The 2024 season featured some epic house run performances, from Aaron Decide’s MLB-leading 58 to Shohei Ohtani’s 54 (as a part of his unprecedented 50-50 marketing campaign) to Anthony Santander’s 44 (the fifth-highest whole in historical past by a switch-hitter).
What is going to 2025 have in retailer relating to the lengthy ball? For some clues, let’s take a look at every workforce’s projected season chief, as of Monday, in accordance with FanGraphs Depth Charts (a mix of the Steamer and ZiPS projection methods, with anticipated taking part in time allotted by FanGraphs employees). Together with every projected chief, we’ll embrace that workforce’s precise 2024 chief, in addition to one different slugger to regulate as he takes his cuts in ‘25.
Lastly, remember the fact that projections are, by their nature, conservative. That’s why you received’t see any projections of 50-plus homers on this listing. A 12 months in the past, Decide was projected for 46 homers, and Ohtani 39. Some gamers are sure to outperform theirs in 2025 — however who will or not it’s?
If Decide cracks the 50 mark once more, he would tie Mark McGwire, Babe Ruth and Sammy Sosa for probably the most such seasons in Main League historical past (4).
Keep watch over … Jasson Domínguez (21): It seems like we’ve been ready a very long time for The Martian to really arrive, however he simply turned 22 and is about for his first prolonged massive league alternative.
It feels unfair to anticipate 50-plus lengthy balls once more from Ohtani, provided that he’ll now not be a full-time DH. However even in his previous three seasons as a two-way participant, he averaged 41.
Keep watch over … Michael Conforto (20): He struggled mightily at Oracle Park final season, however his .530 SLG on the street ranked twelfth amongst MLB qualifiers.
Rooker went deep 24 occasions on the street final 12 months, in contrast with 15 at house, because the Oakland Coliseum ranked because the Twenty ninth-best house run park for right-handed batters. We’ll see if the transfer to West Sacramento’s Sutter Well being Park offers Rooker a lift.
Keep watch over … Lawrence Butler (26): After a big-time breakout at age 23, can Butler take the subsequent step?
Schwarber has led the Phillies on this class in every of his three seasons with the membership, and his 131 dingers over that span rank behind solely Decide and Ohtani throughout the Majors.
Keep watch over … Alec Bohm (17): Statcast metrics present Bohm can sq. up the ball with the perfect of them, nevertheless it’s but to translate to greater than 20 homers in a season. At age 28, now could be the time.
Tatis hasn’t topped 25 homers in a season since shedding all of 2022 to suspension and harm, nevertheless it feels prefer it’s solely a matter of time earlier than his monstrous energy reappears. The 2024 postseason (1.000 SLG, 4 homers in seven video games) might have been a sneak preview.
Will Toronto’s 2025 chief be the large offseason addition to its lineup (Santander), or the franchise cornerstone in his remaining 12 months earlier than reaching free company (Guerrero)? The previous is coming off a career-high 44 homers (11 greater than his earlier finest), whereas the latter tied for the MLB lead with 48 in 2021 however has not approached that determine since.
The Polar Bear is again in Queens and able to lead the Mets in house runs for the seventh consecutive season … or is he? The brand new star on the town, Juan Soto (34), might need one thing to say about that. However both manner, Alonso would take over because the franchise’s all-time chief with no less than 27 massive flies.
Keep watch over … Francisco Alvarez (22): Whereas Mark Vientos broke out in 2024, Alvarez noticed his energy manufacturing crater. He’s nonetheless simply 23, nevertheless, with loads of thump in his bat.
Alvarez has been as constant as anybody, hitting between 31 and 37 homers in every of his first 4 full MLB seasons. It will be no shock to see him lastly attain the 40 plateau, although.
Braves: Matt Olson (34)2024 chief: Marcell Ozuna (39)
Olson misplaced 25 house runs from 2023 (54) to ‘24 (29) regardless of taking part in in 162 video games for the third straight season. He’s certainly one of a number of Braves hitters hoping to rebound from accidents and/or underperformance in ‘25.
O’Neill is now in Baltimore, which leaves Devers as the favourite. Devers appeared to be headed for his fourth 30-homer marketing campaign in 2024 however went deep simply 5 occasions in 54 video games after the All-Star break to complete with 28.
Keep watch over … Trevor Story (17): Boston’s lefty-heavy lineup is in dire want of some right-handed energy. Can that come from Story, whose Sox tenure has been decimated by harm?
Henderson took a large step ahead in 2024, mashing 37 house runs as a 23-year-old shortstop. With Santander now in Toronto, it turns into much more essential that Henderson again up that efficiency in 2025.
Rangers: Jake Burger (31)2024 chief: Corey Seager (30)
Burger considerably quietly launched 63 house runs for the White Sox and Marlins over the previous two seasons. Traded from Miami to Texas in December, he now has an opportunity to assist a Rangers lineup that hit 57 fewer homers in 2024 than throughout its ‘23 championship season.
Keep watch over … Wyatt Langford (23): A prime prospect heading into 2024, he hit eight homers and slugged .610 within the remaining month of his rookie season.
No hitter had a much bigger hole than Witt final season between his anticipated house run whole (38.3, per Statcast) and his precise whole. In fact, there are three Royals within the prime 5 of that listing, which displays the truth that though Kauffman Stadium is an efficient place to hit basically — Witt slashed .382/.441/.676 there in 2024 — it’s not an excellent house run park.
Keep watch over … Salvador Perez (26): Now getting into his age-35 season — and within the remaining assured 12 months of his contract — Perez is 44 homers behind George Brett’s franchise report of 317.
The final time Ramírez didn’t lead the Guardians in homers was 2019, when he completed fourth behind Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor and Roberto Perez. Santana is now again in Cleveland, however neither he nor anybody else within the Guardians lineup is projected to strategy J-Ram.
Keep watch over … Jhonkensy Noel (15): “Huge Christmas” should earn an on a regular basis function, and there are massive query marks in his sport. However the 23-year-old’s energy is totally for actual.
No Cubs participant has reached the 30-homer mark since 2019 (Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber). Chicago traded for Tucker exactly as a result of he will be the kind of elite hitter this lineup has been lacking in recent times.
With one other one in 2025, Raleigh would be a part of Corridor of Famers Johnny Bench and Mike Piazza as the one catchers with no less than three 30-homer campaigns by age 28.
Angels: Mike Trout (28)2024 chief: Taylor Ward (25)
Trout is projected for as many homers as he managed within the earlier two seasons mixed (28). In fact, it’s all about well being for Trout. The Angels hope a transfer to proper subject will assist.
Keep watch over … Jo Adell (23): As soon as a top-10 prospect, Adell could also be operating out of probabilities, however the elite bat pace and energy are nonetheless there if he can harness them.
Caminero is 21, with seven Main League homers to his identify. Regardless, he’s slated to start out at third base and hit in the midst of the Rays’ lineup, and the projections foresee a direct influence.
Keep watch over … Christopher Morel (22): Few batters whiff extra, however few barrel it extra usually after they do join.
What the projections don’t account for is the chance that if Robert is hitting effectively sufficient to steer the 2025 White Sox in house runs, he simply may discover himself taking cuts for a distinct workforce by the Commerce Deadline.
Chapman’s first season in San Francisco was so successful that the workforce inked him to a six-year extension in September. He’s hit precisely 27 homers in three of the previous 4 seasons.
Keep watch over … Heliot Ramos (22): He destroyed left-handed pitching in his first full season (.750 SLG) however might want to hit righties higher (.387) to take the subsequent step.
Pirates: Oneil Cruz (26)2024 chief: Bryan Reynolds (24)
In a league that features the likes of Decide, Ohtani and Giancarlo Stanton, it was Cruz who recorded every of the 4 highest exit velocities of 2024, throughout 120 mph. His ceiling stays sky excessive.
Keep watch over … Joey Bart (12): Issues by no means labored out in San Francisco for the No. 2 general decide within the 2018 Draft, however he discovered new life in Pittsburgh final season.
Twins: Royce Lewis (26)2024 chief: Carlos Santana (23)
Three of the Twins’ prime 4 projected house run hitters — Lewis, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa — all face the identical query: Can they keep wholesome sufficient to place up numbers that match their expertise?
Keep watch over … Matt Wallner (22): His contact high quality is on the prime of the size, and he raked after coming back from the Minors final July (.282/.386/.559 in 62 video games).
Regardless of calling Coors Subject house, the Rockies haven’t gotten a 30-homer season from any hitter since 2019. Toglia got here fairly shut final 12 months (25 HR) regardless of taking part in solely 116 video games.
Keep watch over … Nolan Jones (16): He was one of many out-of-nowhere stars of 2023, however struggled mightily by an injury-plagued ‘24.
Marte pummeled precisely as many homers from the appropriate facet of the plate (18) because the left facet in 2024, regardless of logging 118 fewer at-bats there. His profession SLG is greater than 100 factors larger in opposition to southpaws (.539).
Keep watch over … Pavin Smith (10): Certainly one of 15 gamers to notch a three-homer sport in 2024, Smith may seize a extra common function in 2025 with Joc Pederson departing for Texas.
With Adames now in San Francisco, the Brewers will hope Hoskins may also help decide up the slack. He did homer 26 occasions final season after lacking all of 2023 on account of harm, however his general productiveness was down significantly from his Philadelphia days.
Keep watch over … Jackson Chourio (25): It’s hardly going out on a limb to foretell an enormous season from Chourio after he went 20-20 as a 20-year-old rookie.
As productive as he was, there may be little doubt that De La Cruz was solely scratching the floor of his immense expertise as a 22-year-old final 12 months. A major energy spike in 2025 could be no shock.
Keep watch over … Christian Encarnacion-Strand (16): A giant-time energy hitter within the Minors, he confirmed promise in Cincinnati in 2023, earlier than a hand fracture worn out most of his ‘24 season.
Cardinals: Nolan Gorman (25)2024 chief: Paul Goldschmidt (22)
Energy has been Gorman’s calling card since earlier than the Cardinals drafted him nineteenth general in 2018. It blossomed in 2023, when Gorman knocked 27 homers in 119 video games at age 23, however like fellow bat-first prospect Jordan Walker, 2024 introduced an enormous step again, together with a visit again to the Minors. St. Louis is hoping its younger bats clarify progress in ‘25.
The primary factor holding again each of those left-handed hitters relating to compiling massive house run totals is going through left-handed pitching. Detroit has closely platooned Carpenter, and whereas Greene has fared higher in opposition to southpaws, his splits are nonetheless vital.
Keep watch over … Colt Keith (16): He slugged .552 within the Minors in 2023 and confirmed flashes of that energy as a 22-year-old rookie.
Keep watch over … Kyle Stowers (18): This might be both Stowers or Connor Norby. Each got here from the Orioles in final summer time’s Trevor Rogers commerce and should not have any scarcity of alternatives to thrive with the Fish.
Nationals: James Wooden (21)2024 chief: CJ Abrams (20)
In his 79-game 2024 debut, the 21-year-old Wooden greater than held his personal in opposition to massive league pitching regardless of a 55% floor ball price. If he can raise the ball extra in 2025, the outcomes might be scary.
Keep watch over … Dylan Crews (16): Wooden isn’t Washington’s solely thrilling younger outfielder, with Crews an NL Rookie of the 12 months contender two years after being drafted second general.
