The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs have been less-than-dominant throughout this yr’s Tremendous Bowl run. In the event that they win, the place would they rank among the many worst Tremendous Bowl champions since 1991? We dig into our historic knowledge to search out out.
Generally the information reveals one factor whereas greatness exhibits you one thing else.
Sure, the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs are on the cusp of historical past, sitting only one win shy of turning into the primary three-peat Tremendous Bowl champion in NFL historical past.
However there’s been one thing totally different about this model of the Chiefs. They’ve relied extra on their protection and run recreation, and fewer on Patrick Mahomes.
In the course of the common season, Kansas Metropolis ranked third in defensive EVE (our effectivity versus anticipated mannequin) in opposition to the run and eleventh in defensive EVE general, and the workforce’s 26.5 speeding makes an attempt per recreation have been its most since 2015. On the identical time, Mahomes completed the common season with a career-low 3,928 yards.
Regardless of successful a franchise-record 15 video games, the Chiefs appeared to be much less dominant than in earlier years. 13 of their 16 video games (not together with a 38-0 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 18 when the starters sat) have been determined by 10 factors or fewer. That’s tied for essentially the most such video games in a single season in franchise historical past with the 1988 workforce that completed 4-11-1.
Kansas Metropolis’s level differential of plus-59 through the common season was the workforce’s worst since 2012. Even taking out the Week 18 loss, it might nonetheless be the second-lowest differential of the Mahomes period (since 2018).
Now there’s a variety of detrimental there for workforce that was 15-1 heading into that Broncos recreation and has knocked off the Houston Texans and Buffalo Payments (once more) in two extra shut playoff video games to say yet one more AFC championship.
Nonetheless, we are able to’t conceal from the information, both. If nothing else, it offers the Chiefs one other problem to push apart heading into its showdown with the NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles in Tremendous Bowl LIX Feb. 9 in New Orleans.
Not solely did KC rank nineteenth within the NFL in general EVE (Philadelphia was second), nevertheless it additionally sits simply eighth in TRACR heading into Tremendous Sunday (the Eagles are third). TRACR takes knowledge on each side of the ball to calculate what number of factors per 10 drives higher or worse groups are than the typical workforce throughout these particular seasons.
It’s necessary as a result of it normalizes a workforce’s efficiency from numerous league elements throughout a respective period that may both inflate or deflate its numbers. The mannequin is identical one we used to find out the 2007 New England Patriots are the most effective regular-season workforce, and the 1996 Inexperienced Bay Packers are the most effective Tremendous Bowl champ of the previous three-plus many years.
In case you’re questioning, Kansas Metropolis’s first championship season of this dynasty was its biggest with a 12.30 TRACR in 2019. Mahomes completed with 4,030 passing yards and a career-low 5 interceptions in 14 video games and Travis Kelce had 97 receptions for 1,229 yards because the Chiefs received their final 9 video games after a 6-4 begin. Mahomes received the primary of his three Tremendous Bowl MVPs as KC rallied previous San Francisco 31-20 in Miami.
As for the 2024 Chiefs, their 4.28 TRACR is the seventh lowest for a Tremendous Bowl workforce because the 1991 season. And whereas the 2018 workforce posted the third-best offensive TRACR over this stretch at 13.80, this yr’s workforce positioned ninth within the league at simply 4.23.
In the event that they have been to win their third straight title, the Chiefs would doubtless turn out to be the third-worst Tremendous Bowl champion over this span. Certain, Kansas Metropolis’s TRACR would rise with a victory, however most likely not sufficient to catch the 2006 Indianapolis Colts’ 5.66 mark.
Tremendous Bowl Champions With the Lowest TRACR
With the Eagles driving a ten.68 TRACR and the Chiefs at that 4.28 mark, it’s no shock our projection mannequin offers Philly the benefit with a 50.8% likelihood (as of Thursday) of spoiling KC’s bid to raise the Lombardi Trophy for a 3rd straight yr.
Philadelphia will enter the sport with the Twenty third-highest TRACR amongst Tremendous Bowl groups since 1991 and the thirty second finest amongst all groups over that stretch – simply behind the 1995 Dallas Cowboys (10.89), who beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-17 in Tremendous Bowl XXX.
So despite the fact that the Eagles carry a powerful score, the Chiefs deliver the groups’ mixed TRACR to only 14.96 – making it the eighth-worst Tremendous Bowl matchup of the previous 34 years. And with a differential of 6.40 between the groups, it additionally ranks tenth in relation to essentially the most one-sided matchups over this span.
The workforce with the best mark has received six of the 9 matchups ranked forward of this one by way of the biggest TRACR differential, although two of the highest three misplaced, together with the largest one-sided affair on the finish of the 2007 season.
That yr, the Patriots entered Tremendous Bowl XLII with an 18-0 file and the best TRACR of any convention champion over the previous 34 years at 21.70. However the New York Giants (3.10) discovered a option to maintain down Tom Brady and New England’s traditionally good offense, and Eli Manning discovered Plaxico Burress for the go-ahead rating with 35 seconds left. The 17-14 win was the third-biggest upset in Tremendous Bowl historical past by way of level unfold with the Patriots favored by 12.5.
None of that’s more likely to matter to Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Co.
Kansas Metropolis, a 1.5-point favourite by way of level unfold this yr, was additionally an underdog by our mannequin the previous two years. In 2022, the Chiefs held an 8.55 TRACR whereas the Eagles headed in at 11.02 they usually had a 5.93 mark final yr whereas the San Francisco 49ers have been at 10.38. In the end, it didn’t matter because the Chiefs held off the Eagles 38-35 in Tremendous Bowl LVII and got here from behind to beat the 49ers 25-22 in Tremendous Bowl LVIII.
The historic knowledge definitely doesn’t assure this can be a one-sided dud of a Tremendous Bowl, particularly with this Chiefs workforce concerned. Kansas Metropolis’s eight comeback wins after trailing at any level within the second half are tied for the second most in a single season (together with the playoffs) all time behind solely the Minnesota Vikings’ 9 in 2022.
The information says the Chiefs could be one of many worst Tremendous Bowl groups of the previous three-plus many years, however that doesn’t imply they received’t discover a option to win.
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