The San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs are formally headed to Tremendous Bowl LVIII, which kicks off Sunday, Feb. 11, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
With two weeks till the large day, we’re taking an early take a look at what you may anticipate within the matchup. Stephen Holder units it up with what to know, and our NFL Nation reporters Nick Wagoner and Adam Teicher look nearer at every crew. Seth Walder crunches the numbers to present you some key stats to know, Matt Bowen dives into the sport plan with a key matchup and Eric Moody pulls out an X issue. Aaron Schatz solutions large questions surrounding the ultimate sport of the season, and Jason Reid explores the quarterback matchup. And at last, now we have early gut-reaction predictions from our consultants. Let’s dive in.
Word: Recreation traces are through ESPN BET. Predictions are from ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index (FPI).
Leap to:49ers | Chiefs | Key statsMatchup keys | Huge questionsQuarterbacks | Betting | Predictions
When: Sunday, Feb. 11, 6:30 p.m. ET on CBSWhere: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas | TicketsOpening line: SF -2.5 (O/U 47.5)FPI prediction: SF, 59% (by a median of three.1 factors)
Few groups have turn into extra synonymous with the Tremendous Bowl than the Chiefs and 49ers. Kansas Metropolis is headed to its sixth Tremendous Bowl, together with a exceptional fourth prior to now 5 seasons. If that is not a dynasty, what’s? For the 49ers, they’re making an eighth look within the Tremendous Bowl, however have an opportunity to win their first since 1994.
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This matchup of Tremendous Bowl LIV after the 2019 season, received by the Chiefs, supplies an opportunity at immortality for all concerned. However, extra particularly, it offers the Chiefs the chance to proceed a run that has been not often seen within the NFL. Successful back-to-back Tremendous Bowls has proved to be extremely tough, however the Chiefs can accomplish the feat for the primary time for the reason that 2003-04 Patriots did it practically 20 years in the past. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes turns into the youngest quarterback to start out his fourth Tremendous Bowl, whereas coach Andy Reid prepares for his fifth Tremendous Bowl, trailing solely Invoice Belichick (9) and Don Shula (6) in appearances.
For the Niners, it is an opportunity to lastly break via after advancing to the NFL Championship Recreation seven occasions since 2011 with out a single Tremendous Bowl title. As nice because the franchise has been, the truth is it has been 29 seasons for the reason that 49ers final received a championship, with Steve Younger profitable MVP in Tremendous Bowl XXIX. Brock Purdy is not any Steve Younger, however profitable his first Tremendous Bowl could be a giant first step for the younger 49ers quarterback. — Holder
Common season: 12-5 | NFC seed: No. 1
Motive for hope: Skilled star energy. No crew in soccer has a much bigger galaxy of stars than the Niners. That they had a league-high 9 gamers chosen to the Professional Bowl, 12 extra chosen as alternates and 7 gamers who earned first or second-team All-Professional honors. What’s extra, the Niners have loads of gamers and coaches who’ve participated in deep playoff runs, together with eight gamers who performed significant snaps in Tremendous Bowl LIV. Once they’re rolling, the Niners look each bit the a part of a juggernaut, profitable their 12 regular-season video games by a median of 19 factors, second finest within the league.
Motive for concern: Latest historical past. The 49ers do not precisely have fond recollections of taking part in the Chiefs on a giant stage. The Niners misplaced to the Chiefs of their final Tremendous Bowl look 4 years in the past. And whereas the Niners have not performed the Chiefs since Oct. 23, 2022, they misplaced by three touchdowns that day and haven’t defeated Kansas Metropolis in a sport with Mahomes at quarterback. None of that ought to stop the Niners from turning the tables, however there’s one thing to be stated for the concept that the Chiefs are merely a foul matchup for them. — Wagoner
Common season: 11-6 | AFC seed: No. 3
Motive for hope: They’ve Mahomes and he performs at his finest within the postseason. In his previous six postseason video games, Mahomes has accomplished 70% of his passes with a yards-per-attempt common of seven.0 and 11 touchdowns with out throwing an interception. And the remainder of the offense has proven indicators of life just lately. They’re getting extra large performs and had a season-high eight performs of greater than 20 yards within the divisional spherical win over the Payments.
Motive for concern: Sloppy offensive play. The Chiefs through the common season led the league in dropped passes, have been second in offensive penalties and tied for seventh in turnovers. They’ve received within the playoffs regardless of their sloppiness. Contained in the crimson zone alone within the wild-card win over the Dolphins, they dropped a cross, botched a shotgun snap and had a penalty that worn out a TD on three totally different drives, main them to kick discipline objectives. Mecole Hardman Jr.’s goal-line fumble within the divisional spherical allowed the Payments to remain shut. How for much longer can the Chiefs proceed to beat good groups by taking part in this fashion? — Teicher
1:52
Chiefs prime Ravens in AFC title sport to earn spot in Tremendous Bowl LVIII
Patrick Mahomes leads the Chiefs to a different AFC title, defeating the Ravens 17-10.
Stats to know
San Francisco’s plethora of playmakers is a large cause why the crew will not be solely within the Tremendous Bowl, however has boasted the most effective offense all season. ESPN’s receiver monitoring metrics present the domination, as every of their prime targets leads their place in at the least one class. Brandon Aiyuk leads all receivers in catch rating (96) and total rating (98), Deebo Samuel leads all receivers in YAC rating (83), George Kittle leads all tight ends in total rating (84) and Christian McCaffrey leads all operating backs in catch rating (99). Perhaps a protection can take away one among them, but it surely’s nearly not possible to cease all of them.
Mahomes had the worst statistical common season of his profession in 2023, rating nineteenth in QBR on passing performs. So how did the Chiefs make it to the Tremendous Bowl? Nicely, throwing is just a part of the best way Mahomes impacts the offense. And in 2023, taking part in with the worst receiving corps within the league when it comes to RTM’s catch rating, it is the opposite kinds of performs the place Mahomes has excelled. He has averted sacks (second-lowest sack price behind Josh Allen) and scrambled extremely effectively (second most scramble EPA, once more behind Allen). In fact, a high-end Kansas Metropolis protection has made all the distinction, too. — Walder
Contained in the matchup
Chiefs LB Nick Bolton vs. 49ers RB McCaffrey
The run sport is a foundational a part of Kyle Shanahan’s offense, so I am specializing in Bolton’s skill to restrict McCaffrey in early-down conditions. Bolton is fast to key and diagnose and has the play velocity to scrape to the perimeters. That is a crucial component in opposition to a 49ers unit that may use formations and movement to achieve quantity benefits to the play aspect. McCaffrey averaged 5.4 yards per carry this season with 44 rushes of 10 or extra yards. He makes this offense go. — Bowen
X issue: Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs
Pacheco has turn into the undisputed chief of the Chiefs’ backfield, and his workload displays it. Over the course of six profession postseason video games, he has averaged 18.7 touches and 90.5 whole yards. There’s a notion that the 49ers’ protection is among the many finest within the league. However of their path to the Tremendous Bowl, they’ve given up a number of speeding yards to operating backs akin to Aaron Jones, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Pacheco is the second Chiefs participant with a speeding landing in 4 consecutive playoff video games. His streak might proceed in opposition to the 49ers behind a Chiefs offensive line that has been very good this postseason. — Moody
Answering large questions
What is the greatest distinction with Steve Wilks as 49ers defensive coordinator?
The distinction for the 49ers’ protection this season has been a higher battle with stopping the run. The 49ers ranked fifteenth in run protection DVOA through the common season after rating second and first within the earlier two seasons.
Tremendous Bowl LVIII: 49ers-Chiefs
• First take a look at 49ers-Chiefs rematch »• How SF pulled off its big comeback »• Answering large Tremendous Bowl questions »• Playoff schedule » | Skilled picks »Extra Tremendous Bowl protection »
The most important concern has been stopping runs that get downfield moderately than stopping runs proper up entrance. The 49ers’ run cease price is similar because it was final season, 32%. However in 2022 the 49ers have been the most effective protection within the NFL, stopping second-level runs (5-10 yards) and open-field runs (11 yards or extra). This season, they rank seventh and twenty first in these classes, respectively.
Final season, the one place the 49ers had an issue in opposition to the run was quick yardage. They allowed a 71% conversion price on these runs (third down, fourth down or aim line with 1-2 yards to go). This season, they allowed a 79% conversion price on these runs.
Did Travis Kelce take a step again from his standard Corridor of Fame play within the common season?
Sure, completely. However he hasn’t taken 20 steps again into the land of “common tight finish.” He is nonetheless among the best within the enterprise, even when he could not match his earlier superior performances.
This season, I launched a brand new model of my receiving DYAR metric based mostly on routes moderately than targets. It does a greater job of valuing the power of receivers to get open and entice targets on a gentle foundation. Kelce led the NFL in 2022 at 642 yards above alternative. No different tight finish was above 450. This season, Kelce led the league once more, however solely with 399 DYAR. Kittle was proper behind him at 395.
ESPN’s receiver monitoring metrics inform the same story of a lesser, however nonetheless sturdy, 2023 season. Final season, Kelce was second behind Kittle with a 75 RTM rating. This season, Kelce dropped to seventh with a 58 RTM rating. His open rating and YAC rating dropped barely, and his catch rating dropped considerably.
We all the time needed to anticipate some decline from Kelce this season. The person is 34 years previous! He simply set the report for receiving yards by a decent finish at age 34 or larger with 984. Tony Gonzalez was the one different tight finish to have at the least 850 yards at this age. (He did it 3 times.)
Nevertheless, to date within the 2023 playoffs, Kelce has caught 16 of 17 targets for 191 yards and three touchdowns. That is actually higher than his efficiency through the common season. — Schatz
Quarterback matchup
Purdy vs. Mahomes
Chosen by the 49ers with the ultimate decide of the 2022 NFL draft, Purdy was that draft’s Mr. Irrelevant. However Purdy has been something however irrelevant to the 49ers. He has been extremely environment friendly and at occasions spectacular whereas directing the offense. In solely 26 profession begins (together with playoffs), Purdy has a report of 21-5. That is a glowing .808 profitable share. By making sound choices with the soccer, Purdy shortly earned the belief of Shanahan and the crew’s many proficient playmakers on offense. With the 49ers trailing the Lions by 17 factors at halftime within the NFC Championship Recreation, Purdy stayed cool and led the 49ers’ spectacular comeback victory that places them again within the Tremendous Bowl for the second time in 5 seasons.
Already an all-time nice, Mahomes can be vying to turn into solely the fifth quarterback in NFL historical past to have at the least three Tremendous Bowl championships, following Tom Brady (six), Joe Montana (4), Terry Bradshaw (4) and Troy Aikman (three). Mahomes, Brady, Peyton Manning and Montana are the one QBs to have at the least two Tremendous Bowl championships and two Related Press MVP awards. For the sixth consecutive season with Mahomes as their beginning signal-caller, the Chiefs reached the AFC Championship Recreation. The one streak longer is the New England Patriots’ exceptional run of eight in a row from 2011 to 2018. — Reid
2:01
49ers rally previous Lions to win NFC title, guide journey to Tremendous Bowl
The 49ers overcome a 24-7 halftime deficit to defeat the Lions and arrange a showdown with the Chiefs in Tremendous Bowl LVIII.
Betting nugget
The Chiefs are the ninth crew prior to now 20 seasons to drag off upsets within the divisional spherical and convention championship. And in keeping with ESPN Stats & Info, six of the earlier eight went on to win the Tremendous Bowl. General, the Chiefs are 12-8 in opposition to the unfold this season, whereas the 49ers are 9-10. Since 2001, underdogs are 11-11 outright and 15-7 ATS within the Tremendous Bowl.
Intestine response predictions
Aaron Schatz, NFL analyst: Chiefs. Their protection is taking part in very effectively, whereas the 49ers’ protection has declined in latest weeks. Each operating backs ought to have good video games, however solely the Chiefs have Mahomes.
Dan Graziano, NFL nationwide reporter: Chiefs. Each time I do not decide them, they appear to make me really feel silly. They hold discovering methods to win.
Dan Orlovsky, NFL analyst: Chiefs. Mahomes all the time offers them an edge, and the protection is great.
Discipline Yates, NFL analyst: Chiefs. The Lions did a stable job of defending Jared Goff within the NFC Championship Recreation, which I anticipate the Chiefs to have the ability to replicate. Even when they’re unable to, Mahomes is undeterred by strain and can lead the Chiefs to their third Tremendous Bowl win in 5 years.
Jordan Reid, NFL draft analyst: Chiefs. San Francisco is trying to avenge its loss to the Chiefs from Tremendous Bowl LIV, however I feel Kansas Metropolis will as soon as once more be an excessive amount of for the 49ers as they go on to win back-to-back titles.
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Matt Miller, NFL draft analyst: Chiefs. I like a number of the situational matchups for San Francisco, however the playoffs are in regards to the crew with the most effective quarterback and head coach duo — and that is Kansas Metropolis.
Seth Walder, analytics author: 49ers. San Francisco’s playmakers can be too overwhelming for Kansas Metropolis. There is a cause the Niners have been the most effective offense all yr lengthy — and they are going to be once more on Tremendous Bowl Sunday.
Seth Wickersham, NFL author: 49ers. Shanahan’s scars are lastly healed.
Stephania Bell, NFL harm analyst: 49ers. Shanahan will use the teachings realized from giving up a lead (in addition to the arrogance gained Sunday night time that they will come again from behind) to drag out a win.
