The primary half of the 2024 MLB season featured numerous nice tales. There’s the reliever-turned-starter who joined a brand new membership and has been higher than ever. There’s the previously defense-first middle fielder who went from one of many Majors’ worst hitters to a respectable risk on the plate. There’s the previous No. 1 prospect having a profession yr that earned him an All-Star begin.
All these storylines — and extra — are enjoyable. However will they stand the check of time? Not each participant can maintain their manufacturing from one half of the season to the opposite, and lots of standout first halves will find yourself forgotten by the point issues are stated and accomplished. (That might maintain true despite the fact that the 2024 “first half” was truly effectively over half the common season, with groups taking part in roughly 60% of their video games.)
Listed below are eight gamers who put collectively dominant first halves — and a have a look at whether or not they can anticipate the identical success after the All-Star break.
Reynaldo López, SP, BravesIn his first season as a full-time starter since 2020, López has proved himself a wonderful offseason addition for the Braves. The precise-hander leads all certified pitchers in ERA (1.88) and has an above-average 24.6% strikeout charge. One among MLB’s finest starters throughout the season’s first half, López has bolstered a Braves rotation that misplaced ace Spencer Strider to elbow surgical procedure in April.
Only a few pitchers can maintain an ERA as little as López’s has been, however how far would possibly he fall? Based mostly on his Statcast-projected 4.26 anticipated ERA, López has been the third-luckiest pitcher within the Majors when accounting for quality-of-contact information, walks and strikeouts. It additionally stays to be seen if López can maintain up beneath an elevated workload — he’s already thrown 95 2/3 innings, nearly 30 greater than he’s thrown in any season since 2019.
Steven Kwan, OF, GuardiansKwan has at all times hit for a excessive common, however he’s taken issues to a brand new stage this yr. Not solely has Kwan’s common soared from .282 getting into 2024 to a Main League-leading .352 this season, however the Guardians outfielder has hit 9 homers with a .512 slugging share and .920 OPS. Kwan missed roughly 4 weeks with a hamstring pressure, however he performed so effectively when he was on the sector that he drew the beginning in left subject and the leadoff task for the American League All-Star staff.
Will Kwan keep above the .350 mark? That’s most likely unlikely, though he may not end too far off. Kwan’s .312 anticipated batting common is tied for fourth in MLB, and he’s in elite firm in a number of different Statcast metrics, too. Whereas it’s a part of his talent set reasonably than an indicator of any flaw in his sport, Kwan doesn’t hit the ball exhausting or barrel it up typically. For these causes, his energy numbers ought to drop a bit: Kwan’s anticipated slugging share is .414, practically 100 factors beneath his precise mark.
Seth Lugo, SP, RoyalsLugo has confirmed to be way more than only a veteran stabilizer for the Royals’ rotation after signing a two-year take care of a participant choice within the offseason. His 2.48 ERA within the first half ranked third within the AL, behind solely Tigers ace Tarik Skubal (2.41) and AL All-Star starter Corbin Burnes (2.43). Lugo has additionally thrown 127 innings, the second most of any AL pitcher. He’s pitched 5 or extra innings in all 20 begins and has accomplished at the least six innings 17 occasions.
In 2023, Lugo — in his first full season as a starter since 2017 with the Mets — put up a 3.57 ERA in 26 begins for the Padres. The Royals would definitely take that in a beginning rotation additionally that includes Cole Ragans and Brady Singer even when it means some regression for Lugo. Nothing actually jumps out concerning the veteran right-hander’s Statcast web page, however Lugo’s uncommon nine-pitch combine has been fooling hitters all yr.
Brenton Doyle, OF, RockiesDoyle has made a formidable leap from 2023 to 2024 on the offensive aspect of issues. Final season, he was the worst certified hitter in all of MLB in keeping with anticipated wOBA, which accounts for high quality of contact, strikeouts and walks. Doyle made a dwelling together with his elite pace and protection, however this yr, he’s made main strides with the bat.
Doyle’s .343 xwOBA in 2024 ranks within the 73rd percentile of MLB, within the firm of stars like Dodgers catcher Will Smith (.343) and Mariners outfielder Julio Rodríguez (.341). The Rockies middle fielder is one in all 4 gamers with at the least 15 house runs and at the least 20 steals in 2024 — the others are Shohei Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr. and Elly De La Cruz. Taking an .815 OPS into the All-Star break, Doyle appears to have made lasting adjustments for the higher the place he most wanted to.
Ronel Blanco, SP, AstrosWho might have foreseen the Astros’ finest starter in 2024 — in a rotation that includes Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez — being Blanco? That has in reality been the case, because the third-year right-hander threw a no-hitter in his first begin of the season and made a pair different no-hit bids as effectively. Blanco completed the primary half with a 2.56 ERA and 100 strikeouts in 18 begins, rising from relative obscurity to turn out to be one of many AL’s finest starters thus far in 2024.
Blanco has held opposing hitters to a .179 batting common or decrease on all 4 of his pitches, so he’s been exhausting to resolve this season. Above-average chase and whiff charges and a low hard-hit charge have pushed Blanco’s success, though he may not proceed to dominate to this stage. Blanco’s xERA sits at 3.56, and even when he completed the yr at that quantity, Houston would most likely be proud of it.
Josh Smith, 3B, RangersSmith nearly singlehandedly gained the Rangers their last sport earlier than the All-Star break, smashing a pair of two-run homers in a 4-2 victory over the Astros to safe a sequence win. It was a grand finale to a wonderful first half for Smith, who has posted a .293/.392/.469 slash line in 2024. Smith has been simply what the Rangers wanted after beginning third baseman Josh Jung fractured his wrist in early April.
Based on xwOBA, Smith has been MLB’s luckiest hitter thus far this season, together with his precise manufacturing far exceeding his anticipated numbers. Smith hasn’t hit the ball exhausting sufficient to again up his .469 slugging share, though his plate self-discipline has been above common. He’s additionally been crushing fastballs effectively (.319 AVG, .524 SLG).
Tanner Houck, SP, Purple SoxThe former first-round choose flashed his promise as a rookie in 2021, however Houck was moved to the bullpen the next season. Returning to a starter position final yr, the right-hander struggled with a 5.01 ERA in 21 begins. Houck has minimize that quantity in half in 2024, proudly owning a 2.54 ERA — fourth within the AL. With Chris Sale traded to the Braves, Garrett Whitlock out for the season and Brayan Bello struggling, Houck has turn out to be the ace of Boston’s workers.
Is his success certain to final? It’s exhausting to inform — Houck excels in some superior metrics, together with chase charge (84th percentile in MLB), barrel charge (83rd percentile) and ground-ball charge (92nd percentile). Nonetheless, his hard-hit charge ranks within the sixteenth percentile and he doesn’t generate a ton of whiffs. Houck’s 3.71 xERA alerts there ought to be some regression to come back, however seemingly not sufficient to erase his All-Star first half.
And primarily based on Statcast metrics, together with xBA and xwOBA, Profar’s breakout yr is for actual. That’s largely because of his plate self-discipline: He is solely putting out at a 15.0% clip whereas strolling 11.7% of the time, and his chase and whiff charges are effectively above common. Profar’s stats would possibly take a small step again, however there’s nothing to point his manufacturing has been completely unsustainable.
