Burnley are heading in the right direction to shatter defensive information this season within the Championship. We doc what these are, and the way Scott Parker has constructed such a resilient facet.
They’re not doing it in glamorous vogue, however Burnley are on observe for a record-breaking season.
Scott Parker’s facet sit second within the Championship and have a wonderful shot at incomes promotion straight again into the Premier League. The Opta supercomputers definitely likes their possibilities of doing so, giving them a 52.4% likelihood of ending inside the automated promotion areas.
In the event that they do find yourself securing promotion, it’ll doubtless be due to a defensive file that’s not simply excellent, however doubtlessly historic.
Forty completely different groups within the Premier League and the EFL have scored extra objectives than Burnley this season. But solely two have extra factors.
That’s as a result of in 31 league video games in 2024-25, Burnley have conceded simply 9 objectives, 10 fewer than some other facet in England (Leeds United – 19) and 5 fewer than any workforce inside the prime two tiers in Spain, Italy, France and Germany.
In reality, Burnley have conceded the fewest objectives of any workforce in Premier League and EFL historical past after 31 matches. Their present file even surpasses José Mourinho’s famously stingy 2004-05 Chelsea facet, who had conceded 10 objectives after 31 video games on their approach to a Premier League file low of 15 objectives conceded in a season. It’s broadly thought that’s a kind of information that’ll by no means be damaged.
Properly, Burnley are giving it their greatest go, albeit at a degree under that Chelsea facet. Though the truth that they’ll play 46 video games within the Championship this season means they’re prone to go over Chelsea’s 15-goal mark, on a per-game foundation a minimum of, the Clarets are at the moment the perfect defensive facet in English Soccer League historical past.
That rock-solid defence has seen them preserve 22 clear sheets in these 31 video games. Proceed at that price, and Burnley will register over 32 shutouts of their 46-game season, which might smash the present EFL file of 27 clear sheets set by Wigan in League One in 2017-18.
However what’s been the key behind their success?
A significant component has been James Trafford’s resurgence in objective.
It’s no secret that Trafford struggled in his first season at Turf Moor. To be truthful, a lot of the facet had a season to neglect in 2023-24, as Burnley slid out of Premier League on the first time of asking. Trafford had one of many lowest save percentages of any goalkeeper final marketing campaign (63.1%) on his approach to conceding 62 objectives. Equally, of keepers to have began 10 or extra video games, solely fellow relegated shot-stoppers Wes Foderingham (2.7) and Thomas Kaminski (2.2) conceded extra typically than Trafford’s 2 objectives per sport.
But this season, Trafford has reworked that a part of his sport. One solely want to have a look at his heroics towards Sunderland – when he saved two penalties to earn Burnley a degree – to see that. Trafford’s save proportion of 86.8% leads not solely all goalkeepers in England, however everybody in Europe’s prime 5 leagues, too.
Save proportion generally is a considerably deceptive determine if taken in isolation, although, as not all saves are created equal. It’s far simpler to cease a dribbled, weak effort from outdoors the field than a bullet header from shut vary.
We will use anticipated objectives on course (xGOT) to raised quantify the possibilities that goalkeepers face. This season, Trafford has confronted pictures on course price 18.0 xG within the Championship however conceded simply 9 instances. Which means he’s let in half the variety of objectives the common goalkeeper would count on to given the standard of efforts on course confronted. Moreover, his 9 objectives prevented is a tally solely Viktor Johansson at Stoke can higher (15.4).
However contemplating Stoke face virtually seven extra pictures per sport than Burnley, Johansson will get way more alternatives to avoid wasting pictures and subsequently ‘stop’ objectives than Trafford does.
We will use goals-prevented price to regulate for the amount of pictures a goalkeeper faces. A goals-prevented price of 1 means a goalkeeper is conceding precisely one objective for each objective they’d be anticipated to concede. Go above one and also you’re performing above expectation. Under one and also you’re not.
Trafford’s goals-prevented price this season is 2.0, which leads all goalkeepers within the division. That quantity principally tells us that he’s acting at twice the extent of an ordinary Championship goalkeeper: for each objective Trafford has really conceded, we’d have anticipated him to concede twice that quantity.
Trafford is after all aided by a sturdy defence in entrance of him. It definitely helps that Burnley have had a really settled centre-back partnership, with CJ Egan-Riley and Maxime Estève beginning 23 video games collectively. Solely Swansea (27) and Leeds (24) have had a extra frequent centre-back pairing. An skilled duo of Joshes (Cullen and Brownhill) screens in entrance of the again 4.
Not like what the top-line numbers may allude to, this isn’t a facet that sits deep and absorbs stress. At 43.1 metres from their very own objective, Burnley begin their very own passing strikes the seventh-highest up the pitch of any workforce in division, and are the least direct workforce within the Championship after they win the ball again.
Out of possession, they press fairly aggressively however primarily accomplish that within the center third, joyful to sit down in a mid-block that makes it laborious for the opposition to play via them.
However what Burnley do a particularly good job of is defending their very own six-yard field. Though they concede a surprisingly excessive proportion of pictures from contained in the field (67.9% – tenth highest within the Championship), these pictures are sometimes from broad angles which are harder to attain from.
The under graphic reveals that in one other method. The non-penalty xG worth of the common shot Burnley have conceded this yr is available in at 0.09; or roughly a 9% likelihood of being scored. That’s the bottom price of any workforce within the division. Mix that with opponents ending underneath expectation at simply 3.0% – partly as a consequence of Trafford’s type and partly as a consequence of profligacy in entrance of objective – and also you get a scatter plot as lopsided as this one.
Burnley’s clear sheet final night time in a 1-0 win towards Oxford United was their ninth in a row within the Championship. That’s certainly one of simply 12 runs of 9+ consecutive clear sheets in Soccer League historical past. The final facet to file an extended run was Torquay United in August 2010, after they registered 10 straight clear sheets. Burnley can match that file at residence to Hull subsequent week.
The all-time English soccer file belongs to Manchester United, who went 14 consecutive video games with out conceding between November 2008 and February 2009. Throughout that run, Edwin van der Sar famously saved his objective intact for 1,310 minutes, or virtually 22 hours of soccer.
What makes Burnley’s season all of the extra statistically exceptional is that they’re not scoring fairly often themselves, both. They’re certainly one of simply 5 Championship sides to common fewer than 1.0 non-penalty anticipated objectives per sport, whereas other than Blackburn (34), they’re the bottom scorers within the prime half of the desk.
Mix a scarcity of goal-mouth motion at each ends of the pitch, and Burnley’s league video games this time period are at the moment seeing the fewest objectives per sport in a season in English Soccer League historical past.
Regardless of their lack of attacking menace, solely Liverpool (1) have misplaced fewer video games in England’s prime 4 divisions than Burnley (2). This isn’t precisely rocket science, nevertheless it’s merely extraordinarily laborious to lose soccer matches whenever you don’t concede many objectives.
Getting again to the Premier League will likely be extra of a precedence than being thrilling to observe for the overwhelming majority of Burnley supporters. Sustain this defensive file and they’ll definitely be preventing for the highest two positions come the top of the season.
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