t posted a passer score above 80.1 in any of his 5 profession battles with Pittsburgh, has barely accomplished above 50% of his makes an attempt in these video games, and has turned the ball over a whopping 11 occasions.
That features a three-interception efficiency in Jackson’s lone win within the rivalry, which got here in his first begin in opposition to the Steelers throughout his first NFL MVP season of 2019.
The Ravens are going to want Jackson to provide numbers extra akin to Josh Allen than Jameis Winston when the Steelers as soon as once more invade Baltimore this Saturday for a pre-Christmas conflict wherein the stakes couldn’t be any larger for an NFL Week 16 recreation. Pittsburgh successful this recreation means an AFC North title for Mike Tomlin and Co., whereas a loss places the Ravens squarely into play to take the division with the Steelers drawing the difficult project of dealing with the 13-1 Kansas Metropolis Chiefs a mere 4 days after this recreation.
Pittsburgh will probably be hoping for extra of the identical after extending its hex on the Ravens with an 18-16 residence win in Week 11, a victory the Steelers sealed by thwarting a 2-point conversion try with simply over a minute left. There’s ample purpose to consider the result could also be completely different within the rematch, nevertheless, one thing the wagering neighborhood (Baltimore is a 6.5-point favourite as of Thursday) and our projection mannequin (which provides the Ravens a 70.6% win chance) each agree on.
The Steelers prevailed by flummoxing Jackson into one other off day, primarily by smothering his targets whereas making use of constant strain – a relentless theme for Pittsburgh within the latest collection historical past. Baltimore receivers mixed for a season-low 66.7% open fee that day (the Ravens rank second within the NFL in that class for the season at 83.4%), an underlying think about Jackson’s subpar 48.5 completion proportion for the sport.
That puzzling efficiency is a transparent outlier, nevertheless, in a spectacular season that might be argued is the very best of Jackson’s already extremely achieved profession. He’s on tempo for a profession excessive in passing yards and has 34 landing passes with solely three interceptions. It’s one which’s actually put him within the dialog for a 3rd profession NFL MVP award and second in as a few years, even when the general public appears to have its thoughts made up on Allen being the man.
Ought to that grow to be the case, that will put Jackson as the only member of an unique group ought to he keep his degree of play by way of the stretch run. He’s at the moment on tempo to be simply the fourth quarterback in NFL historical past with a passer score of 120 or above and at the least 400 passing makes an attempt.
The opposite three – Aaron Rodgers in 2011, Rodgers once more in 2020 and Peyton Manning in 2004 – all received MVPs. The 2 who would rank fifth and sixth for the very best score in a season ought to Jackson’s present mark of 120.7 stand – Tom Brady in 2007 and Matt Ryan in 2016 – obtained the respect as effectively.
And whereas the narrative nonetheless exists that Jackson – and now John Harbaugh, to an extent – can’t beat the Steelers, the truth is that this collection hasn’t been remotely as lopsided because the latest win/loss information counsel.
Baltimore’s 4 losses to Pittsburgh with Jackson at quarterback have come by a mixed 14 factors with every of the defeats by seven or much less, and the Ravens have actually had their possibilities in all of these contests.
They missed a probable game-winning 2-point attempt within the remaining seconds of a 20-19 setback in 2021, a 12 months after shedding a fumble on the Steelers’ 6-yard line whereas down 28-24 with beneath 2 minutes left. Final month’s two-point loss within the Metal Metropolis might have been prevented if not for 2 missed area objectives from the all of a sudden shaky Justin Tucker and two fumbles in Ravens’ personal finish that led to 6 Pittsburgh factors.
Miscues and an absence of execution have been a maddeningly recurring pattern for Baltimore throughout its 4 straight losses to Pittsburgh when Jackson begins. So has an incapacity to dam T.J. Watt, whose utter dominance on this collection might provide the very best clarification for Jackson’s struggles.
Of Jackson’s 133 adjusted move makes an attempt (no spikes or throwaways) in his final 4 conferences with the Steelers, practically half of them (61, 45.9%) have come beneath duress. And a big portion of these hurried throws have been brought on by Watt, who has generated a startling 8.5 sacks and an excellent 33.7% strain fee in Jackson’s 5 profession begins in opposition to Pittsburgh.
MOST CONSECUTIVE GAMES VS. ANY OPPONENT WITH 0.5+ SACKS
11 – T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
11 – Leslie O’Neal, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Seattle Seahawks
10 – Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
10 – Peter Boulware, Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
10 – Kevin Greene, 5 groups vs. Atlanta Falcons
(since 1982, when sacks grew to become an official NFL stat)
There’s proof to counsel that the Ravens will not be dealing with the very best model of Watt come Saturday, nevertheless, and never simply because he plans to play by way of a sprained left ankle he sustained within the Steelers’ 27-13 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles final week.
Although he’s delivered his standard sack totals with 11.5 by way of 14 video games this season, the 2021 NFL Defensive Participant of Yr has executed so regardless of an 11.5% strain fee that’s beneath the league common for edge rushers (17.3) and effectively under his typical requirements.
Watt was largely held in verify in final month’s assembly, recording simply two pressures on 24 rushes, although that also didn’t cease the Steelers from forcing three turnovers and limiting the Ravens to a season-low 329 whole yards.
Ravens Projections (as of Thursday)
Lamar Jackson: 285.9 passing yards with 1.5 TDs and 0.8 INTs; 65.6 speeding yards with 0.3 rush TDs
Derrick Henry: 15.4 rushes for 83.4 yards with 0.7 TDs
Zay Flowers: 5.6 receptions for 85.0 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
Mark Andrews: 3.4 receptions for 47.1 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
Steelers Projections
Russell Wilson: 264.1 passing yards with 1.2 TDs and 1.0 INTs
Najee Harris: 13.5 rushes for 66.7 yards with 0.4 TDs
Calvin Austin III: 4.3 receptions for 75.1 yards with 0.3 touchdowns (George Pickens is out)
Pat Freiermuth: 4.7 receptions for 55.8 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
(See all of the participant projections)
Turnovers have little doubt performed a vital position within the Steelers’ success in opposition to Baltimore, as they’ve owned a plus-8 differential (11 takeaways, three giveaways) in Jackson’s 4 lifetime losses within the collection. Jackson is popping the ball over on the lowest fee of his profession, nevertheless, and he’ll even have what needs to be the additional advantage of dealing with Pittsburgh for the primary time in entrance of a full residence crowd.
Jackson has opposed Pittsburgh simply as soon as at M&T Financial institution Stadium, and that got here through the 2020 season and beneath COVID-19 restrictions that saved attendance beneath 5,000 followers.
Then once more, Jackson has been just about good in any venue he’s stepped in throughout one other MVP-worthy marketing campaign, with the notable exception being the one which resides in Western Pennsylvania.
Count on one other shut end on this newest chapter of one of many NFL’s fiercest rivalries, one the Ravens appear to be able to dole out some long-awaited payback in the event that they’re capable of hold the errors which have haunted them in latest editions to a minimal.
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