This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat e-newsletter. To learn the complete e-newsletter, click on right here. And subscribe to get it often in your inbox.
ATLANTA — The Braves are approaching subsequent week’s Winter Conferences with a number of wants and the fact that they might face stiff penalties in the event that they exceed the aggressive stability tax threshold for a 3rd straight season.
Based on FanGraphs’ RosterResource, the Braves’ estimated luxurious tax payroll stands simply north of $217 million. That is roughly $24 million shy of MLB’s first luxurious tax threshold for the 2025 season. However the present payroll projection doesn’t embrace the mixed prices of the beginning pitcher, outfielder(s) and reliever(s) Atlanta should add this winter.
Groups that carry payrolls above the brink are taxed on every greenback above the brink, with the tax charge rising primarily based on the variety of consecutive years a membership has exceeded the brink. The Braves can be taxed at a 50 % charge as a result of this is able to be their third straight yr to exceed the brink.
This wouldn’t be a major deterrent if a crew have been to exceed the brink by a number of million {dollars}. However a major overage may lead to primarily including one other participant value to the payroll.
President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos will proceed to weigh all of the variables as he journeys by means of an offseason that grew to become more difficult through current damage information. Frontline starter Spencer Strider may miss the season’s first month whereas recovering from elbow surgical procedure and 2023 Nationwide League MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. may miss not less than six weeks whereas recovering from knee surgical procedure. High setup man Joe Jiménez may miss all or most of 2025 whereas recovering from his personal knee process.
The rumor mill shall be circulating because the Winter Conferences happen from Sunday by means of Wednesday in Dallas. Observe complete protection through MLB.com, Braves.com and MLB Community.
The present projected Opening Day outfield can be Michael Harris II in heart, Jarred Kelenic in left and Eli White/Carlos Rodriguez/write-in candidate in proper. So, there’s an apparent want for not less than one outfielder to account for Acuña’s absence by means of a lot of the first third of the season. That outfielder may additionally present insurance coverage as Kelenic once more tries to show he will be an on a regular basis huge leaguer.
Including a beginning pitcher will compensate for Strider’s early-season absence and supply insurance coverage because the Braves consider whether or not Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver and different fifth-starter candidates are able to turn out to be rotation mainstays.
Jiménez’s damage and A.J. Minter’s free-agent departure have created important voids within the bullpen. Minter may return through signing, however it might take him time to spherical into kind following hip surgical procedure. Search for the Braves to pursue a legit high-leverage arm to pair with Pierce Johnson as setup choices.
How will the Braves exchange Max Fried?
An apparent choice can be to re-sign the veteran left-hander who stands as one in all this yr’s prime free-agent beginning pitchers. However in contrast to with current free-agent departees Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson, there has by no means been a way Fried will re-sign with Atlanta. With Strider more likely to miss April, the one present locks for Atlanta’s Opening Day rotation can be Chris Sale, Reynaldo López and Spencer Schwellenbach. Thus, reuniting with Charlie Morton, signing one other free-agent starter or grabbing an arm through commerce is a major want.
POTENTIAL TRADE CANDIDATES
Many groups have unsuccessfully tried to land right-handed pitching prospect Hurston Waldrep, who could fall within the untouchable class. Catcher Drake Baldwin is Atlanta’s second-most engaging commerce piece. However with Travis d’Arnaud’s departure, the Braves could also be hesitant to scale back depth at this premium place. So, one of the best commerce piece could also be Smith-Shawver, who ranks as MLB’s No. 97 prospect. Smith-Shawver has MLB expertise and the upside that has grown since he started pitching once more earlier than his 2021 senior season in highschool.
Braves followers have seen Smith-Shawver (Atlanta’s No. 2 prospect) each of the previous two seasons. They obtained a glimpse of Waldrep (No. 3) and Nacho Alvarez Jr. (No. 4) final yr. If Baldwin (No. 5) isn’t traded, there’s a very good probability he’ll debut for Atlanta subsequent summer season. The gifted left-handed-hitting catcher’s inventory has risen over the previous two years. He homered throughout this previous summer season’s Futures Sport and considerations about his protection have lessened throughout his first couple of professional seasons. Chadwick Tromp may start the season as Atlanta’s backup catcher, however Baldwin may fill that function after a little bit extra Minor League seasoning.
Left-hander Luis De Avila (No. 15) is the one member of the crew’s High 30 Prospects listing who may very well be taken throughout the MLB portion of the Rule 5 Draft. However his stroll charge will possible lead different groups to go on the requirement to maintain him on their huge league roster all of subsequent season. Atlanta hasn’t made a range within the MLB portion of the Rule 5 Draft since Anthopoulos took over earlier than the beginning of the 2018 season.
