After a gap weekend devoid of upsets, all of the No. 1 seeds are nonetheless standing within the males’s NCAA Event bracket. How might they go down within the Candy 16?
The primary weekend of the 2025 NCAA Event featured some thrilling finishes and nice particular person performances. However “March Insanity,” it was not.
All 4 No. 1 seeds are left, with solely Florida dealing with a real scare within the first two rounds. All 16 groups left are from an influence convention. Just one staff remaining is beneath a No. 6 seed, and that’s double-digit seed Arkansas, an SEC staff that’s coached by John Calipari, which hardly seems like an underdog just like VCU or Loyola Chicago in years previous.
Whether or not this 12 months’s event is indicative of what’s to return or only a significantly chalky 12 months, the dearth of upsets has offered the No. 1 seeds with some powerful Candy 16 video games.
However Auburn, Duke, Florida and Houston entered the event as the highest seeds for a motive. All are favored by a minimum of 6.5 factors at most sports activities books heading into Thursday and Friday.
Every of their opponents goes to need to do greater than merely play nicely to win. Not one of the groups on this 12 months’s subject is ideal, so the underdogs should make the most of a key benefit to win.
Let’s break down one of the simplest ways for every of the groups which might be taking part in in opposition to a No. 1 seed to assault, and reveal our March Insanity bracket predictions for every area.
Extra From Opta Analyst
South Area: Michigan vs. Auburn
Defend the Ball
Michigan has been a wonderful staff all season, however turnovers have been the Achilles heel for the Wolverines.
Among the many 79 main convention groups, Michigan has dedicated the second-most turnovers per recreation with 13.9. Turnovers had been a difficulty within the Wolverines’ first-round matchup in opposition to UC San Diego, however they escaped with a 68-65 win.
Within the second spherical, Michigan superior to the Candy 16 bracket by caring for the ball with solely 9 turnovers in a 91-79 win over Texas A&M. That tied for the third-fewest turnovers Michigan has had this season.
The Wolverines will want one other effort like that in opposition to Auburn, which is an elite defensive staff however is barely round league-average for a serious convention staff at forcing turnovers. Texas A&M was higher at forcing turnovers this season than Auburn, so Michigan has the flexibility to carry onto the ball. If the Wolverines don’t, it’s going to be actually laborious to tug off an upset contemplating Auburn has an elite protection even with out producing plenty of turnovers.
All people Eats
Even in Auburn’s 5 losses, it held every opponent’s prime scorer in verify. Solely Duke’s Cooper Flagg exceeded 20 factors and solely Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr. shot higher than 40% from the sector.
Groups have needed to transfer the ball round and take open photographs from whoever will get them in opposition to Auburn. That’s one thing the Wolverines are completely snug doing.
Vladislav Goldin is Michigan’s main scorer, however 5 gamers common a minimum of 9.4 factors per recreation and the Wolverines are snug letting any of them take a bunch of photographs in a row.
Equally, nobody on Michigan is within the prime 30 within the nation in assists per recreation, however Tre Donaldson and Danny Wolf each common over 3.5 and 7 gamers common a minimum of 1.0. The Wolverines have a versatile offensive strategy and may be capable of use that flexibility to maintain Auburn guessing.
South Area Win Likelihood
No. 1 Auburn over No. 5 Michigan (63.6%)
No. 2 Michigan State over No. 6 Ole Miss (60.0%)
East Area: Arizona vs. Duke
Second Probabilities
Duke has appeared each bit like a No. 1 in TRACR in the course of the event, with blowout victories in opposition to Mount St. Mary’s and Baylor, and Flagg’s ankle wanting simply superb.
Arizona is probably going going to need to win a shootout to maneuver on, because the Wildcats rank solely thirty third in defensive TRACR however seventh in offensive TRACR. To attain quite a bit in opposition to Duke, they should get plenty of second-chance factors.
The Wildcats are tied for the Twelfth-most offensive rebounds per recreation amongst energy convention groups with 12.3 and have averaged 14.0 of their two event video games. Duke has been common in holding opponents off the glass this season and is coming off a recreation through which Baylor grabbed 18 offensive rebounds in comparison with the Blue Devils’ three. A few of it’s because Duke barely missed photographs, however the Blue Devils will be had on the offensive glass.
Arizona ought to put strain on Flagg to field out each possession to attempt to generate additional possibilities and tire out the freshman sensation.
No Love Misplaced
Two weeks in the past, we highlighted how Arizona would go so far as Caleb Love might take them.
It proved to be true in opposition to Oregon within the second spherical, when the Wildcats wanted each one in every of Love’s 29 factors to place away the Geese. Love hit 10 of his 18 photographs and 5 of his seven 3-point makes an attempt.
Now, he’ll must do it once more in opposition to a staff that’s conversant in him from his North Carolina days. For what it’s value, Love was 4-3 vs. the Blue Devils as a Tar Heel, together with his 28-point efficiency in a Ultimate 4 showdown in 2022 being the spotlight. So he’s confirmed his value in opposition to Duke within the NCAA Event earlier than.
For Arizona to have an opportunity for an upset, Love should be at his perfect. If he has one in every of his poor taking pictures nights, the Wildcats simply don’t have sufficient firepower to compete.
East Area Win Likelihood
No. 1 Duke over No. 4 Arizona (65.3%)
No. 2 Alabama over No. 6 BYU (67.2%)
West Area: Maryland vs. Florida
One and Executed
Maryland must mimic the rebounding effort put forth by UConn in Florida’s second-round matchup.
The Huskies, looking for a 3rd straight nationwide championship, practically pulled off an upset partially as a result of they held the Gators to a manageable 12 offensive rebounds whereas grabbing 14 of their very own.
Florida’s been elite at grabbing its personal missed photographs (third-most offensive rebounds per recreation amongst main conferences), but it surely’s struggled to seize their opponents’ misses (permitting the sixth-most offensive rebounds per recreation amongst main convention groups). If the Terrapins can win the offensive rebounding battle, it’ll go a great distance towards tilting the sport of their favor.
Inside Males
The massive males for Maryland should seize plenty of these offensive rebounds, but it surely additionally has plenty of different work to tug off the upset.
Derik Queen’s buzzer beater in opposition to Colorado State could have been his introduction to informal followers, however followers of the Massive Ten know he’s been probably the most productive freshmen within the nation.
In at present’s school basketball, it’s actually troublesome to make an offense work with two non-shooting bigs, however Maryland has executed precisely that with Julian Reese and Queen.
It helps that Queen is right-handed and Reese left-handed, so they like completely different blocks. Each are nice scorers within the put up and prepared passers who work the high-low recreation successfully.
What actually makes it work is Queen’s potential off the dribble from the highest of the important thing. He’s nonetheless not 3-point shooter, however defenses don’t wish to depart him alone on the perimeter as a result of if he will get a full head of steam, he’s inconceivable to cease. He’s wonderful at adjusting photographs midair close to the rim and might pull up from midrange off the dribble.
Since groups are hesitant to assist off Queen, Reese usually goes to work with out additional assist bothering him. He’s a wonderful isolation put up scorer who has showcased his potential to attain effectively within the event (33 factors on 59.1% taking pictures in two video games mixed). If he can proceed to be an issue in opposition to Florida’s powerful inside protection, Maryland can have an actual shot.
West Area Win Likelihood
No. 1 Florida over No. 4 Maryland (62.8%)
No. 3 Texas Tech over No. 10 Arkansas (61.6%)
Midwest Area: Purdue vs. Houston
Flip the Quantity Up
Purdue and Houston are related as groups that shoot a low quantity of 3-pointers however with an amazing proportion.
The Boilermakers must discover a strategy to generate extra 3s in opposition to Houston’s powerful protection, which permits a good variety of 3-point makes an attempt per recreation however has the Twelfth-best 3-point proportion allowed amongst main convention groups.
Which may look like a motive for Purdue to keep away from the 3-point line, but it surely’s not like there are every other simple methods to generate offense in opposition to Houston. The Boilermakers need to belief that Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, who’re elite shooters, can drill semi-contested 3-point seems to be. Towards Houston, they’re the very best photographs a staff goes to get.
Restrict Second Probabilities
Like Florida, Houston thrives on the offensive glass. The Cougars have the Tenth-most offensive rebounds per recreation amongst main convention groups. In contrast to Florida, Houston doesn’t have issues on the defensive glass and is nicely above common at stopping second-chance alternatives for its opponents.
Offensive rebounds aren’t an enormous a part of Purdue’s recreation, so the Boilermakers should make a concentrated effort to maintain Houston from getting second-chance factors. If Houston ends the sport with a number of additional shot makes an attempt, Purdue gained’t have a lot of an opportunity.
Midwest Area Win Likelihood
No. 1 Houston over No. 4 Purdue (69.2%)
No. 2 Tennessee over No. 3 Kentucky (56.5%)
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