This winter may be the Pirates’ most vital offseason since 2012, the months earlier than they made the leap from a sub-.500 membership to the postseason in ’13. The circumstances this winter are comparable, because the Pirates (71-91) completed final within the Nationwide League Central, however membership president Travis Williams was clear with their expectations: “Win in 2026 and to make the playoffs. Interval. Full cease.”
It’s a pivotal winter. Their most pivotal resolution is what they may do with Mitch Keller.
The veteran righty is coming off a stable season, albeit to not his earlier All-Star stage, ending 6-15 with a 4.19 ERA over 32 begins and 176 1/3 innings. That’s a useful pitcher, however Keller might additionally carry again an influence participant in return.
Time will inform if the Pirates determine to make a transfer, however the resolution just isn’t black-and-white. There are many causes to maintain Keller and loads of causes to attempt to flip him. Let’s check out three of every.
CASE FOR: Commerce from a strengthPaul Skenes. Bubba Chandler. Braxton Ashcraft. Johan Oviedo. Mike Burrows. Hunter Barco. Jared Jones. The Pirates boast maybe the most effective younger pitching core in baseball, anchored by a perpetual Cy Younger contender in Skenes.
Keller would undoubtedly be one of many membership’s 5 finest starters, however this offense wants a lift. If they’ll add a legit bat to the lineup in trade for Keller, they’ve the pitching depth to entertain a deal.
CASE AGAINST: How a lot depth do you’ve gotten?Burrows completed with 128 1/3 whole innings this 12 months between Triple-A Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, Ashcraft with 118 (additionally between Triple-A and Pittsburgh) and Barco with 102 1/3 (break up among the many Pirates, Indianapolis and Double-A Altoona). These had been all vital leaps ahead from every hurler’s earlier profession excessive, over 30 innings from their earlier data. Jones is coming off elbow surgical procedure. Oviedo will probably be in his first full 12 months again from Tommy John himself.
Because the saying goes, you possibly can by no means have an excessive amount of pitching, and Keller, Skenes and Oviedo are the one pitchers on the roster who’ve thrown 140 innings in a season. Accidents can occur. Workloads may have to be managed. Keller has made 95 begins since 2023, tied for the fifth most in baseball. Typically the most effective skill is availability, and he generally is a stabilizing pressure in a younger and gifted rotation.
CASE FOR: Frees up moneyKeller is ready to make $16.5 million in 2026 and has three years and $54.5 million remaining on his deal. That’s hardly back-breaking, nevertheless it’s additionally a giant chunk of the Pirates’ projected payroll, and there are areas of this roster that have to be addressed.
Monetary flexibility performed into the Ke’Bryan Hayes commerce in July. This crew wants so as to add a minimum of one infielder and one nook outfielder, however that’s hardly an exhaustive checklist. Having a bigger slush fund might both allow them to unfold the cash round to extra areas of want or take an even bigger swing on the free-agent hitter market.
CASE AGAINST: He’s a veteran leaderYou want gamers to set the tempo and be an instance. Keller is that kind of participant and particular person. Skenes has grown into that kind of chief, too, however he would be the first to inform you that Keller was a kind of examples he regarded as much as in his rookie 12 months. This can be a younger membership and Keller is their second-longest-tenured participant behind Bryan Reynolds.
CASE FOR: It’s a weak free-agent class for pitchersFramber Valdez and Ranger Suárez are stable and Dylan Stop will get loads of consideration this winter. However until Shota Imanaga, Lucas Giolito and Michael King hit the market (each have mutual choices for 2026 with the Crimson Sox and Padres, respectively), that’s actually about it by way of influence arms up for grabs this offseason (and that trio has loads of query marks, too).
There’s at all times a requirement for pitchers, Keller is healthier than many of the choices on the market and he comes with a assured contract. He may very well be the most effective arms obtainable this winter.
CASE AGAINST: Is he extra useful as a participant than as a commerce chip?The asking worth for Keller this Commerce Deadline was excessive, and justifiably so. No person was keen to satisfy the value, so the Pirates stored him.
There’s no motive to commerce Keller for lower than what they assume he’s price. He’s one in all their finest commerce chips. He’s additionally one in all their finest gamers and may make the 2026 membership higher.
