With Pep Guardiola acknowledging that transitions are rising in significance, we look at how briskly and direct assaults are influencing Premier League soccer greater than ever earlier than.
Transitions have lengthy been the enemy of Pep Guardiola.
Of all the numerous tactical elements of the sport, they’ve at all times been the factor he fears most. For a lot of of his adversaries through the years, in the meantime, they’ve proved a really helpful weapon.
Again when Guardiola was first establishing himself and his Johan Cruyff-inspired model of tiki-taka, juego-de-posición soccer at Barcelona, José Mourinho was on the peak of his powers. For Mourinho – in stark distinction to Guardiola – having the ball was a threat. Not having it was a energy that could possibly be capitalised on with fast transitions.
The 2 managers each loved vastly profitable durations in control of the very best groups on the earth, profitable the largest competitions on supply, all whereas enjoying utterly completely different kinds of soccer. In Guardiola’s 4 years in control of Barcelona, he gained La Liga three years out of 4 and the Champions League twice.
Mourinho’s defence-first, transition-based sport wasn’t fairly as profitable however he was chargeable for the one time Guardiola didn’t win La Liga whereas at Barcelona in addition to one among his two Champions League failures (together with Roberto Di Matteo’s shock win with Chelsea in 2012). In Guardiola and Mourinho, two reverse extremes dominated the highest of the sport on the time.
And whereas Mourinho impressed a smaller college of managers throughout these years, Guardiola utterly revolutionised the sport. His important affect continued after he moved to Manchester Metropolis in 2016, and the sport in England is now utterly completely different to when he arrived.
Again then, he was ridiculed for insisting his staff play out from the again and watching on as his defenders constantly performed themselves into hassle. As of late, nearly each staff takes an honest proportion of their goal-kicks brief whereas within the season earlier than he arrived, 74.2% of goal-kicks ended within the opposition half. This season, that determine is down at 38.6%.
Guardiola isn’t solely accountable however he has performed an enormous position in how a lot the sport has modified over the previous decade. Slowly however absolutely, as he gained every thing he might in England, everybody has adopted go well with. It’s now completely regular for League Two groups, and even these down at beginner stage, to cross the ball out from the again. Over his almost 9 years within the Premier League, he has influenced the sport greater than anybody else.
Transitions and direct attacking have naturally remained an vital a part of Premier League soccer, and there have at all times been groups who’ve had pleasure enjoying on the break. The antithesis of the Guardiola approach has by no means solely gone away.
However that fashion of play has by no means earlier than had the affect that it does in 2024-25. This season greater than some other, counter-attacking soccer has confirmed much more problematic to Guardiola and Metropolis, who’re enduring an unthinkably poor marketing campaign. Solely Southampton, West Ham (each 38) and Brentford (35) have conceded extra photographs from quick breaks – outlined as fast counter-attacks in opposition to an opposition defence which is at the very least partly unsorted ranging from the defensive half – than Metropolis have this season (34). They’ve already misplaced 9 league video games – the joint most Guardiola has ever suffered in a season, and we’re nonetheless 9 video games from the top of this one.
The affect and success of groups enjoying a extra vertical, direct fashion of soccer has led to questions on the place the sport is heading. It’s one thing Guardiola himself recognised in an interview with TNT Sports activities earlier this yr.
“At this time, fashionable soccer is the best way Bournemouth, Newcastle, Brighton and Liverpool play,” the Metropolis supervisor stated. “Trendy soccer shouldn’t be positional.”
Bournemouth have had an excessive amount of pleasure this season with their high-pressing, high-octane soccer that includes them seeking to drive turnovers excessive up the pitch and getting the ball ahead to threaten aim as shortly as potential, whereas Nottingham Forest are flying excessive in third, heading for the Champions League whereas enjoying an excessive counter-attacking sport. They’ve the bottom common possession share (39.5%) within the Premier League this season.
In reality, quick breaks are up throughout the board. The 2024-25 marketing campaign is seeing considerably extra shot-ending quick breaks per sport (1.84) than some other season on report (since 2006-07), and extra of them are ending in targets, too (0.3 per sport).
This season can be producing the best proportion of all photographs coming from quick breaks on report (10.2%) in addition to the best proportion of targets (7.1%). These figures dropped as little as 3.7% and 1.4% respectively in 2015-16, and as lately as 2021-22 had been down at 5.0% and three.7%. The use and effectiveness of counter-attacking soccer is at an all-time excessive in 2024-25.
Maybe it’s a predictable improvement. As possession soccer turned so dominant, perhaps there was at all times going to be a response. Transition-based, quick and direct soccer was by no means fairly utterly dormant, however the numbers show there was a drop in its affect on the high stage as an increasing number of groups sought to copy the Guardiola fashion of play. However as possession turned extra vital, so did low-block defending.
Sitting again and absorbing stress was, for groups of extra restricted sources than the likes of Metropolis, the one option to win.
Defending deep has at all times been an vital a part of soccer, however because the groups who dominate the ball turned richer, higher and stronger, the lesser groups needed to turn into much more organised and well-drilled. Metropolis’s brilliance meant opponents knew the slightest slip or permitting the smallest hole could be deadly. And when you’d gone behind in opposition to them, discovering a approach again into the sport was much more tough.
It meant transitions turned much more vital. For groups apart from the actually elite to unlock the very best low-block groups, they needed to assault at tempo shortly after profitable the ball to catch them in a disorganised state. The standard of those transitions has skyrocketed, and Guardiola has even admitted this season to being “somewhat bit scared to play these transitional video games.”
Bournemouth and their supervisor Andoni Iraola have been roundly praised for his or her performances this season. They press excessive, they usually press with depth, main the Premier League for counter-pressures (a stress that begins inside two seconds of the opponent gaining possession), with 1,822, or 62.8 per sport, and photographs following a excessive turnover (profitable the ball inside 40 metres of the opposition’s aim line), with 57.
They don’t sit deep and break over lengthy distances like Forest – counter-attacking and transitional assaults aren’t precisely the identical, however the techniques are alike in that they each contain attacking at tempo when a staff wins the ball. Solely Forest common faster assaults up the pitch (2.08 metre per second) in Premier League video games this season than Bournemouth (2.05 m/s).
Iraola has spoken brazenly about how he needs his gamers’ first regarded as getting the ball ahead, with scoring a aim the rapid intention.
“The very first thing we attempt to do once we recuperate the ball is play to the quantity 9,” Iraola informed Sky Sports activities final yr. “As a result of that’s often the second when the opponent is much less nicely positioned and you will discover higher areas.”
It seems to be working. Bournemouth have had extra photographs in transition (196) than some other staff within the Premier League this season and are within the hunt to qualify for Europe for the primary time. They shouldn’t be judged on a poor latest run of type through which they’ve didn’t win 5 of their final six, and will as a substitute be rated on the truth that, regardless of being extensively tipped to wrestle earlier than the beginning of the season, are nonetheless simply 5 factors off the highest 4.
It’s removed from simply Bournemouth taking advantage of transitions, although. Runaway league leaders Liverpool are most likely essentially the most multi-faceted staff within the Premier League; they dominate possession in opposition to nearly anybody, however they’re additionally the very best transitional staff within the league.
They rank second to Bournemouth for photographs from transitions (179), however are – very like within the league desk itself – approach out in entrance for targets from transitions. Their whole of 31 targets on the transition is at the very least 10 greater than some other staff within the high flight.
However it’s not simply outright totals they high the rankings for. In addition they come out on high for the proportion of their photographs which have come from quick breaks (11%), whereas solely Wolves (20%) have scored the next proportion of their targets from such conditions (19%).
Their 13 targets from quick breaks in 2024-25 are greater than some other staff has had in any season on report (since 2006-07), as too are their 56 photographs from quick breaks, and – a reminder – they nonetheless have 9 video games of the season remaining. The soon-to-be Premier League champions are utilizing transitions and fast breaks upfield higher than any staff has in latest reminiscence.
In an period dominated by the possession play of Guardiola and Metropolis, fast-break soccer is having a much bigger say this season than we’re used to.
So, why is counter-attacking proving so fruitful?
There’s an argument that enjoying that approach is much less dangerous than utilizing a excessive line and leaving area to assault in behind. A courageous excessive line definitely hasn’t labored for Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham, who’ve misplaced 15 of 29 video games this season and are nearer to a relegation battle than Europe. And the numbers counsel that groups who use counter-attacks successfully are more durable to beat, one thing Spurs most positively usually are not.
On the 78 events of a staff scoring at the very least one fast-break aim in a Premier League sport this season, simply 13 have misplaced – a loss charge of 16.7%.
However when a staff scores at the very least one aim however none of them have come from a fast-break, that loss charge jumps to 26.1%.
So, in different phrases, a staff that performs on the break and manages to attain is tougher to beat than a staff that scores however doesn’t play on the break. Maybe specializing in shutting out the opposition fairly than pushing for extra targets is a greater concept as of late.
There’s additionally the truth that probabilities from quick breaks are usually of upper high quality. The typical anticipated targets worth of a fast-break shot this season is 0.17 xG, larger than photographs from open play (0.12 xG) and people from set-pieces (0.09 xG). The general common xG of all photographs in Premier League video games this season is 0.11 xG.
So, a staff that creates an opportunity from a quick break is extra prone to rating that likelihood, and in the event that they rating that likelihood, they’re then much less prone to lose than a staff that scores from one other type of alternative.
This isn’t a wholly truthful evaluation, as a result of chances are high more durable to return by on the break – they’re rarer and tougher to forge – so the pattern dimension is smaller. However, the numbers assist to point out that there’s justification for taking advantage of quick and direct assaults. As does the league desk, with Liverpool and Forest each within the high three.
However is that this the top of the period of domination for Guardiola’s positional play? Is it an indication of issues to return, or is it only a one-off, an anomaly of a season, with Metropolis struggling throughout a interval of, nicely, transition, as they bring about in a number of latest gamers to cut back the age of their squad?
It’s unimaginable to reply that query with any certainty, however whereas it might take a really courageous individual to foretell the continued downfall of one among soccer’s most adorned and profitable dynasties, there does appear to be an acceptance there’s a larger place in elite soccer for a concentrate on transitions and vertical soccer than lately. If even Guardiola himself is admitting it, there should be some fact in it, proper?
It may additionally be true, nonetheless, that followers of the Premier League take pleasure in watching the fast-paced nature of transitional assaults. They discover it simpler to welcome that model of soccer than groups who play one thing just like Guardiola’s loss of life by passing.
So, when Bournemouth succeed below a supervisor who brazenly admits his dislike of what he calls “safety passes” – precisely the type of protected, possession-securing cross that Guardiola’s philosophy requires – they’re open to extra of it. And once you see a staff enjoying an thrilling model of soccer and doing nicely with it, it’s simple to just accept the concept that is the place soccer is – or ought to be – heading.
The historical past of soccer techniques has lengthy adopted a cyclical path, and we could be coming again round to one thing resembling the heyday of Mourinho.
Equally seemingly, although, is that soccer is now so expert that the standout groups must excel in each side of the sport. To dominate the Premier League this season, Liverpool needed to be the very best vertical staff, and future champions could must be, too.
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