We’ve picked out the seven highest-ranked receiver prospects on the trade consensus massive board and ranked them by their 2024 burn price. That’s our measurement of how usually a focused receiver sheds his defender and places himself in place to make a profitable play.
The 2025 NFL Draft class isn’t overflowing with elite huge receiver prospects in the identical method the 2024 class did.
There have been seven wideouts picked within the first spherical final yr, and this yr’s draft in all probability received’t get greater than 5, even in case you embrace Colorado’s two-way celebrity Travis Hunter as a receiver.
There’s nonetheless a talented crop of 2025 NFL Draft prospects there for the selecting, although.
I’ve picked out the seven highest-ranked prospects on the draft trade consensus massive board and ranked them right here by their 2024 burn price, Opta Analyst’s measurement of how usually a focused receiver sheds the defender protecting him and places himself in place to make a profitable play.
Burn price doesn’t inform us all the pieces a few huge receiver, nevertheless it gives a superb window into the quarterback-independent talent of getting open. I’ve used the burn price as a top-line rating and added deeper notes on every receiver’s faculty efficiency.
1. Matthew Golden, Texas (72.9% Burn Charge)
Of the consensus seven high huge receiver prospects within the draft, Golden is the one who had the burn-iest season in 2024. Taking part in in opposition to robust competitors within the SEC and the Faculty Soccer Playoff, Golden didn’t simply have a best-in-class burn price amongst these wideouts but additionally posted a 47.1% massive play price to steer them. (Huge play price is the measurement of how usually a focused receiver generated a 20-plus-yard burn or a landing on a burn.)
Golden’s common depth of goal was 13.0 yards downfield, and he was sure-handed as soon as the ball obtained to him: He dropped one ball on 85 targets. Our game-charters tracked Golden at 8 for 9 in contested catch makes an attempt, an extremely excessive determine that led the category.
Would I take Golden over McMillan primarily based on his collegiate profession? Most likely not. Golden was in a gifted Texas offense with a stable group of talent gamers round him, whereas McMillan was the one recreation on the town for the Arizona offense. However Golden’s effectivity and explosiveness are awfully engaging, and that’s earlier than you even get to his 4.29-second 40-yard sprint on the NFL Scouting Mix.
2. Tre Harris, Ole Miss (71.8%)
Harris is a standout in one in every of our metrics particularly: burn yards per route run. He averaged 6.2, almost double the typical of the highest seven huge receiver prospects. Harris ran 192 routes in 2024 and posted 56 burns of defenders, getting himself a mean of 6.2 “burn yards” for every route. It’s a method of claiming that when Harris burned his man, he turned it into a number of yards.
How’d he do this? Harris averaged 7.9 yards after the catch, simply the very best of those wideouts. I believe that’s principally due to how open Lane Kiffin and Co. managed to get him.
Harris averaged 0.197 missed or damaged tackles per contact, a below-average price for this group, suggesting his large run-after-catch numbers additionally had lots to do with Ole Miss scheming him into the open subject within the first place.
3. Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State (69.4%)
Jeremiah Smith rendered Egbuka the very best No. 2 wideout in latest faculty soccer historical past. Egbuka would have been the standard-bearer for a minimum of 128 groups, although, and put up good all-around numbers. Smith was Ohio State’s deep menace and Egbuka was its short-area model, averaging 7.9 yards of goal depth in comparison with the freshman phenom’s 12.7.
Egbuka’s reliability (simply two drops) and propensity to run closer-in polished routes led to him posting a barely increased goal share (28.9%) than Smith, one thing which may shock even individuals who watched a number of Buckeyes video games throughout their run to the nationwide championship. Egbuka was open on 80.6% of his targets. Smith, getting extra consideration, was open on simply 69.5% of his.
All of that raises attention-grabbing questions on what Egbuka’s life will likely be like within the NFL. Egbuka just isn’t a classically sized slot receiver at 6-foot-1, 202 kilos, neither is he a downfield burner who will run previous all people. He’s, nonetheless, a producer, and a few group ought to discover a sensible strategy to deploy him.
4. Elic Ayomanor, Stanford (66.1%)
Ayomanor’s most well-known faculty efficiency got here in 2023. He matched up in opposition to an exhausted Travis Hunter at cornerback (extra on him shortly) and slam-dunked the long run high decide and different Colorado defenders all through the night time en path to a 13-catch, 294-yard breakout in a double time beyond regulation win for the Cardinal.
Ayomanor by no means obtained a lot due as probably the greatest gamers in faculty soccer, however he was a cash participant in prime-time moments. In 2024, he principally received a recreation for Stanford by beating an overmatched Syracuse cornerback on the most important play of the sport to arrange a decisive subject aim.
Ayomanor prefers to go after massive chunks. He was lifeless final amongst these receivers in yards after the catch (3.5) and first in common depth of goal (14.2 yards). He was the least sure-handed of those seven huge receivers in 2024, with 5 drops and a 0.875 catch ranking that trailed the group’s 0.934 common on a 0-1 scale.
His contested catch price was 60%, which for this group was a hair beneath common. (Not that this space just isn’t a power of Ayomanor. This class of huge receivers simply has a number of contested catch artists.)
5. Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona (63.2%)
McMillan will in all probability be the primary receiver chosen within the draft. He was third within the FBS with 1,319 receiving yards, and he was environment friendly regardless of each defensive coordinator within the Huge 12 understanding QB Noah Fifita had little or no curiosity in throwing the ball to anybody aside from No. 4.
He averaged 13.0 yards when it comes to depth of goal, tied for second-most among the many high seven huge receiver prospects, and put up his numbers in a troublesome atmosphere with defenses double-teaming him on what usually felt like each snap.
McMillan’s 71.4% open price is the bottom of this group, however no severe particular person thinks that’s as a result of McMillan can’t get open. As soon as he had the ball in his palms, he averaged 0.286 missed or damaged tackles pressured per contact, solely trailing the following two gamers on this rating.
I wouldn’t fear a lot concerning the lackluster burn price; he nonetheless completed with the fifth-most complete burns within the FBS.
6. Travis Hunter, Colorado (60.2%)
Hunter could or could not play huge receiver within the NFL, and his two-way workload in faculty makes him an apples-to-oranges comparability to everybody else on this record. Hunter was an amazing faculty receiver and received the Biletnikoff Award in 2024, however I believe his cornerback exploits and basic Superman vibe made just a few individuals overstate his pure huge receiver recreation only a bit.
He was merely an elite, No. 1 faculty receiver, not, in my view, the very best cross catcher in the entire nation. That was Ohio State’s Smith, and you could possibly even make a cogent case for Bowling Inexperienced tight finish Harold Fannin Jr.
Nonetheless, Hunter can ball at wideout. Of notice, his 0.296 missed or damaged tackles per contact had been the second most among the many seven high huge receiver prospects. Hunter was a bit higher at shaking defenders together with his fast toes after he had the ball than beforehand, and that makes some sense given his common goal depth of 10.3 yards – loads deep down the sphere, however not a lot by the requirements of this group, which averaged 11.4.
7. Luther Burden III, Missouri (58.2%)
What’s Burden doing on the backside of this record? It’s an attention-grabbing query. Ask any faculty soccer fan to call probably the most electrical route runners within the sport over the previous two years, and Burden’s identify will come up rapidly. He definitely doesn’t really feel just like the seventh-best wideout in his draft class at burning defensive backs. However some context about Missouri’s offense may help clarify what we’re seeing right here.
Mizzou didn’t prefer to air the ball out a lot when concentrating on Burden. His common depth of goal was 8.9 yards, a bit lower than the nationwide common for huge receivers of 9.1. For a participant of his expertise, that’s a bit stunning. However Mizzou had a restricted (and generally injured) quarterback in Brady Cook dinner, and the Tigers made a dedication that they’d prefer to get the ball into Burden’s palms comparatively rapidly and let him do his toasting of man protection after he already caught it.
Burden’s burn price is low, however his 86.1% open price leads this group of receivers. (There’s a correlation between a shallower depth of goal and being open extra usually, as you would possibly count on.) Burden’s 0.429 missed or damaged tackles per contact is sort of double this group’s common and about triple the nationwide common for receivers.
Finally, Burden wasn’t that environment friendly in 2024 in comparison with the opposite names on this record. His 7.7 anticipated yards per goal lagged the a lot larger totals of his deeper route-running friends. Within the NFL, Burden’s coordinator would possibly really feel extra freedom to make use of him expansively as a downfield goal. I hope we get to see that, as a result of a Burden who’s allowed to run deep routes is a scary Burden.
Ask South Carolina, or seek the advice of his 83.3% contested catch price final season.
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