In case you’re positive about something within the NFL, simply wait a couple of weeks. Heck, in the event you have been positive about something from Week 7’s Giants-Broncos recreation, ready a couple of minutes appeared to work simply as properly.
After six months of ready for the NFL to return over the offseason, what we see within the first few weeks of motion feels stickier and extra significant than the rest, and we kind opinions shortly.
In fact, we should always know that what occurs in September does not all the time imply very a lot by the point we get to the postseason. Patrick Mahomes trying like a celebrity within the first few weeks of the 2018 season? Vital. The Eagles hitting their bye at 2-2 a 12 months in the past after dropping to the Kirk Cousins-led Falcons and getting blown out by the Bucs? Nope. Philly casually went 16-1 the remainder of the way in which, successful by a mean of practically two touchdowns per contest.
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Everybody has their opinions and emotions about what we noticed over the primary month of the 2025 season. What number of of these ideas really ring true as we hit the center of October? Some issues that appeared apparent or important have light into the September void, whereas different opinions solely really feel like they’ve solidified.
Right this moment, let’s run by 4 of these September ideas and see how Week 7 impacted what we knew — or thought we knew — about a few of the NFL’s most attention-grabbing groups.
Bounce to a September take:The Chiefs’ offense was brokenThe Jaguars’ protection might help the offenseThe Colts’ offense would regressThe Payments would have a transparent path within the AFC
What we mentioned in September: “This offense is damaged.”
Properly, it was. The Chiefs seemed like a large number by their 0-2 begin, and whereas they bought their season again on observe with a 22-9 victory over the Giants in Week 3, the offense nonetheless felt nearly fully dependent upon Mahomes scrambles and out-of-structure magic. We knew issues have been going to be at the least somewhat higher as soon as Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice returned to the fold, however the Chiefs seemed like they have been going to wrestle to dwell as much as even the 2023 and 2024 editions of their offense, not to mention the halcyon days when Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have been at their peaks.
Over the previous 4 weeks? The Chiefs are fourth in EPA per play, a determine which rises to first once we take away rubbish time (these performs wherein one crew’s possibilities of successful are beneath 10%) from the equation. They’re second in factors scored per drive. And if we once more take away rubbish time drives, the Chiefs have scored touchdowns on 56% of their possessions for the reason that begin of Week 4. The league common is 26%.
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With Rice returning to the lineup for the primary time in over a 12 months Sunday after a knee harm and six-game suspension, the Chiefs lastly bought to subject the first-string offense that they had been ready to unveil for the reason that begin of 2024. Rice, Worthy and Hollywood Brown have been within the lineup collectively for the primary time. Outdoors of rookie left sort out Josh Simmons, who’s away from the crew coping with a private matter, the Chiefs had everybody on their offensive depth chart accessible in opposition to the Raiders.
The outcomes have been dramatic. Even whereas sitting Mahomes for the complete fourth quarter, the Chiefs scored 31 factors and racked up 30 first downs. The Raiders ran solely 30 performs, the second fewest by any crew in a recreation for the reason that 1970 merger. The Chiefs averaged 0.38 EPA per play with Mahomes on the sphere; that is the most effective their offense has carried out with Mahomes on the sphere in a regular-season recreation since Week 3 of the 2023 season. And this was the ninth-most-productive regular-season efficiency of the Mahomes period by that metric.
All of a sudden, the Chiefs’ offense is prospering. And whereas it is simple to chalk that as much as the return of Rice or a hapless opponent (particularly after the Raiders’ protection misplaced Maxx Crosby to an harm), this actually began again in Week 4, after they beat the Ravens 37-20. The next week in opposition to the Jaguars, Mahomes threw a pick-six on the Jacksonville purpose line, which swung that recreation towards the Jags (whom we’ll get to in a bit), however even in that loss, the Chiefs scored 28 factors and had six drives of fifty yards or extra in opposition to an excellent protection. Then, they dropped 30 factors on seven significant drives in opposition to the Lions, punting as soon as all recreation.
What has modified? Lower than you would possibly suppose. The designed run recreation has been about as environment friendly because it was, in the event you account for rubbish time. The Chiefs have not modified how typically they throw in impartial recreation scripts (quite a bit, each earlier than and after the Giants recreation). They’ve gotten higher after the catch, although not considerably so; their uncooked yards after the catch are up fairly a bit, however in taking a look at NFL Subsequent Gen Stats’ yards after catch over expectation, the Chiefs have been twenty eighth by three weeks and will not land a lot increased over the following 4 video games.
The 2 most notable variations, at the least to begin, come by the passing recreation and the work of the receivers. For one, the Chiefs’ cross catchers are doing a greater job of bringing in Mahomes’ passes. That they had a minus-6.7% catch price over expectation by three video games, the fourth-worst mark within the NFL. The one groups working a decrease price over that span have been the Titans, who simply fired their coach, and the Jaguars, who’re nonetheless a large number.
Since Week 4, that has jumped to 0.8%, which is correct across the center of the pack. The Chiefs aren’t snatching balls out of skinny air, however their receivers are holding their very own and never letting their star quarterback down.
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Jeff Saturday: Payments’ loss to Falcons a nasty signal
Jeff Saturday explains his considerations concerning the Payments after their loss to the Falcons.
The larger issue, although, is what has been lacking across the Chiefs’ receivers: defenders. Via three video games, simply over 46% of Chiefs passes have been thrown to open receivers. That determine was good for twenty second within the league. Once we think about that the Chiefs have been taking part in with out their prime two wideouts and had Mahomes attempting to suit throws to guys like Brown and Tyquan Thornton in tight quarters, the underwhelming catch price may not be an excessive amount of of a shock.
Over the previous 4 video games? That determine has risen to 62.8%, the most effective mark within the NFL.
The early-season difficulties in getting receivers open appear to be a historic outlier. Between 2018 and 2024, the Chiefs ranked no decrease than fourth within the league in open goal price in any given season. Given what number of receivers have come by Andy Reid’s offense in that span, and the way the Chiefs have developed stylistically to account for groups taking away massive performs excessive, it is exhausting to not give a good portion of the credit score for these enhancements to Mahomes. He has a tremendous means to establish pure areas with open pockets in coverages after which create explosives out of construction.
With receivers as open because the Chiefs have been over the previous 4 weeks, Kansas Metropolis is working an astronomical anticipated completion price. Per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats’ mannequin, a mean group of receivers could be anticipated to show 73.6% of Mahomes’ makes an attempt into completions over the previous month, additionally tops within the league. Offenses can run a excessive anticipated catch price by throwing the ball quick, because the Raiders are doing over that point span, with 5.1 air yards per try; however the Chiefs are averaging a good 6.7 per try.
And now, after the returns of Rice and Worthy, the Chiefs do not have a mean set of receivers. For the primary time in years, Reid can actually stretch the sphere and create not possible binds for opposing defenses. Rice bought a 2-yard rating on a faucet cross, however the different touchdowns on Sunday have been merely mismatches. Rice was remoted in opposition to oft-picked-on nook Kyu Blu Kelly for a back-shoulder TD within the second quarter. Later within the recreation, when the Raiders blitzed Mahomes and performed Cowl 0, the legendary blitz-defeating quarterback had no bother discovering Brown within the slot for a rating. These are simply straightforward completions with out a lot threat for Mahomes.
The tight ends additionally bought within the combine Sunday. A blown protection on a deep crosser led to a 44-yard catch-and-run for Kelce, whereas Noah Grey picked up 28 yards on a pretend screen-and-wheel up the sideline. The Chiefs have struggled out of 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs) this season, however that they had a 61% success price with two or extra tight ends in opposition to the Raiders, their greatest mark of the season.
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And the cross safety issues that plagued Mahomes in 2024 have not been as current this season. Over the previous month, Mahomes has handled fast pressures on simply 6% of his dropbacks, comfortably the bottom price within the league (the typical is about 15%). He is doing that whereas holding the ball at a price properly above league common, so it is not merely a product of getting the ball out quick.
With Mahomes taking sacks on simply 3% of his dropbacks over the previous month and turning the ball over simply as soon as (on that aforementioned pick-six within the Jaguars recreation), the Chiefs are emulating the Payments and changing into a optimistic play manufacturing unit. Final season, slightly below 47% of the Chiefs’ performs on first and second down have been profitable by EPA. That was ninth within the NFL.
Over the previous 4 weeks, the Chiefs are second in success price on early downs, trailing solely the Payments. Final 12 months’s crew wanted to thrive on third right down to survive, and with few explosive performs and an enormous blinking mild of an issue at left sort out, too many Chiefs drives ended in need of the top zone as a result of they could not rely on Mahomes to make it by 4 or 5 third downs with out having the play blown up from his blind aspect. Now, with each improved offensive line play and extra success on first and second down, third-and-long hasn’t been as urgent of a problem. The Chiefs confronted third down with greater than 4 yards to go simply 3 times whereas Mahomes was within the recreation Sunday.
Will all of this stick? Perhaps not fairly as considerably because it has over the previous 4 video games. The Chiefs have scored touchdowns on 12 of 14 goal-to-go conditions over that point, after going 1-for-4 over the primary three weeks of the season. Mahomes has gotten away with a dropped interception or two, together with a decide that ought to have been made by the Raiders within the second quarter on a drive that ended with Rice’s second landing of the sport.
With Rice and Worthy within the combine and Mahomes taking part in spectacular soccer, although, this appears to be like and looks like the identical Chiefs offense that has terrified the league as soon as once more.
What we mentioned in September: “The protection can maintain up a sloppy offense.”
For all of the optimism and explosive performs popping out of Jacksonville’s 4-1 begin to the season, it was fairly clear to anybody paying shut consideration that Trevor Lawrence and the offense weren’t holding up their finish of the cut price. That offense was producing the occasional massive play, however the operation merely wasn’t residing as much as life like expectations.
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Even by that 4-1 begin, the Jags led the league in procedural penalties, the form of unforced errors which have little to do with what occurs after the snap. They have been affected by unlawful shifts and false begins. The offense took delay of recreation penalties, even in essential spots or from dead-ball moments. Lawrence threw an unlawful ahead cross after crossing the road of scrimmage in Week 1 in opposition to the Panthers, then did it once more in Week 5 in opposition to the Chiefs.
On prime of that, the Jags have been sloppy with the soccer. Lawrence misplaced a fumble attempting to leap over the pile for a fourth-and-short landing in opposition to the Chiefs, solely to have the ball punched out of his arms. Brian Thomas Jr. struggled with drops, which has led to picks for Lawrence; the QB appeared to throw one brutal interception per recreation, which normally got here within the second half.
The protection lined up these issues by forcing gobs of takeaways. Turnover regression towards the imply was one of many largest causes I included the Jags as certainly one of my groups most definitely to enhance in 2025, however no person noticed Jacksonville forcing 15 takeaways by its first 5 video games. A type of takeaways grew to become a landing, as Devin Lloyd now-famously took Mahomes’ solely turnover of the previous month 99 yards the opposite means, dramatically flipping that recreation again in Jacksonville’s favor.
The opposite 14 turnovers helped create shorter fields for the Jags. Via these first 5 video games, the Jaguars had 14 drives begin on their very own 40-yard line or nearer to the opposition finish zone. These drives produced 5 touchdowns, 4 subject objectives and three failures through a missed subject purpose or fourth-down stuff. (The opposite two resulted in kneel-downs to seal up victories.) The Lions and Colts have been the one groups to begin extra typically in what’s usually thought of to be optimistic subject place.
However over these previous two losses? The Jaguars have had one quick subject, which got here in opposition to the Rams on Sunday in London. It shortly evaporated after an unlawful man downfield penalty and a 13-yard sack on a free rush wherein Lawrence did not have a sizzling reply and tried to scramble his means out of strain. As a substitute, the Jags have been knocked out of subject purpose vary and needed to punt down 21-0.
Not a lot has modified on the lengthy drives. The Jaguars have been twenty fourth in factors per possession on drives beginning inside their very own 40-yard line in the course of the 4-1 begin, they usually’re twenty seventh by that very same metric on those self same possessions over the previous two weeks. The protection hasn’t been in a position to pressure any turnovers over that span, although, and that has put the entire strain on the Jaguars’ offense to maintain lengthy, profitable drives.
That is the place the procedural penalties proceed to chunk them. The Jags have added 10 extra procedural penalties on offense to their ledger over the previous two video games, tying them for the league lead. That is with out contemplating penalties like offensive holding and unlawful blocks above the waist, the form of calls environment friendly offenses ideally keep away from as a lot as potential.
Probably the most pointless of these penalties got here in opposition to the Seahawks in Week 6. As Thomas wrestled a 50-50 ball away from Seahawks cornerback Josh Jobe for a landing within the third quarter, a flag hit the opposite aspect of the sphere, with rookie hybrid participant Travis Hunter getting flagged for being offside. The penalty did not matter a ton within the massive image, for the reason that Jaguars continued the drive and ultimately scored a landing anyway, however different much less conspicuous calls do make a distinction.
Drops, an issue plaguing the Jags seemingly since Lawrence arrived on the town, proceed to be a priority. Thomas got here underneath scrutiny earlier within the season for shrinking in tight quarters and failing to make some powerful catches. I am undecided these complaints have been utterly warranted, however I did suppose that story was behind us now. As a substitute, that is nonetheless a problem.
Thomas had three doubtlessly catchable balls fall to the bottom Sunday, together with a dig the place the cross was knocked out of his arms by a giant hit from Kamren Kinchens and an out that was practically introduced in by a leaping Thomas. And final week, Thomas did not do a adequate job of bringing in a dig thrown at his helmet, producing a three-and-out in an eight-point recreation within the fourth quarter.
The Jags have the second-worst catch price over expectation of any offense within the NFL this season, forward of solely the Bears, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. And whereas it is simple to choose on Thomas given his stardom, everyone seems to be responsible. Tim Patrick had a nasty drop in opposition to the Chiefs that ought to have produced a decide, just for three completely different Kansas Metropolis defenders to exaggeratedly whiff on catching the ball. Dyami Brown dropped a would-be landing cross that hit him within the arms in opposition to the Bengals.
When groups commit too many penalties and do not have quick fields, they find yourself inevitably needing to transform third-and-long — typically greater than as soon as on a drive — to attain factors. The Jags confronted third-and-10 or extra eight instances Sunday, with Lawrence changing a type of makes an attempt. The Jags failed on third-and-short, too; they got here up quick on a third-and-2 when a Thomas flat route picked up only one yard, on a third-and-3 Thomas drop and on a third-and-2 throw from an empty set that Lawrence sailed whereas attempting to hit backup tight finish Johnny Mundt.
Liam Coen nonetheless appears to be discovering the precise locations to suit his gamers on offense. Mundt might be not the man you need cut up out catching hitches on third down. I am fairly positive I noticed a Hunter Lengthy selection route earlier this season. The Jags began the season with Thomas working loads of in-breaking routes and struggling earlier than modifying his route tree. Hunter’s function has appeared to fluctuate from week to week, although he did have his largest recreation as a professional in London, turning 14 targets into eight catches for 101 yards and a rating. And Travis Etienne Jr., who was drafted two teaching regimes in the past for his relationship with Lawrence and skill as a cross catcher, has 14 catches for 80 yards.
There’s expertise right here, however the Jags make too many errors to reliably and constantly win video games with their offense proper now. The protection has proved its means to cleared the path, nevertheless it’s all the time going to be powerful for groups to pressure a number of takeaways each week. When the onus has fallen on the offense, the Jags have usually fallen aside this season. Till they clear issues up, that is not going to vary.
What we mentioned in September: “They’ve a transparent path to the highest seed within the AFC.”
The Payments are on what grew to become a well-timed bye this week, however after a disappointing loss to the Falcons on “Monday Night time Soccer” final week, their sudden downshift is price discussing right here.
When Buffalo rolled off a dramatic comeback win over the rival Ravens within the opener, it seemed just like the Payments have been in nice place to ensure the convention bracket would experience by Buffalo. The Chiefs would land at 0-2, the Ravens would ultimately fall all the way in which to 1-5, and the Payments had what seemed to be a really beneficiant schedule. Having to face the Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Patriots and Falcons earlier than the Week 7 bye, it seemed like Buffalo may not have a lot bother beginning 7-0. Throw in a win in opposition to Carolina on additional relaxation in Week 8, and Payments followers might envision a world the place they have been 8-0 earlier than internet hosting the Chiefs in early November.
Properly, schedules could be a humorous factor. The Payments did win their first 4 video games over that span, though the Dolphins put up a combat in Western New York in Week 3, and the Saints bought inside two factors in the course of the fourth quarter earlier than Josh Allen ultimately pulled away. A bit of sloppy, maybe, however the Payments have been stacking wins, and that is what mattered.
After which the stack fell over. The Payments could not get into prime gear in opposition to a feisty Patriots crew, and Drake Maye made a few big-time performs on the ultimate drive, which resulted in a 52-yard subject purpose by Andy Borregales that handed the Payments their first lack of the season. Every week later, the offense could not get snug whereas dealing with a Falcons crew that had been blown out by the Panthers earlier within the season, with the Payments mustering simply two scores in a 24-14 defeat. All of a sudden, 4-0 was 4-2, and the Payments have been out of the highest spot within the AFC.
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What has gone improper for the Payments? I will begin with the best potential clarification: They have been in a position to lean on a system that no person else within the league has managed to match, and that system has come undone, particularly over the previous two video games. If anybody is able to rounding again into that kind, it is the Payments, however what they have been doing was largely unprecedented in league historical past.
It is the turnovers. The offense merely by no means gave away the soccer. Between their bye week in November final 12 months and the win over the Dolphins, the Payments performed 12 video games (together with playoffs). Their offense turned the ball over precisely one time. That has by no means occurred earlier than, and it has by no means even been approached. No person else in league historical past has had a stretch of 12 video games with fewer than 4 turnovers on offense, and the crew that pulled that off was final season’s Eagles.
We dwell in an period the place turnovers are at historic lows, however NFL groups aren’t supposed to have the ability to play three months of soccer and switch the ball over one time. That interception, which got here final 12 months in opposition to the Patriots, was a third-and-16 deep ball from Allen that was picked off in the long run zone and amounted to an arm punt. The Payments primarily had not handled a significant turnover since their Week 11 recreation in opposition to the Chiefs.
Over the previous three video games, the Payments have six turnovers. Allen threw an interception in opposition to the Saints when he could not step right into a throw to get as a lot as he needed on a gap shot, permitting Jonas Sanker to make a pleasant play for his first profession INT. And as soon as that occurred, immediately, the spell gave the impression to be damaged. Allen made an terrible determination to pressure a throw into double protection within the purple zone for an additional decide. One other compressed pocket led to an impacted throw and a decide on the finish of the primary half in opposition to the Falcons, whereas one other Allen cross was tipped and picked within the remaining minute to seal the Payments’ 24-14 loss.
Past Allen, the Payments fumbled an alternate on a jet sweep and could not fall on the soccer in opposition to Atlanta, whereas a Keon Coleman fumble contained in the 10-yard line gave the Patriots a essential quick subject early of their street win. The Payments had one other ball hit the turf in opposition to the Falcons on a third-and-1 jet sweep to Elijah Moore, and whereas he recovered the fumble, he was stopped behind the road for a loss.
A few of that is Allen throwing in unexpectedly damaging recreation scripts. And a few of it was their luck being certain to vary; throughout that 12-game streak, the Payments’ offense recovered 11 of their very own fumbles. A few of these are dangerous exchanges which might be likelier to finish up again with the offense than different fumbles within the open subject, however the Payments could not rely on repeatedly falling on the ball.
With Allen taking sacks at traditionally low charges for many of final season and the early a part of this season, and coordinator Joe Brady being very snug going for it on fourth down, the Payments have been an much more intense model of the optimistic play machine I referred to earlier with the Chiefs. Over our 12-game span, Allen took sacks on simply 3.1% of his dropbacks, which he greater than made up for along with his means to increase performs and scramble for important yardage.
Along with the six turnovers over the previous three weeks, Allen has taken eight sacks at a 9.2% price — practically tripling the speed from the prior three months. Once more, recreation script issues right here, however there is a a lot completely different system underpinning the Payments’ offense from the one which had led Allen to the MVP nod final season.
With Allen avoiding sacks and making so many out-of-structure performs, he was the uncommon quarterback who was higher underneath strain than he was understanding of a clear pocket. Once more taking a look at that span, Allen’s 87.6 QBR underneath strain was practically 15 factors higher than that of anyone else. Over the previous three video games, with sacks and takeaways changing into a problem? Allen’s QBR has dropped to 12.2 underneath strain, twenty fifth amongst quarterbacks. He has gone 8-of-21 for 90 yards with one landing and three picks over that span.
In case your offense is not a relentless on-schedule machine that by no means will get off observe, it is advisable create explosive performs to outlive. Allen’s clearly able to doing that, however the recreation scripts and the added yardage wanted for conversions leaned into Buffalo’s lack of playmakers within the passing recreation. James Cook dinner III has been excellent this season, and there have been considerations that the Payments do not get him the ball typically sufficient, however Brady has already leaned extra closely into the run. The Payments are 18th in neutral-script run price on early downs, simply narrowly off from seventeenth the 12 months prior. Even throughout this tough patch, the Payments are second within the NFL in success price on offense.
The Payments’ offense wants extra explosives and fewer takeaways. However the Payments’ protection must go in the other way. If something, the protection has been extra depending on forcing turnovers lately to thrive. Earlier this 12 months, I wrote about the way it’s troublesome to maintain turnover charges within the prime 5 on protection, simply given how a lot variance can swap takeaway figures.
Properly, listed here are two essential rankings for the Payments. The primary one is how typically they ended opposing drives with takeaways. The second is the place they ranked in factors allowed per possession on drives that did not finish with a fumble or interception. You may discover a sudden drop-off:
The Payments’ protection over the previous 5 years
SeasonTurnover rateOpponent factors/drive(no turnover)2021No. 7No. 12022No. 5No. 72023No. 1No. 72024No. 1No. 252025No. 24No. 18
This was a wonderful protection between 2021 and 2023. In 2024? The Payments weren’t nice at stopping opposing offenses, however they created extra turnovers than another crew within the league on a per-drive foundation, so the stops they did provide you with have been disproportionately beneficial.
This 12 months, although, the Payments have solely 5 takeaways in six video games. They’ve but to have a multiturnover recreation on protection after producing 10 of them within the 2024 common season, 9 of which yielded Payments victories. They’ve misplaced the turnover battle in consecutive weeks after successful or tying it in each certainly one of their regular-season and postseason video games of final season.
Strain hasn’t been an issue for the Payments, as a resurgent 12 months from Joey Bosa has helped Buffalo maintain the league’s second-best strain price this season. With out strain? The Payments have been putty. They’re twenty eighth in opponent QBR allowed with none form of strain getting house, simply forward of the Commanders, Cowboys, Titans and Ravens — all of whom are going by their very own crises within the secondary.
The Payments are going by one as properly, even when coach Sean McDermott refuses to acknowledge as a lot. This merely has not been a unit as much as their requirements. A few of that has been injury-related; the Payments have not had first-round decide Maxwell Hairston, who has been out all season to this point with a knee harm. And in flip, veteran Tre’Davious White — a cap casualty in Buffalo two years in the past — has allowed a 100.6 passer ranking, a determine that does not embrace the cross interference penalty he took in the long run zone in opposition to the Patriots to assist arrange a rating on the finish of the primary half.
The safeties have been each bit as disappointing, and there is not the identical harm excuse. Cole Bishop and Taylor Rapp have been Buffalo’s two greatest safeties on paper, they usually’ve been on the sphere all season. They’re simply not in a position to make performs. Rapp could not even get shut sufficient to make sort out makes an attempt at instances on Derrick Henry within the opener, and Bishop has made each psychological and tackling errors. Via two seasons, his profession missed sort out price is sort of 12%, an unsustainable quantity for any security. It is one factor to take a troublesome angle and miss a sort out on Bijan Robinson’s 81-yard landing scamper, however Bishop whiffed on a sort out of Stefon Diggs within the fourth quarter of the Patriots recreation, turning what ought to have been a 6-yard acquire on a third-and-5 right into a 30-yard acquire and a first-and-goal alternative. The Patriots scored a landing to go up 10 and by no means trailed the remainder of the way in which.
There are two methods to go from right here. One is to get again on the previous system — dominate the turnover battle, eradicate the damaging performs and win by making fewer errors than their opponents. The opposite is to discover a new system. The Payments can determine different methods to win, however with a resurgent Chiefs crew coming to city in two weeks, they should discover or redefine their id and quick.
What we mentioned in September: “The Daniel Jones-led offense is a flash within the pan.”
Nope. After their 38-point shellacking of the Chargers on Sunday afternoon, I am undecided how one can actually poke many holes in what the Colts are doing on offense. They’re the most effective offense within the league, and it actually is not notably shut. They’re scoring 3.5 factors per possession, and by that metric, the second-placed Chiefs are nearer to thirteenth than they’re to the Colts in first.
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The Colts additionally lead the league in EPA per play, forward of the Cowboys, Chiefs, Packers and Lions. It’d really feel as if that is going to fade, and there are no ensures that the Colts would be the greatest offense in soccer over the remainder of the season, however we have now seen them dominate opposing defenses for 419 snaps in 2025. And whereas seven video games is not even half of a season of knowledge, it is normally sufficient to know {that a} crew is not about to immediately collapse and fall to the underside half of the league.
Going again by 2010, the league chief in EPA per play after seven weeks has usually continued to play properly all through the rest of the season. They’ve, on common, been the league’s seventh-best offense from Week 8 onward. No EPA chief has been worse than 14th in EPA per play after Week 7 onward. That crew, the 2012 Giants, completed the common season ninth in EPA per play over the complete 12 months. They’re the one chief by seven weeks since 2010 that did not end the common season within the prime 5.
Barring an harm to Jones, which would go away the Colts with rookie Riley Leonard underneath heart, the Colts do not have some form of deadly flaw or underlying metric ready to trace towards their collapse. They’ve recovered three of 4 fumbles on offense, however the sign there’s fumbling solely 4 instances in seven video games, which is spectacular. They’re third within the league in third down conversion price and seventh in purple zone landing price, that are on the excessive aspect however hardly out of whack for an offense that is rolling on early downs and outdoors the purple zone, too. Will the Colts go 17-for-17 in goal-to-go conditions the remainder of the 12 months? Most likely not, however they do not want to do this to be an excellent offense.
A number of the arguments that may have been honest to convey up concerning the Colts throughout their sizzling begin in September do not actually apply now. Let’s run by them:
They’ve confronted a simple schedule. It was actually one factor when the Colts dropped 33 factors on a hapless Dolphins protection within the opener. Even then, it was clear that Miami had punted on constructing an NFL-caliber secondary and have been going to be a goal for opposing offenses all season. The Browns, who’ve been an offensive mess all season, scored 24 factors in opposition to the Dolphins on offense yesterday. The Panthers ran for 239 yards on Miami. No person must be launching their nice offensive marketing campaign on beating the Dolphins.
Properly, in Week 2, the Colts scored 29 factors and racked up 473 internet yards on the Broncos, who’ve an incredible protection. Whereas Indy has loved a few of the league’s simpler defenses (Titans, Raiders) round a 20-point, three-turnover efficiency in a loss to the Rams, Sunday was one other prove-it recreation in opposition to a Chargers protection that ranked tenth in EPA per play earlier than dealing with the Colts. Indianapolis had what was arguably its greatest offensive efficiency of the season, scoring 38 factors and topping 400 yards.
The Colts began the sport with three landing drives, all of which went 70 yards or extra, together with a 17-play epic within the second quarter. After a punt, they kicked a subject purpose and drove downfield for 2 extra touchdowns. After one other punt, the Colts chewed up the ultimate three-and-a-half minutes of clock to seal a two-TD victory.
It is one factor to spike a few massive performs or make the most of a couple of quick fields, however the Colts have been constantly explosive and in a position to create massive play alternatives all through this recreation. Even dealing with a Chargers crew that has a quarterback and a set of receivers identified for his or her means to create these massive performs, the Colts have been simply the extra explosive crew of the 2.
After Justin Herbert and the L.A. offense struggled to piece collectively an 11-play, 76-yard drive to get inside two scores within the third quarter, the Colts simply hopped on the sphere and moved the ball with ease. Tyler Warren leaked into the flat, shrugged off a sort out from security Derwin James Jr. and turned upfield for 29 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. picked up 11 yards. Alec Pierce went for 14. And with the Colts simply coming into subject purpose vary, Jonathan Taylor made up for an earlier run for no acquire on the drive by taking the ball 19 yards to the home. They moved 73 yards on 5 performs, merely overwhelming an excellent Chargers protection alongside the way in which.
Jones is not going to maintain making this many massive performs. At his greatest in New York underneath Brian Daboll, Jones had developed into a degree guard and fast distributor. Daboll dialed up run-pass choices, quick-game stuff and one-read ideas that allowed Jones to both get the ball out shortly or get to scrambling. That offense labored in 2022, at the same time as Jones threw the shortest common cross of anyone within the league, nevertheless it was much less efficient in 2023 and 2024.
There aren’t any such limitations this time round. Jones is averaging 8.4 air yards per throw, the seventh-highest determine for any quarterback within the NFL. He is a comparatively modest twelfth within the league in yards per try on deep passes, however Jones does not must be early-career Mahomes or Philip Rivers by way of selecting groups aside downfield to thrive on offense. He simply must be adequate to offer opposing defenses pause, and Jones has greater than met that prerequisite this season.
Shane Steichen has helped make life simpler for Jones in working off play-action. Jones is taking a play-fake on 33.5% of his dropbacks this season, comfortably the best price within the league. (Second, coincidentally, is Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart.) Owing partially to how devastating the Colts’ run recreation has been, Jones is averaging 9.5 yards per dropback with play-action this season, the fifth-best price within the league. On Sunday, Jones was 10-of-13 with play-action for 130 yards and a landing cross.
There isn’t any disgrace in saying that the Colts playmakers are serving to gasoline a few of these massive performs with what they do after the catch, too. Taylor has been the most effective again in soccer (alongside Bijan Robinson), whereas each certainly one of Indy’s playmakers has leveled up and appears as if they seem to be a tier above the place they have been with Anthony Richardson Sr. at quarterback.
I am undecided any offensive participant has been extra enjoyable to observe from a movie perspective this season than Warren, whose function within the offense would possibly as properly be Steichen’s Coach of the 12 months submission. No person performs extra significant roles inside the offense and will get the ball from a wider vary of locations, with Puka Nacua as the one potential competitors for that title. Warren has picked up first downs working the triple choice and working the famed Nacua Sail route out of the backfield by the offensive line. He has been a lead blocker and a Wildcat quarterback. And in opposition to the Cardinals, Warren lined up because the wing tight finish after which took the handoff on a counter on third-and-5 for a 6-yard run, establishing his landing catch on the following first-and-goal snap.
Jones will take too many sacks. The Broncos and Chargers do not precisely have mild cross rushes, and Jones has managed to outlive. The identical quarterback who ran an 8.5% sack price in New York, together with a 15.8% mark in a six-game pattern in 2023, is taking sacks on simply 2.6% of his dropbacks this season. That is the most effective mark within the league, and it is likely to be one of many single largest enhancements any participant has constituted of season-to-season.
There was somewhat little bit of magic the place gamers collide, and Jones someway manages to keep away from the fray and run ahead for a primary down, however he has legitimately been excellent about discovering the road between extending performs with the hopes of making one thing explosive and giving up on a play on the proper time. Jones has held onto the ball for 5 seconds or extra simply 3 times all season. For context, Caleb Williams and Cam Ward are tied for the league lead with 20 such performs.
Jones can also be much less concerned within the run recreation than he has been in previous years. Taking kneel-downs out of the equation, Jones has 22 carries for 86 yards by six video games. These numbers aren’t going to look good in comparison with what the 2019 first-round decide was in a position to do at his greatest with the Giants, nevertheless it’s additionally a safer solution to dwell. Jones took hits on practically 31% of his dropbacks between 2023 and 2024 in New York, a determine topped solely by Justin Fields. That determine is down to simply over 21% this season. Fewer hits imply fewer alternatives to get injured.
Accidents will likely be an issue. No person can predict accidents, nevertheless it’s honest to at the least notice that Jones has performed only one full season of soccer in his professional profession because the starter with out lacking time. That risk goes to hold over the Colts, particularly on condition that the untested Leonard is one dangerous Jones hit away from being their beginning quarterback. On the similar time, including a veteran with a wholesome résumé is not a assure, both; Kirk Cousins had been wholesome for many of the prior decade earlier than tearing an Achilles. And Indianapolis’ O-line has been glorious all through the season. Outdoors of dropping Taylor or one thing, the Colts and Jones must be tremendous.
They will not be capable of throw in damaging recreation scripts. This would possibly find yourself being true. The issue is that no person is ready to get out to a sufficiently big result in discover out. Jones hasn’t taken a single snap trailing by multiple rating all season. Once they have fallen behind, Jones and Taylor have accomplished an incredible job of getting the Colts instantly again into the sport. And as soon as they’ve gotten forward, Jones and Taylor have sometimes accomplished a wonderful job of retaining them there.
At 6-1, the Colts are immediately in first place in the complete AFC, not to mention the South. Jones has been one of many gamers of the 12 months to this point. It is shortly changing into tougher to poke holes in his success with Steichen and Indianapolis. With one other spectacular win over one of many league’s extra imposing defenses, Jones is firmly establishing himself as a part of the quarterback reclamation class of 2025. He would possibly even find yourself being valedictorian.
