The NBA season isn’t fairly on the midway level, however with three months of video games already performed and the brand new 12 months approaching, it looks like a great time to look forward and make some daring predictions for the season remaining primarily based on what we’ve seen to date.
There have been loads of surprises: Did anybody forecast the Cleveland Cavaliers as one of the best group within the East? Did anybody anticipate that Philadelphia can be one of many worst? Or that the Milwaukee Bucks can be one of many worst and among the best within the area of three months?
There have been different pre-season predictions which have panned out nicely. In the event you had been one of many many to anticipate that the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder can be one of the best group within the Western Convention, take a bow. Equally, should you had been of the thoughts that Nikola Jokic would as soon as once more be main the very brief listing of potential MVPs as he weapons for his fourth win in 5 years.
However there may be loads of season left, which suggests there’s loads of time to nonetheless be incorrect about issues:
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The Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder will make a commerce, and that commerce will propel them to their first NBA championship
The Thunder are one of the best group within the NBA to date this season, and likewise not adequate — as constructed — to win the NBA championship. That is traditional ‘two issues will be true’ territory.
Earlier than video games Friday night time, the Thunder have a 24-5 document, a nine-game successful streak and are 3.5 video games forward of second-place Houston within the West. However, because the Thunder confirmed when shedding to the Dallas Mavericks within the playoffs final season or within the finals of the NBA Cup final week to Milwaukee, they might use some further three-point taking pictures (they’re nineteenth in proportion and fifteenth in makes) and if it got here within the type of some measurement on the wing, that may be nice.
The Thunder have the means so as to add a Dorian Finney-Smith or Cam Johnson, and even go attempting to find larger recreation, if motivated. This must be the 12 months OKC cashes in a few of their future draft capital (they probably have entry to 11 first-round picks over the subsequent three drafts. Not all will convey on account of numerous protections, however you get the image) to verify as many holes are plugged heading into the playoffs as potential.
The Thunder are a wonderful group with an MVP-level star in his prime in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Add another piece and they are going to be champions.
It’s not incorrect to foretell that the Boston Celtics will repeat as NBA champions, nevertheless it’s not automated they arrive out of the East
For all the Celtics’ championship qualities — two famous person wings in Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, high quality veterans in Jrue Vacation and Al Horford nonetheless bringing it, and all-world glue man Derrick White conserving all of it collectively — any variety of components might deliver Boston down: their over-reliance on the three ball, the brittleness of Kristaps Porzingis or just the grind of getting performed into the final week of Could or past for three-straight seasons.
At this stage of the 12 months, we’re too far in to counsel the Cleveland Cavaliers aren’t Finals-worthy materials. They’ve the NBA’s finest document, the league’s top-rated offence and simply two years in the past had been the NBA’s finest defence (and seventh-best at present), so they’re licensed threats to Boston.
Anybody else? Don’t sleep on the Orlando Magic. They’ve the NBA’s third-best defence (had been second final season) and have remained within the high 4 of the East although their two finest gamers — Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner — have missed appreciable quantities of time with indirect accidents. Banchero can be again shortly, and presuming Wagner isn’t out too lengthy, the Magic will give the East’s elite all they’ll deal with, sufficient that I predict both Cleveland or Orlando — and never Boston — will symbolize the East within the NBA Finals.
Zach Edey turns into Canada’s first rookie of the 12 months award winner
Granted, not all that daring a prediction on condition that the “Delight of Leaside” was the ninth general choose by Memphis final June, however on condition that even this time final 12 months, as Edey was plowing his method towards a sweep of the end-of-season player-of-the-year awards for the second consecutive NCAA season, there have been loads of expertise evaluators who questioned if it could translate to the NBA.
Edey’s put that concern to relaxation. He’s averaging 11.1 factors, 7.9 rebounds and 1.1 blocks on 59.5 per cent taking pictures for the Grizzlies, who’re in third place within the West.
Since getting back from an ankle harm that stored him out for 12 video games, Edey hasn’t missed a beat, together with placing up 21 factors and 16 rebounds and including two blocks in opposition to his hometown Toronto Raptors on Thursday night time.
He appears to have discovered himself in a great scenario in Memphis, the place there may be loads of runway to contribute, however no strain to play exterior of himself. Elsewhere, there aren’t any rookies making stronger circumstances (though Edey’s teammate, Jaylen Wells, can be within the dialog) and that he’s doing it as a part of a successful group will assist Edey’s case.
The Spurs commerce for De’Aaron Fox
Issues haven’t been going nicely in Sacramento this season, with the Kings unable to take the step to the subsequent stage after two encouraging seasons with the Fox-Domantas Sabonis core. Fox declined an extension this low season for largely CBA-related causes — he can be eligible for a good bigger one this summer season — however latest reporting from The Athletic suggests Fox and his new Klutch representatives are a minimum of probing what the plan is to get Sacramento the place they should go.
If the perimeters can’t discover widespread sufficient floor, the Spurs are completely positioned to take benefit. Whereas they’ll absolutely watch out cashing of their mixture of picks, prospects, and strong gamers on cheap offers, the pure co-star alongside Victor Wembanyama is prone to be a dynamic guard, and Fox matches the invoice. Wembanyama is already affecting video games to a Defensive Participant of the Yr stage on one finish, and a down-ballot MVP stage on the opposite, so it shouldn’t be lengthy now earlier than the Spurs say hey, he’s prepared, let’s go for it.
This may, clearly, be a setback for the Kings, who should hope (if it will get thus far) that they’ll style a win-win commerce with San Antonio that lets them stay aggressive round Sabonis and firm.
Dylan Harper makes a lottery “loser” very completely satisfied
It might be nearly unimaginable for any prospect to play nicely sufficient this season to knock Cooper Flagg from the No. 1 choice within the 2025 NBA Draft. This isn’t suggesting Dylan Harper will; Flagg’s ground and ceiling are each simply too large. The Rutgers guard will, nonetheless, set up himself because the clear No. 2 prospect in an excellent, top-heavy draft class, making the group that “solely” lands second within the lottery fairly content material with their “dangerous” lottery luck.
At six-foot-six and 215 kilos, Harper’s skill to get deep into the paint with velocity and physicality ought to translate to the NBA stage, and whereas he’ll have to increase his three-point vary (like most guard prospects), his skill to generate free-throw makes an attempt and end in shut ought to make him a productive scorer early. He’s additionally a complicated passer for the place should you challenge him as a two-guard, the place he must be a fairly good defender as nicely along with his athleticism and compete stage.
Bear in mind, even ending lifeless final solely provides you a 14-percent probability at Flagg. That expands to a 27.4-percent probability at touchdown Flagg or Harper, which feels rather less miserable than tanking a whole season for a 1-in-7 shot at a lone generational prospect.
The NBA re-examines how the G League operates
As a G League sicko, it’s been nice to see the league evolve over time to the place each group has an affiliate, groups really worth the additional reps younger gamers can get, and successful applications can level to their G League system as a key to their long-term developmental successes. With that stated, the NBA and NBPA may have to take a look at some tweaks, primarily based on suggestions I’ve heard from scouts and executives across the league, and from my very own eyes.
The problem isn’t that the play is dangerous, as a result of it’s not. Nevertheless, with three two-way gamers per NBA roster and the NBA skewing ever youthful with the previous couple of normal NBA roster spots, a lot of the promising play within the G League comes from gamers already on NBA rosters. That’s nice, to an extent; it’s good developmentally, and native followers will wish to see gamers with an attachment to the NBA membership. On the identical time, it’s made the pool of accessible gamers for 10-day contracts or two-way signings perilously skinny. Even expanded use of Exhibit 10 bonuses — which may up the G League wage from $43,000 to as much as $120,500 for some gamers — can’t compete with European offers to maintain unsigned gamers within the G League en masse.
There’ll all the time be some names of curiosity, your T.J. Warrens and Frank Kaminskies in search of their quickest path again to The Present. And the simple reply is paying gamers extra, which matches in opposition to capitalistic ideas, even for a league that isn’t supposed to be profit-generating. Nonetheless, an instance just like the latest G League Winter Showcase being way more about commerce chatter than precise G League gamers of curiosity suggests the league could have to brainstorm methods to maintain the G League participant pool intriguing, even when the first function stays assignee growth.
