Can defending champ Aryna Sabalenka win her second Grand Slam title on Saturday? Or will first-time main finalist Zheng Qinwen full the last word upset?
Our consultants make their predictions for Saturday’s Australian Open ladies’s last (3:30 a.m. ET; ESPN and ESPN+).
Pam Shriver: Sabalenka will win as a result of her energy sport and general confidence has by no means been at the next degree. She has gained 13 matches in a row at Melbourne Park, together with profitable final 12 months’s last versus Elena Rybakina in the most effective ladies’s main finals ever performed. She simply avenged her US Open loss to Coco Gauff with a spectacular closing surge within the semifinals. Sabalenka’s serve in two years has gone from being a humiliation, with one of many worst service yips ever, to the most effective serves in ladies’s tennis.
Invoice Connelly: Till she runs into an precise problem, all she has to do is play her sport. She has gained 20 of twenty-two units in 2024. She’s holding serve greater than she ever has, with extra aces, fewer double-faults and extra first serves in. She’s breaking serve excess of she ever has and profitable greater than 50% of return factors. She’s been untouchable other than a finals dud in opposition to Elena Rybakina in Brisbane. It is as much as Zheng to show she will be able to meet this ridiculously excessive degree; till then Sabalenka does not have to vary a factor.
D’Arcy Maine: Precisely what she has been doing all through the fortnight. Sabalenka has had an unbelievable run again to the ultimate, dominating her opponents along with her explosive energy and staying aggressive till the final level has been gained. She has but to drop a set. After her semifinal win, Sabalenka admitted she had performed “a little bit bit passive tennis” throughout her loss within the US Open last in September and stated she eased up the strain on Gauff.
However in her rematch with Gauff on Thursday, Sabalenka made certain to not make the identical errors. Even after blowing a 5-2 lead within the opening set, Sabalenka held her nerve and gained the set in a tiebreak. That mentality shift — and persevering with to play her sport — might be the distinction on Saturday. Now enjoying in her third main last, and second in Melbourne, Sabalenka is aware of precisely what she must do to win when the stakes are highest. With expertise on her facet, she stated she would be capable of deal with it like “simply one other match.” If her first six matches in Melbourne are any indication, that technique ought to work simply wonderful.
Jake Michaels: It is easy: proceed enjoying aggressive, assured tennis. Sabalenka has unquestionably been the most effective participant at this match. She’s but to drop a set in path to the ultimate and, other than a short scare in opposition to Gauff within the semifinals, hasn’t actually regarded near dropping one. Sabalenka is hanging the ball cleanly and hitting the next proportion of winners per match than anybody else who made it previous the second spherical. What’s even scarier? The world No. 2 is making fewer errors than she did in final 12 months’s run to the title at Melbourne Park.
Matt Walsh: The others actually have lined all of the bases right here — Sabalenka’s energy floor sport has been her largest weapon this match, and an enormous purpose why she hasn’t dropped a set up to now. Her semifinal in opposition to Gauff did present there was some room for enchancment; a few of her unforced errors have been sloppy (28 in comparison with 13 in her quarterfinal win, for instance), and she or he gave up a 5-2 lead within the first to permit Gauff again into the competition. However broadly, she’s on observe to go back-to-back.
What can Zheng do to defeat Sabalenka?
Shriver: Zheng should play a whole match at her high degree to beat Sabalenka. Whereas it isn’t simple to do that in your first main last, it could actually and has been achieved. Whereas Sabalenka is taken into account the most effective energy participant in at this time’s ladies’s sport, she has had some big collapses within the late levels of majors in recent times, together with a pair since profitable final 12 months’s Australian Open.
Zheng, whereas specializing in her personal bettering energy sport, should remember the fact that Sabalenka has some horrible recollections attempting to shut out main matches from profitable positions. Zheng’s coach Pere Riba would have realized so much serving to coach Gauff to the US Open championship; Gauff beat Sabalenka after dropping the primary set. Zheng should faucet into the inspiration from Riba and even from assembly Li Na right here in Melbourne, who gained this championship 10 years in the past.
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Connelly: Zheng has achieved a pleasant job of elevating her sport when required in her quick profession. She’s taken a set off of Iga Swiatek 3 times in 5 matches, and whereas her path to the ultimate in Melbourne has been fairly simple, she’s nonetheless gained two of her final three in opposition to top-10 foes after dropping 9 of her first 13. Sabalenka has established a ridiculously excessive degree of late, however Zheng’s is rising quickly, too.
We’ll be capable of inform fairly shortly if that is going to be a match. In her final two losses to top-10 foes — Rybakina in Beijing in October, Swiatek within the United Cup this month — she double-faulted 16% of the time and acquired blown out. She could not land her first serve and could not do the slightest bit of harm along with her second. And in her lone match in opposition to Sabalenka it was an analogous story: She landed simply 25% of her first serves in a 1-6 first set and by no means had an opportunity. You are not going to get many break possibilities in opposition to Sabalenka, so you need to maintain serve your self. If Zheng is serving properly early, she might need an opportunity.
Maine: Nicely, let’s begin with the apparent right here: It will be powerful. Zheng did not precisely have essentially the most difficult highway to the ultimate to organize her for Sabalenka. She did not face a single seeded participant, nor did she play anybody at the moment ranked inside the highest 50. In actual fact, the typical rank of her opponent in Melbourne in her first six matches was 81.
However that was by no fault of her personal. And on show all through has been her spectacular serve, dominant forehand and nerves of metal, whilst she acquired to unchartered territory at a serious. Dayana Yastremska, whom Zheng defeated within the semis, appeared to suppose that mixture could be sufficient to defeat Sabalenka. “If she’s going to be capable of keep secure emotionally and if she’s going to be capable of maintain her degree up like she [did] at this time, fairly properly in vital moments, she will be able to win and, I’ll say, [win] fairly simple,” Yastremska stated on Thursday. Why not, proper?
Michaels: It is a magical run Zheng has been on in Melbourne, but when it is to lead to her lifting the trophy Saturday, she should make extra first serves. Solely three gamers on this match have gained the next proportion of factors once they land a primary serve than Zheng. The issue? She ranks one hundred and fifteenth of 128 in first serves made, and in no match this fortnight has she hit a mark of 60%. Zheng can’t afford to dish up a bunch of second serves to Sabalenka, maybe essentially the most aggressive participant on tour.
Walsh: It is a nice query — I feel it’s going to be troublesome however not not possible. She has the suitable mentality to be a Grand Slam champion, however Sabalenka has the expertise. I am certain Zheng will have a look at the primary set of Sabalenka’s semifinal and see that there are alternatives to get on a run; Sabalenka was 5-2 up on Gauff within the first and solely ended up profitable the set in a tiebreak. If Zheng can proceed to serve properly, keep targeted and pounce on any drops from Sabalenka, it might be sufficient to see her elevate the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup.
Who will win?
Shriver: Sabalenka is able to win main No. 2 along with her expertise and high-powered sport.
Rennae Stubbs: Sabalenka to win. I feel she has the expertise and the data now to deal with this second, particularly when she has already achieved it right here in Melbourne. Her final match in opposition to Zheng can even assist her to know she will be able to win.
Connelly: Zheng’s latest ascent is just like what we noticed from Gauff main as much as the US Open last in opposition to Sabalenka. She has gained 17 of her final 19 matches, going again to that one in opposition to Rybakina in Beijing. And even in opposition to a straightforward Australian Open draw, she’s principally regarded the half. However this bar is likely to be too excessive. Zheng must serve big and steal no matter break factors she will be able to create. It is most likely an excessive amount of to count on. Sabalenka is simply too good proper now, and she or he possible takes her second straight AO crown.
Maine: Sabalenka has been laser-focused on defending her title all through the match, and it is arduous to see anybody — particularly somebody enjoying in her first main last — stopping her. Sabalenka gained their solely earlier assembly within the 2023 US Open quarterfinals 6-1, 6-4, and whereas this match actually needs to be extra aggressive, the tip consequence would be the similar. Sabalenka will take residence her second Australian Open title on Saturday.
Michaels: Sabalenka. She has achieved it earlier than and can do it once more. No different participant, Zheng included, has been in the identical stratosphere as Sabalenka this match. She’s properly rested and targeted, and she or he is aware of precisely what it takes to elevate the trophy in Melbourne.
Walsh: Sabalenka. Expertise, type, the truth that she’s having fun with her tennis and her time in Melbourne — she’s the favourite for good purpose.
