CFP rankings 'winners' and 'losers,' plus BYU-Texas Tech steals spotlight

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Simply 4 full Saturdays left. For those who don’t keep watch over the Georgia Southern-Appalachian State rivalry tonight, don’t come crying to me in February about soccer abandoning you.

November Insanity: Geese ‘down,’ Massive 12 ‘up’

A humorous second in every school soccer season from 1998 onward: the midseason night after we cease referring to groups by their AP rankings and begin utilizing their BCS/CFP rankings as a substitute, which means numerous top-25 groups immediately really feel like they’ve simply risen or fallen whereas obliviously enjoying Battlefield of their dorms.

First, the primary motive these two rankings are completely different is due to their strategies.

The AP is the game’s historic gold commonplace, but it surely’s put collectively late Saturday night time by writers who nearly actually didn’t have the time to scrutinize each end result (and who aren’t debating all their votes with one another).
The CFP committee members get to patiently parse every group, to largely agree on standards and to re-parse early video games in mild of what’s occurred since. After all these merchandise look completely different.

Now that now we have the season’s first CFP rankings, let’s assess some issues that really feel like modifications, since we’d all been used to the AP Prime 25. “Losers” and “winners” from 2025’s CFP debut on Tuesday, based mostly on which groups now rank worse or higher than they’d ranked moments previous to Rece Davis studying an inventory:

Loser: No. 9 Oregon, 7-1. The Geese rank No. 6 within the AP, the place they’d solely fallen to No. 8 proper after dropping to Indiana. Oregon has in any other case received comfortably, however for those who’re going to lose by 10 at dwelling, you’d choose to have crushed any individual higher than 5-3 Northwestern. (The Geese “slipping” a couple of spots additionally meant two Massive 12 groups, No. 7 BYU and No. 8 Texas Tech, “transferring up” from their AP rankings earlier than enjoying one another Saturday.)

Does this matter? No, although the revelation did damage the Geese’ title odds. Penn State’s downfall ruined their signature win, however they end with 4 of their greatest probabilities to impress — at No. 20 Iowa this week, vs. 6-3 Minnesota, vs. No. 19 USC and at No. 23 Washington. Robust group. A group angling for a bid would end 3-1 or higher, irrespective of its beginning place.

Winner: No. 10 Notre Dame, 6-2. That’s the identical rating that the Irish have within the AP, however any time you begin 0-2 after which present up because the top-ranked two-loss group, all whereas realizing you received’t should play a thirteenth recreation, you’re sitting fairly. Most likely even hosting-another-Playoff-game fairly.

Does this matter? Sure, although it’s the identical rating we already thought Notre Dame had, so no. Dealing with the Sixteenth-toughest schedule thus far (per Austin Mock), the Irish have six multi-score wins and two squeaker losses. Stable restoration by my preseason title decide. 😎 Regardless, they absolutely should win out, together with in opposition to 7-1 Navy on Saturday and No. 24 Pitt.

Loser: The ACC. Virginia “fell” two spots from No. 12 within the AP to No. 14 within the CFP, with that large September win over former No. 8 Florida State now trying merely first rate. No. 15 Louisville and No. 17 Georgia Tech “fell” one every.

Does this matter? No, with a semi-caveat. The pc composite has UVA and GT down within the 20s (!) after numerous close-call wins. Nonetheless, the convention getting a number of bids isn’t out of the query, and at the least the highest three can’t knock one another out earlier than Charlotte. Apart from, if the CFP actually had it out for the ACC, it wouldn’t have ranked the AP-unranked Pitt. (Additionally, if Tech can beat Georgia in a couple of weeks, this all seems like historical historical past.)
Semi-caveat: No. 18 Miami ought to rank greater. The 6-2 Canes are No. 12 within the computer systems, have a win over the CFP’s No. 10 group (Notre Dame), blew out a USF group that may in any other case be ranked and solely misplaced (shut) to No. 15 Louisville and on the highway to 6-3 SMU. Then once more, Miami’s additionally No. 18 within the AP, so this wasn’t a “fall” and due to this fact doesn’t match this train anyway.

Winner: No. 11 Texas, 7-2. When groups are clustered collectively, the committee prefers to stack them by their head-to-head outcomes. So if Oklahoma and Texas are each No. 11-ish groups, the winner of their October assembly will get a nicer perch than the Longhorns’ No. 13 spot within the AP. (When the committee doesn’t do that, as within the case of Miami, it means they assume these two groups aren’t really clustered. I’m simply the messenger.)

Does this matter? No. Each Purple River rivals already regarded like potential 9-3 Playoff groups. Every has two ranked wins and has solely misplaced to ranked groups and/or on the highway. If Texas beats Georgia subsequent week however loses to Texas A&M (or vice versa) or Oklahoma wins at Alabama earlier than dropping to Missouri, the armies of “STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE!” and “SEC BIAS!” will conflict ferociously. (And no, the rationale for the SEC’s good place isn’t how annoying the convention’s PR was in the summertime.)

Loser: The Group of 5. No 7-1 Memphis, not like the AP, and no 7-1 JMU, 8-1 North Texas, 7-1 San Diego State or 6-2 USF. Additionally no 4-6 Akron, technically.

Does this matter? No. Although I’d choose to see illustration, the committee would possibly’ve included all these non-Akron groups if it’d accomplished a top-35 rating. For now, every time zero G5 groups seem, the committee nonetheless names the highest rep: Memphis, a great signal for the American’s horde of contenders. (Additionally, for individuals who consider the CFP manipulates its rankings to be able to promote upcoming video games: Notice it didn’t rank Navy throughout Notre Dame week.)

Winner: No. 20 Iowa, 6-2. Hovering forth from the also-receiving-votes outskirts of the AP. Overdue recognition for a group with a sometimes nice protection and alarmingly competent offense.

Does this matter? Perhaps just a little. However it could really feel dangerous to interrupt the streak of claiming no. Successful upcoming video games in opposition to Oregon, USC and 6-3 Nebraska would’ve gotten the committee’s consideration regardless.

Winner: No. 13 Utah, 7-2. The week’s largest “soar,” from No. 17 within the AP. About time we caught on to the Utes crushing every part besides the Massive 12’s two top-eight groups. The truth is, Utah’s No. 11 within the computer systems.

Does this matter? Perhaps sure, really. Although not for the time being. So nonetheless no. The Utes are considerably surprisingly on the verge of a bid already, a great signal that the CFP’s supposed new emphasis on schedule power isn’t hurting the Massive 12. However even when they’d began decrease, maybe they nonetheless might’ve made it in by ending with wins at 5-4 Baylor, in opposition to 4-5 Kansas State and at 5-4 Kansas.

Fast Snaps

The Watch Grid: Massive 12 so up, it’s stolen the weekend highlight

For the second Saturday in a row, a recreation that felt in August prefer it would possibly outline the season will as a substitute barely outline its time slot. Final week it was Penn State-Ohio State, and now it’s … properly, each Florida State-Clemson and LSU-Alabama. (Until the Tigers have develop into actually mediocre sufficient to beat Kalen DeBoer, the coach who solely loses to mediocre groups.)

Having mentioned that, it is going to be troublesome to pry my sinful eyes away from FSU-Clemson, when both the previous No. 7 Noles develop into 4-5 or the previous No. 4 Tigers attain 3-6. Clemson’s favored by 2.5, per BetMGM. Don’t act such as you’re too good of an individual to observe.

Nonetheless, as talked about above, there’s an precise season-definer earlier within the day:

The 8-1 Purple Raiders, 10-point dwelling favorites regardless of the Second Modification now not making use of to tortillas, can assert themselves because the clear Massive 12 favorites and arrange a possible rematch in opposition to BYU, possibly even with a top-four seed on the road. With an upset, the Cougars can be 9-0 and really near clinching a beforehand surprising bid.

For those who’re watching Texas Tech for the primary time this season, know this group is elite at protection, getting tons of stress with out blitzing usually. Nonetheless not uninterested in noting that is the alternative of TTU’s Mike Leach days.
Additionally, know BYU’s true freshman beginning quarterback, Bear Bachmeier, wears No. 47. Sporting a fullback’s quantity really helps him entry fullback mindset. No, for actual.
These Massive 12 rivals (within the loosest sense of the phrase) do not have so much in widespread, however they got here collectively to lift cash for Texas Tech’s barber, Ivan Ortiz, and his spouse, Maddie Ortiz, after her current automobile crash.

Elsewhere, this actually is a good Saturday schedule (they’re all nice Saturday schedules, Brent), when you permit your self to view the late-night video games by way of the essential lens of comedy.

Tulane at Memphis (-3.5) is likely one of the largest G5 video games left, Texas A&M (6.5) can juuust about clinch a Playoff spot (or inject some chaos atop the SEC race) and even the finale between San Diego State (-6.5) and Hawaii pairs bowl-eligible groups. And hey, there’s loads of historic playing information that means Navy would possibly give the Irish rather more of a struggle than that 26.5-point unfold suggests.

In Manny Navarro’s weekend predictions, Iowa (+6.5) upsets Oregon.

Lastly, for those who or somebody you’re keen on has been troubled by YouTube TV not carrying ESPN networks, fill out this survey for us. With that, I will see you Sunday. Holler at untilsaturday@theathletic.com if you would like.

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