Charting Cam Ward: What numbers say about star's 2025 NFL Draft prospects

For the previous eight years or so, I’ve spent NFL Draft season charting the entire high quarterbacks (except for the 2022 class, which didn’t deserve my time or anybody else’s). Not solely is the info helpful to have, however the charting course of actually permits me to dive deep on the entire quarterback prospect.

I’ve charted as many as eight or 10 gamers in earlier lessons; this 12 months’s class doesn’t warrant that sort of consideration to element.

As a substitute, we’re going to look at the 2 heaviest hitters: Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders. First up, Ward.

Cam Ward’s popularity as a prospect suffers as a result of the remainder of the category is lower than snuff.

A lot air has been spent this offseason speaking about how this isn’t the 12 months to draft a quarterback — in comparison with final 12 months, it’s onerous to argue that. Six quarterbacks went within the first spherical of the 2024 NFL Draft, and a minimum of three of them (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye) would have been top-five picks in any class. Even prospects a tier or two under these guys (particularly, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr.) acquitted themselves properly down the again half of their rookie seasons.

The 2025 class, against this, has simply Ward and Sanders as prospects price any first-round dialogue. The amount of high quality prospects simply isn’t there, prefer it was a 12 months in the past.

That disappointment in regards to the class at massive has inadvertently dampened Ward’s profile. He too typically will get solid as “QB6 or QB, if he have been in final 12 months’s class,” as a result of that helps signify how a lot worse this 12 months’s group is general. In actuality, although, Ward would have been no worse than QB4 within the 2024 class — and he would have been a straightforward top-10 decide, even with all the opposite competitors.

I may make 100 completely different circumstances for Ward based mostly purely on movie, however let’s dive into what the charting numbers say.

Proper off the highest, Ward’s 73.0 p.c accuracy fee clears the bar with ease (something over 70 p.c is often signal). For a participant who’s as aggressive down the sphere as Ward tends to be, that rings even more true.

The place Ward shines, particularly, is to the intermediate and deep center sections of the sphere. Ward is a big-game hunter who has by no means as soon as backed down from throwing into a decent window. Digs, seams, benders, posts — Ward will make his cash within the NFL on aggressive routes between the numbers. He’s clearly studied the Dak Prescott college of quarterbacking.

Ward’s 74.1 p.c accuracy fee within the 11-20 yard vary over the center, in addition to his 71.4 p.c accuracy down the deep center, are each stellar figures. His willingness to make these throws mirrors what you see from the league’s greatest passers, and Ward actually has the arm expertise to make it work.

(*numbers don’t embody FCS opponents or bowl sport; display passes not counted below man/zone or open-/closed-window splits)

On a associated be aware, Ward has the pinpoint accuracy required for these tight-windows throws. His 48.4 p.c accuracy fee into tight home windows doesn’t fairly crack the elite 50-plus-percent vary, nevertheless it’s shut. In truth, it’s barely higher than the 47.0 and 46.0 p.c figures I charted from Williams and Maye, respectively, a 12 months in the past. Daniels and Nix additionally cleared the 45 p.c mark final 12 months.

One other factor working in Ward’s favor is his manufacturing when pressured. On its face, a 54.3 p.c accuracy fee below stress is fairly darn good. (something over 50 p.c places a prospect within the clear, in my eyes).

With Ward, nevertheless, you may dig a layer deeper and discover one thing much more spectacular. In Ward’s case, 15 of his “misses” below stress have been throwaways. All of these got here exterior the pocket, and on a majority of these, Ward was solely in a position to get the ball out as a result of he escaped a sack within the first place. If we glance simply at Ward’s pressured dropbacks inside the pocket, which is usually the truth of the NFL, his accuracy fee jumps to 70.0 p.c over 40 such makes an attempt.

Now, Ward can be susceptible to flying too near the solar along with his playmaking proclivities below stress, however that’s the way in which it goes with this sort of quarterback. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Prescott, Jordan Love, and so on., have been — or nonetheless are — the identical means. The hope is that the nice outweighs the dangerous and the ugly over the lengthy haul.

CAM WARD EXTENDS THE PLAY AND XAVIER RESTREPO SAVES IT FOR THE TD pic.twitter.com/6XcKSVHdB7

— ESPN (@espn) November 2, 2024

Which leads us to the flip facet of Ward’s charting profile. For as high quality a prospect as I consider Ward to be, he’s removed from excellent.

Ward’s accuracy deep down the center is improbable, however you would possibly discover it falls precipitously when he’s throwing deep exterior the numbers. That’s for a pair causes. One, Ward’s capability to spin the ball with some actual velocity simply works higher for throws proper down the pipe. Extra importantly, chunk of Ward’s vertical throws exterior the numbers in faculty have been one-on-one alerts that he was throwing, whether or not the receiver was open or not — a minimum of a pair occasions a sport he would simply heave a one-on-one ball to see what occurred.

That’s not dangerous for protecting defenses sincere, however it might result in some wasted performs right here and there.

The true query mark in Ward’s profile, although, is his accuracy versus zone protection, particularly in comparison with his accuracy versus man protection. It’s extremely uncommon for a quarterback to be higher versus man than zone, however Ward appears to be the exception — each as a result of his man-coverage numbers are good and since his zone-coverage numbers are mildly regarding.

It’s onerous to pinpoint precisely why that might be the case, however Ward’s play type is a minimum of partly accountable. He can hunt these huge performs to a fault. Typically, simpler beneath throws or checkdowns towards zone protection merely don’t enchantment to him. He aspires to extra, for higher or worse. Williams suffered the identical dilemma final 12 months with the Bears, and we noticed what that did to him at occasions as a rookie.

That’s going to be the rub with Ward. One readily available, his hubris and understanding of how far he can push his abilities is what makes him a top-10 decide. Then again, it’s additionally the supply of most of his worst performs. How a lot of that may be honed on the subsequent stage will decide whether or not Ward’s play type stagnates, like Jameis Winston’s, or permits him to develop right into a sawed-off Ben Roethlisberger.

GO DEEPER

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Imperfect as he could also be, Ward is the sort of participant I’m going to wager on each time. The arm expertise, athleticism, poise, and playmaking creativity are all current. Ward additionally clearly has gotten higher the extra he has performed, turning from a zero-star highschool prospect signed by Incarnate Phrase to main Miami to one in all its greatest seasons in latest reminiscence. Enchancment is a talent, and Ward appears to have it.

Ward is a step down from the elite prospects of the 2024 class, however he’s nonetheless a top-10 decide in his personal proper. In a category with out another apparent star quarterbacks, it’s straightforward to grasp why he may very well be the primary participant off the board come April.

(High photograph: Carmen Mandato / Getty Pictures)