4 the explanation why we may be overreacting to no Cinderella groups advancing to the Candy 16.
Yearly there’s a storyline that develops from the primary week of the NCAA event that dominates the nationwide sports activities dialog for these three days that separate the second spherical and the Candy 16. Sometimes, play resumes on Thursday, the main target returns to the court docket, and the “large story” from the week earlier than morphs into countless discussions in regards to the Last 4 earlier than it disappears endlessly.
This 12 months’s first week large story might have a bit longer of a shelf-life.
The subject, after all, is NIL and the switch portal eliminating Cinderella groups from the dance, and the ensuing query of whether or not or not she’s ever going to return.
Contemplating the outcomes of the primary week, the dialog was unavoidable.
Not solely did energy convention chalk reign supreme through the event’s opening week, however it do at a historic degree.
Each prime 4 seed superior out of the event’s first spherical for the primary time since 2017 and simply the fourth time within the fashionable period of the occasion. The common margin of victory within the spherical of 64 was the best of all-time.
The insanity solely acquired extra predictable within the second spherical, with zero groups seeded greater than tenth advancing to the event’s second weekend for the primary time since 2007. Energy convention groups symbolize the whole thing of the Candy 16 for the primary time ever, and a document low of solely 4 complete conferences (the 4 strongest) are represented within the second weekend. The earlier low was seven conferences.
The Huge Ten gained its first 10 video games of the event. No convention had ever finished that earlier than. The SEC despatched seven groups to the Candy 16. No convention had ever finished that earlier than.
Put merely, the haves of the game have dominated this 12 months’s event at ranges beforehand not seen.
The simple conclusion from all of that is additionally the only: Two conferences have more cash than any two conferences have had within the historical past of school sports activities. The monetary hole between the facility conferences and the mid/low main conferences has by no means been this large. And the brand new switch and NIL guidelines open the door for the faculties with all the cash to have the very best gamers, the very best coaches and the very best every part else on an annual foundation.
TLDR: The Cinderella is already lifeless. The 2025 event is simply the primary time everybody may see the corpse.
The concept a number of SEC vs. Huge Ten regional semifinals and the closest factor to a Cinderella being a gaggle of former 5-stars coached by John Calipari goes to be the brand new regular in faculty basketball might wind up being completely correct. However let’s take a look at the the explanation why possibly that is an overreaction.
Motive 1: It’s one 12 months
Certain, the portal and NIL have grown more and more extra vital since their inception, however it’s not like they weren’t across the earlier two years.
We’re just below 24 months faraway from watching a Fifth-seeded San Diego State group from the Mountain West and a Ninth-seeded Florida Atlantic group from Convention USA battling it out within the Last 4. That event additionally noticed the second 16 over 1 upset within the event’s historical past, Furman stun Virginia on the buzzer within the first spherical, and 15-seed Princeton crash the Candy 16.
A 12 months later, we had Yale, Grand Canyon, James Madison and Oakland pull first spherical stunners. Three of these 4 coming in opposition to energy convention opponents.
Possibly we have to anticipate proof past a single event to attract any sweeping conclusions about the way forward for March Insanity on this new period.
Motive 2: It’s as a lot about convention consolidation as anything
Lots has been manufactured from simply 4 conferences being represented within the event’s second weekend. That’s comprehensible. The truth that the earlier document low was seven is jarring.
It’s additionally vital to notice that simply 4 conferences being represented can be no less than partially as a result of most up-to-date serving to of convention realignment.
Two years in the past, BYU was a member of the West Coast Convention. Two years in the past, Houston was a member of the American Athletic Convention.
Each these applications, significantly Houston, have been doing fairly nicely of their outdated houses.
Motive 3: One shot, one inch, one name can change a complete narrative
The “Cinderella is lifeless” speaking factors beforehand laid out scream fairly loudly.
Nevertheless, think about a world the place Maryland’s Derik Queen’s final second shot is 5 inches greater and it clangs off the rim as an alternative fantastically banking by the online (or … and don’t throw something at me right here … he’s referred to as for touring). On this very practical world, Colorado State’s presence instantly eviscerates the “no group seeded worse than tenth” and “no group from a non-power convention” speaking factors.
It’s nonetheless a chalky event, little doubt, however the “we’ve seen the top of main upsets on this occasion” speaking level loses slightly steam.
Motive 4: This isn’t fairly as irregular as everyone seems to be making it out to be
Whenever you hear “first event with no mid-major group within the Candy 16 in a billion years,” certain, it’s an consideration grabber.
Whenever you look slightly bit nearer and see that the one “mid-major” within the second weekends of the 2016 and 2017 tournaments was Gonzaga, and that the one “mid-majors” within the second weekend of the 2019 event have been the Zags and Houston, nicely, it resonates a bit much less.
The large guys are dominating the second weekend this 12 months, however the large guys have dominated the second weekend in most years.
One last item, simply because we didn’t have a 13 by 16 seed advance this 12 months doesn’t imply that the little guys struck out fully. This event nonetheless noticed two groups from the Mountain West advance in the identical 12 months for the primary time since 2010, it noticed McNeese State from the Southland topple Clemson from the ACC, and it noticed the Missouri Valley’s Drake Bulldogs take down Missouri from the massive, unhealthy SEC.
Some years the insanity is just a bit extra sane than others.
Is Cinderella really lifeless? Possibly. There’s actually proof to assist the assumption. However that proof is basically rooted within the outcomes of 4 days of basketball.
Possibly she’s simply taking a breather.
